Winning Elections - A Political Reference

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#CARD THE CAMPAIGN STRATEGY (How To Develop and Implement Strategy) by S. J. GUZZETTA Political Campaign Consultant 2nd Edition, 1990 CD-ROM Published by: WAYZATA TECHNOLOGY INC Post Office BOX 807 Grand Rapids, Minnesota 55744 (218) 326-0597, (800) 735-7321 FAX (218) 326-0598, TECH SUPPORT (800) 377-7321 Book Published by: POLITICAL PUBLISHING COMPANY P. O. BOX 4406 ALEXANDRIA, VA 22303 (703) 549-7586 or (800) 562-6624 #ENDCARD #CARD TABLE OF CONTENTS CARD# Welcome..............................................1 TABLE OF CONTENTS....................................2 ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS.....................................3 THE CAMPAIGN STRATEGY................................4 DEDICATION...........................................5 ABOUT THE AUTHOR.....................................6 THE CAMPAIGN STRATEGY................................7 FORWARD..............................................8 CHAPTER I INTRODUCTION........................................11 CHAPTER II PHYSICAL CHARACTERISTICS............................13 A. Definition..................................13 B. Checklist A. Physical Characteristics......14 C. Resources...................................15 D. Individual Analysis.........................15 E. Analysis Chart A. Phys. Characteristics.....16 F. Assignment of Values........................17 G. Analysis of the Data........................18 H. Developing the Strategy.....................18 CHAPTER III INTELLECTUAL CHARACTERISTICS........................21 A. Definition..................................21 B. Checklist B. Intell. Characteristics.......22 C. Resources...................................23 D. Individual Analysis.........................24 E. Analysis Chart B. Intell. Characteristics..26 F. Assignment of Values........................27 G. Analysis of Data............................27 H. Developing the Strategy.....................28 CHAPTER IV EMOTIONAL CHARACTERISTICS...........................32 A. Definition..................................32 B. Checklist C. Emotional Characteristics.....32 C. Resources...................................34 D. Individual Analysis.........................35 E. Analysis Chart C. Emot. Characteristics.....36 F. Assignment of Values........................37 G. Analysis of Data............................38 H. Developing the Strategy.....................38 CHAPTER V NAME ID RATING......................................42 A. Definition..................................42 B. Relevance...................................42 C. Significance................................43 D. Resources...................................43 E. Sample Questionnaire. Name ID..............44 F. Analysis of Data............................45 G. Developing the Strategy.....................45 CHAPTER VI FAVORABILITY RATING.................................48 A. Definition..................................48 B. Relevance...................................48 C. Significance................................49 D. Resources...................................50 E. Sample Questionnaire with Demographics......51 F. Analysis of Data............................52 G. Developing the Strategy.....................55 CHAPTER VII PERSONAL HISTORY....................................58 A. Definition..................................58 B. Checklist. Personal History................59 C. Resources...................................60 D. Individual Analysis.........................60 E. Analysis Chart D. Personal History.........60 F. Assignment of Values........................62 G. Analysis of Data............................62 H. Developing the Strategy.....................63 CHAPTER VIII Business History....................................64 A. Definition...................................64 B. Checklist. Business History.................65 C. Resources....................................65 D. Individual Analysis..........................65 E. Analysis Chart E. Business History. ........67 F. Assignment of Values.........................68 G. Analysis of Data.............................69 H. Developing the Strategy......................69 CHAPTER IX Civic History.......................................71 A. Definition...................................71 B. Checklist F. Civic History...................72 C. Resources....................................73 D. Individual Analysis..........................73 E. Analysis of Data.............................73 F. Developing the Strategy......................74 G. Summarizing the Characteristics..............74 CHAPTER X Financial Resources.................................76 A. Definition...................................76 B. Available Options............................76 C. Legal Restrictions and Time Constraints......77 D. Developing the Strategy......................77 CHAPTER XI Personnel Resources.................................78 A. Definition...................................78 B. Available Options............................78 C. Legal Restrictions and Time Constraints......78 D. Developing the Strategy......................79 CHAPTER XII Demographic Characteristics of the District.........81 A. Definition...................................81 B. Relative Value...............................81 C. Available Resources..........................82 D. Developing the Strategy......................82 CHAPTER XIII Geographic Characteristics of the District..........84 A. Definition...................................84 B. Relevant Factors.............................84 C. Analysis of the District.....................84 D. Developing the Strategy......................85 CHAPTER XIV Economic Characteristics of the District............87 A. Definition...................................87 B. Relevant Factors.............................87 C. Analysis of the District.....................88 D. Developing the Strategy.....................88 CHAPTER XV Voting Characteristics of the District..............91 A. Definition...................................91 B. Relevant Factors.............................91 C. Analysis of the District.....................92 D. Developing the Strategy......................93 CHAPTER XVI Media Characteristics of the District...............95 A. Definition...................................95 B. Relevant Factors.............................95 C. Analysis of the District.....................96 D. Developing the Strategy......................96 CHAPTER XVII Impact of Other Races..............................100 A. Definition..................................100 B. Relevant Factors............................100 C. Analysis of the District....................100 D. Developing the Strategy.....................101 CHAPTER XVIII Impact of Election Regulations.....................102 A. Definition..................................102 B. Relevant Factors............................102 C. Analyzing the District......................102 D. Developing the Strategy.....................103 CHAPTER XIX Impact of Time Constraints.........................105 A. Definition..................................105 B. Relevant Factors............................105 C. Analysis of the District....................105 D. Developing the Strategy.....................106 CHAPTER XX Impact of Financial Constraints....................108 A. Definition..................................108 B. Relevant Factors............................108 C. Analysis of the District....................108 D. Developing the Strategy.....................109 CHAPTER XXI Summary 227 A. Once Upon a Time............................110 B. Moral of the Story..........................113 C. Question and Answer on Strategy.............113 Epilogue...........................................115 For Want of a Nail.................................116 Appendix...........................................117 APPENDIX A.........................................118 APPENDIX B.........................................119 APPENDIX C.........................................120 #ENDCARD #CARD THE CAMPAIGN STRATEGY (How To Develop and Implement Campaign Strategy) 2nd Edition, 1991 by S. J. Guzzetta Member, American Association of Political Consultants President, S. J. Guzzetta & Associates P. O. Box 17274 Alexandria, Virginia 22302 (703) 549-7586 Edited by: Angela L. Reese Published by: Political Publishing Company P. O. Box 17274 Alexandria, VA 22302 (703) 549-7586 LIBRARY OF CONGRESS CATALOG CARD NO.: 81-67615 ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. (c) 1989, 1991 Political Publishing Company, Alexandria, VA The text of this publication, or any part thereof, may not be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic or mechanical, including photocopying, recording, storage in an information retrieval system, or otherwise, without the prior written permission of the author. #ENDCARD #CARD ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The author gratefully acknowledges the guidance and assistance provided him throughout his career by his mentor and friend, Dr. Joel Fisher, Ph.D., J.D. of Los Angeles, California, a noted authority on the American political process and the two-party system. And to the many others, both in and out of the field of politics, who contributed so much to his education and training, especially Joe Cerrell, Cerrell Associates, Inc., Los Angeles, California and George Young, George Young and Associates, Inc., Los Angeles, California. #ENDCARD #CARD DEDICATION TO MY WIFE CAROLE WITHOUT WHOSE HELP I COULD NEVER HAVE FINISHED THIS BOOK. #ENDCARD #CARD ABOUT THE AUTHOR Mr. Guzzetta is one of the "second generation" of Political Campaign Consultants and considered by some to be in the top ten of his field. A graduate of California State University, Fullerton, he holds a degree in political science (the American political process) and minors in economics, communications, and human services. His graduate fields were the American political process and international relations. In addition to graduating with honors, he has the distinction of being one of the few individuals in the country to have completed all of his undergraduate work in 18 months. After ten years as an insurance and business consultant, during which time he was also an active volunteer on numerous political campaigns in New York and California, he entered college with the deliberate intention of becoming a Political Campaign Consultant. Under the guidance of Dr. Joel Fisher, he developed a curriculum of studies designed to provide him with the foundation for this new career. (At the time, no college or university offered a program for Political Campaign Consultants or managers. Today there are approximately seven in the country). Following his academic training, he apprenticed for a year with Joe Cerrell, Cerrell Associates, Inc., Los Angeles, California, working on campaigns in Beverly Hills and Los Angeles. This experience provided invaluable on-the-job training in many areas of campaign techniques, especially fund-raising and public relations (free media communications). After which, he continued his apprenticeship with George Young, George Young and Associates, Inc., Los Angeles, California, for two years, managing campaigns in California, Michigan and Pennsylvania. With Mr. Young he developed in-depth knowledge of media production and placement, direct mail, and the dynamics of campaign management. In 1975 he founded Campaign Management Associates, Inc. (CMA), a political consulting and management firm in Los Angeles, California. Determined to provide a "one-stop-shop" for candidates in order to help reduce a campaign's overhead costs, he continually expanded the range of services provided. For four years he continued to work on various campaigns around the country in Washington state, Iowa, Wisconsin, Florida, and California. In 1979 Mr. Guzzetta "went National" and moved to the Washington, D.C. area forming his present political consulting firm of S. J. Guzzetta and Associates in Alexandria, Virginia. During this period he has consulted on campaigns in Maryland, Virginia, Delaware, Indiana, Texas, North Carolina, Louisiana, and Michigan. In his "off" years, he lectures, conducts campaign seminars, and does research and analysis in a constant effort to improve and refine the basic techniques and procedures used in campaign management. #ENDCARD #CARD The Campaign Strategy The science or art of political command as applied to the over-all planning and conduct of political campaigns. The maneuvers designed to deceive, surprise, or overcome an opponent in order to secure a victory in an election. A plan of action which results from the practice of this science. paraphrased from The American Heritage Dictionary of the English Language #ENDCARD #CARD FORWARD The development of political campaign strategy is probably the most difficult, debatable, yet necessary part of the campaign process. The number of variables which are involved are almost countless. The number of possible solutions, alternatives, responses, are slightly less numerous. Consider the word "opponent" in the definition of campaign strategy presented on the previous page. Is the opponent referred to, the individual (or individuals, if a primary election) you as a candidate are trying to defeat? Or should it be extended to the electorate as well? Certainly an obvious case exists that the term applies to those individuals among the electorate who are working, in one capacity or another, for your opponent. It could also be extended to those people who have already made up their mind to vote for your opponent simply because he or she is your opponent. For example, they vote a straight party ticket no matter what either candidate's positions are on the issues. They are sometimes referred to as "knee jerk" or partisan voters. These people are your opponent's active or passive supporters - his or her army, if you prefer to think in military terms from which, incidentally, the word 'strategy' is derived. So it might be appropriate to think of them as your opponent. If we take as a given your workers and the people who are going to vote for you regardless of your stand on the issues are your supporters, then they are not your opponents. Though sometimes their actions or words can be as devastating to you as those of your opponent's. We will cover this later. For now, let's just put them in your camp. This leaves basically two groups in the middle. Those who plan on voting but are undecided about who they are going to vote for or those who will fail to vote, whether intentionally or not. Are these people your opponents? Probably not in a technical sense, but in the very real world of political campaigns they are treated initially as though they are your opponents, until they prove otherwise. Their uncertainty, indifference, or carelessness can cause you to lose the election. If you prefer, think of them as possible opponents. Regardless, the campaign strategy plan must encompass these individuals, and methods devised to encourage them to become supporters. More often than not, in relatively close electorates, **1** these individuals in the middle usually decide the outcome. It follows therefore, whoever develops and implements successfully a strategy designed to win over these voters, wins the election. In the real world of politics, the majority of candidates fail to identify these individuals, much less develop and carry out a strategic plan for winning them over. The result is: candidates rarely win an election, usually it is a case of their opponents losing, or figuratively speaking, beating themselves. Return to the definition. Notice the sentence which refers to maneuvers (or actions) designed to deceive, surprise, or overcome an opponent. If we include the middle groups of potential voters in the definition of opponents, does it follow that deception is a legitimate tool which can be used against them by a candidate to win? To go a step further, is it a necessary one? FootNotes: **1** Defined here as those electorates which are roughly equal among partisan voters. #ENDCARD #CARD FORWARD Some would probably say YES to both questions, others an emphatic NO! I have no intention of embroiling myself, or this manual, in that philosophical argument. It is clear that some degree of deception is certainly an integral part of virtually every political campaign. When was the last time you read a candidate's campaign literature listing his or her faults or weaknesses? Deception is practiced by omission as well as commission. I should point out here before anyone starts feeling too self-righteous, the same questions could be raised about the last resume read, or employment application. We take it as a given in our method of campaigning that it is the responsibility of the opponent to point out these omissions. Whether we approve of it or not, our society condones a certain degree of deception. As with most values, what is acceptable at one time, may not be in another. We will analyze what degree and what type of deception is now acceptable in one locale or another throughout this manual, as well as how it is carried out. The next word used in that sentence is surprise. Doing or saying something which is so unexpected by your opponent, that he or she will find it difficult to overcome. If it can be overcome at all. By its very nature this tactic involves stealth. Another negative word in some people's definition of politics. (In the real world, a necessary ingredient in most campaigns.) Sometimes it backfires, as Walter Mondale discovered following his now infamous pledge to raise taxes when elected. (An argument could be made that he should have used a little deception in this case). The element of surprise in the strategic plan finds application in all the three major parts of a campaign, that is, Field Operations, Media, and Candidate Activities. Its use is also an integral part of this manual. The third word used is overcome. In military terms the word 'blitzkrieg' probably describes it best. Loosely it means developing an assault, or an attack, so overpowering that your opponent is unable to stop it. It can involve an intensive media campaign which so dominates the consciousness of the middle ground opponents they are persuaded to join your camp, or so drastic it might even encourage defections from your opponent's camp (a la the Reagan Democrats). It could involve an intensive, well organized Field Operations program designed to ensure a well-coordinated and effective Get-Out-The-Vote (GOTV) effort on election day. It might be having a persuasive method of communication either unavailable or limited to your opponent. This tactic is probably the most socially acceptable of the three, but it has its counter-productive side. Most students of political campaigns can recount any number of elections where the charge was made a candidate was trying to "buy the election," by spending massive sums of money. In some cases, the charge sticks and produces a back-lash effect. We will be discussing this tactic also throughout THE CAMPAIGN STRATEGY. However, the most important word in that sentence, and the purpose of this book, is the fourth word - designed. All of these tactics and the legions of variables they employ must be designed, or carefully planned. Someone once pointed out that even the decision not to have a strategic plan is a strategic plan. Maybe the plan isn't a very good one, but it is a plan nevertheless. Every tactic has its downside and must be considered and evaluated. We will discuss how to do that in each of the chapters in this manual. My other book, THE CAMPAIGN MANUAL (A Definitive Study of the Modern Political Campaign Process), dealt primarily with organization and implementation of the campaign plan. This book will focus on how to develop the plan. If that sounds like I have put the proverbial cart before the horse, you're right, I did. Originally, I wrote THE CAMPAIGN MANUAL as an internal tool to facilitate staff training in campaigns where I was the consultant. #ENDCARD #CARD FORWARD It eventually evolved into a "how to" manual to organize and carry out a campaign plan. I was aware of its limitations regarding the development of campaign strategy, and for that matter, how to raise funds for a campaign. Both of these areas are extensive and justify manuals of their own. However, rather than wait with the release of THE CAMPAIGN MANUAL until they were written, I felt that THE CAMPAIGN MANUAL was comprehensive enough to be of some help to candidates and others interested in the campaign process. In the beginning of this FORWARD, I referred to the almost countless variations which can occur in the strategic planning process. No book on this subject could possibly hope to cover them all, nor provide right decisions in every situation. In THE CAMPAIGN STRATEGY, I have drawn on almost 20 years of experience as a political campaign consultant involved in campaigns throughout the country, and at all levels. I have tried to codify the major elements in the strategic planning process, as I have used them over the years. Since no other book on this subject exists (of which I am aware), I have been unable to draw on other formats or styles which might ease communications about this subject matter. I would, therefore, appreciate reading your comments about the value of this manual to you, and your suggestions on how it might be improved in future editions. Keep in mind, THE CAMPAIGN STRATEGY is a general guideline in how to develop and carry out campaign strategy. It is by no means intended for all campaign situations. Hopefully, it will help you understand the process and enable you to make the necessary extensions into your own specific campaign. As with THE CAMPAIGN MANUAL, I both apologize for the lack of annotations and a bibliography. I also wish to thank all of those individuals from whom I have learned so much throughout my career. S. J. Guzzetta #ENDCARD #CARD CHAPTER I INTRODUCTION; In the strategic planning process the single most important element is information. In the military it is called intelligence. The phrase "intelligence gathering" refers to the acquisition of all pertinent data available which might affect the outcome, either positively or negatively, of a campaign. There is a direct, emphatic correlation between the amount and quality of information available and used in the development of campaign strategy and the outcome of the campaign. As you read THE CAMPAIGN STRATEGY you will be impressed with the amount of research called for before the strategic planning process is completed. If you are in a political campaign as a candidate, a manager, or a planner, etc. try not to become discouraged. Always keep in mind the previous assertion - because it is true! When I started developing the outline for THE CAMPAIGN STRATEGY, my first inclination was to address the subject of information gathering in the first chapter. Then proceed to a discussion of how to use that information. Upon reconsideration, I became concerned that the importance of this function would be underestimated if it were done this way. So I opted for the format you are about to read. In each of the following 20 Chapters, the subject of information gathering as it pertains to that factor will be addressed. Keep in mind, however, most of this process takes place before the campaign formally begins. The 20 Chapters mentioned, cover the 20 factors which I am aware of and use in the development of campaign strategy. Not all campaigns will have to use all 20. To the extent they do, the methodology applies to all campaigns, regardless of level. Whether a candidate is running for a school board seat or U.S. Senate, the methods used within each of the factors is essentially the same. To simplify matters, I use the term District in reference to all campaigns, throughout the manual. The term is applicable to any geo-political area whether it be a Ward, City, County, State, or Congressional District, etc. The term precinct is universal throughout the United States when referring to the smallest geo-political unit. In THE CAMPAIGN STRATEGY, a District is defined as one or more precincts within the confines of a particular campaign. This is done without regard to other designations. Also in the interest of keeping things simple, I usually refer to a two candidate campaign environment. If you are in a Primary election with multiple candidates, the same guidelines will apply to all serious opponents. As you read some of this material, my remarks may appear to be blunt, or insensitive. Please be assured no personal offense is intended. This is basically a manual written to provide guidelines on how to develop and carry out campaign strategy. In the course of doing this it is necessary to examine and deal with the realities a political candidate faces in the campaign process. This should not be construed as my approving, or necessarily disapproving of these realities. To the extent I am capable of, I have tried to avoid placing my values into this discussion, short of suggesting or recommending anything illegal. #ENDCARD #CARD CHAPTER I Except where specified, the terms candidate and opponent, can be either male or female. To keep with the conversational style used in THE CAMPAIGN MANUAL, you, the reader are referred to as the candidate. I will occasionally break away from this style, when necessary to distinguish between an incumbent and a challenger. In most cases, whether the candidate is an incumbent, challenger running for the first, second or third time, it is not important enough to be considered a factor by itself. The strategic planning process outlined here must be followed. The status of the candidate might affect some aspects of the 20 factors and we will cover them when it does. Wherever possible I have tried to show how the intelligence gathering can be done by the candidate, or staff members, that is, without professional assistance. However, every effort should be made to have professional assistance whenever possible. This is especially true in the area of polling. At the very least the candidate should try to obtain a copy of a previous poll, recently completed, covering the district. Usually these can be obtained from the local, state or national Party committees, or from a candidate who ran for a higher race but whose district covered yours. Another possible source is the local Chamber of Commerce. Usually they will have conducted polls to determine the demographic makeup of the district for commercial purposes. This data is especially helpful in the application of your limited resources. Rarely is there a campaign which can afford to do everything which should be done to assure a victory. Usually it is a matter of degrees. The average campaign has limited resources, so it is urgent that they be spent prudently, that is, to achieve maximum impact. After all the information necessary is gathered and analyzed, you must then make a combination of objective and subjective decisions as to deployment of your resources. Some of these decisions will be relatively obvious, I refer to these as the objective decisions. We know for example, it is extremely rare for a candidate with low name identification to beat an opponent with high name identification. It does not require a professional to figure out that unless there is name id parity , the campaign will not be won. **1** However, there are many decisions to be made which are not so clear cut. How, for example, do you achieve parity in name identification within a 12, 8, 6, or 4 month period? What if your maximum budget for this objective is $24,000 and your in a geo-political district with 300,000 voters? In some cases, the circumstances will dictate the answers, in others, common sense or intuition will have to suffice. The best method is to have a professional campaign consultant who, by virtue of education and experience, knows how to apportion these resources in the most effective manner possible. THE CAMPAIGN STRATEGY tries to help especially those of you unable to avail yourselves of professional help by showing you how to make these decisions in certain cases, so you will have some guidance in making them yourself. The order in which the following 19 factors appear is not relevant to their importance in the strategic planning process. All are important. FootNotes: **1** It would be like trying to fight a tank with a .22 rifle. Short of a miracle happening, you wouldn't have a chance of winning. #ENDCARD #CARD CHAPTER II PHYSICAL CHARACTERISTICS; A. Definition. Physical characteristics cover not only the obvious such as height, weight, race, gender, etc. They also refer to factors such as marital status, personal mannerisms (which are observable by others) such as style of walking, talking, etc. For the most part they are factors which we attach to an individual when asked to describe them, without knowing anything about them from an emotional or intellectual point of view. Think of these characteristics as those you might find on a video and written resume, excluding eduction, personal habits, and work history. Sort of who we are as others would perceive us at this moment in time. Characteristics, if you will, about an individual which he or she was born with, or chose to adopt later in life, to complete a picture of themselves as a person. How they chose to get to this point, and the methods used, is part of their history and will be discussed in later chapters. To a certain extent the examination and impact of these physical characteristics in the strategic planning process applies to a candidate's spouse, children and close family members. To a lesser extent, they apply to the circle of friends, associates, supporters, and staff members of a candidate. What follows is a comparative checklist of many of these physical characteristics which is used to help focus your attention on this factor. A similar comparison would be completed for the respective spouses, etc. #ENDCARD #CARD CHAPTER II B. Checklist A. Physical Characteristics. Candidate Opponent 1. Gender 2. Race 3. Nationality 4. Age 5. Marital Status 6. Height 7. Weight 8. Color of Hair 9. Color of Eyes 10. Facial Hair-moustache/beard 11. Glasses (Y/N) 12. Athletic (Y/N) 13. Physically Attractive (Y/N) 14. Physical Bearing 15. Condition of Health 16. Physical Handicap 17. Speech Impediment (Y/N) 18. Occupation 19. Place of Birth 20. Number of Children 21. Homeowner (Y/N) 22. Make of Car Owned-for./dom. 23. Estimated Net Worth 24. Party Affiliation #ENDCARD #CARD CHAPTER II C. Resources. Now that we know what information we need, the next step is gathering it. For this particular factor, it should be relatively easy. Much of it can be determined by personal observation or obtained from your opponent's campaign literature. Most of the literature about both you the candidate, and your opponent is relatively objective. Those characteristics which are more subjective should be determined by others. Modesty might prevent you, for example, from putting down YES to item 17. If information is not readily available in published sources, then call and ask for it. Rarely will individuals, or their staff members, be reticent about sharing this information. In fact, most candidates include a biographical profile in their initial press kits given out at the time of their announcement of candidacy. An obvious signal your opponent has something to hide which could be politically damaging, would be if he or she did not make this information available, for example, #18 Condition of Health. D. Individual Analysis. After this information has been gathered you and your advisors must critically analyze the results. This is the difficult part - the analysis, if it is to have a high degree of validity, must be from the perspective of the electorate (the voting public). This may or may not be in sync with your perspective. Also it must be done without regard to value judgments. To complicate this further, the electorate is rarely uniform in its evaluation of these characteristics. What might be significant in a positive sense to one group, might be a negative factor to another, or relatively neutral to still another. **1** For example, if you are white it would probably be a positive factor if running for political office in Newport Beach, CA, but could be a negative factor in Detroit, MI. An Italian-American might find an ethnic sounding name ending in a vowel an over-all positive factor in Buffalo, NY, but could have a real problem in Macon, GA. To help the strategic decision making process we need to first segment the electorate within our district into more manageable groups which are relatively easy to identify. The two most common groups which are usually indicated on most voter registration files are gender and race. There could be many more groupings and as a rule, the more levels segmented, the more precise is the analysis. When doing polls, for example, we might try to determine age groups, educational levels, income levels, marital status, religious preference, nationality, party affiliation, occupation, etc. We would then compare the ratio of these groups to the census data information and determine the appropriate percentages. Then interview representative samples of each of these groupings to determine their feelings about a particular characteristic or position on an issue, etc. In this manner we can test what percentage of a particular group is favorable, unfavorable, or undecided, about specific characteristics, candidates, issues, etc. If, for example, 75% of all white females, and 60% of all white males, in a district comprised of 90% white voters, felt that beards created a negative image, and you have one, you might want to think about getting a shave. In these early stages of a campaign most candidates do not have available the services of a professional polling firm. This is usually due to a lack of resources. So we need to improvise. The following chart is a simple guideline to illustrate this process. At best, it will focus attention on the impact these characteristics might have on the voting public. FootNotes: **1** These are normally referred to as pluses or minuses. Many times a difficult strategic decision is made only if the pluses far exceed the negatives. In other words, you gain far more than you lose. #ENDCARD #CARD CHAPTER II E. Analysis Chart A. Physical Characteristics. White White Black Black Hisp. Hisp. Item: Male Female Male Female Male Female 1. Sex - + 2. Race - + 3. Nat'l. - + 4. Age - + 5. Marital - + 6. Height - + 7. Weight - + 8. Hair - + 9. Eyes - + 10. F/Hair - + 11. Glasses - + 12. Athltc - + 13. Attrac - + 14. Bearing - + 15. Health - + 16. Handcap - + 17. Speech - + 18. Occ. - + 19. POB - + 20. #Child - + 21. Home - + 22. Car - + 23. Worth - + 24. Party - + #ENDCARD #CARD CHAPTER II F. Assignment of Values. The next step is to assign a positive or negative value for each item in each grouping. In polling they would use percentages of the whole sample **1** to determine these values. In a more simplistic way, we will too. One way is to consider each item and intuitively assign a value. For example, you could presume that being a black candidate among black male voters would be a positive and put an X in that block. You could then presume that having a mustache would be a positive among all female voters and put X's in those blocks. You could then presume that being 5'2" and weighing 250 lbs. would be a turn-off for all voters and put an X in the negative blocks for all voters. **2** Of course what you are doing in this situation, is extending your own prejudices and impressions onto each of these groups. You might be correct in your assessment, but, obviously, you could be just as wrong. Remember this is still part of the information gathering process. The quality of the information has a direct bearing on the soundness of your strategy and the outcome of the election. You could improve this process slightly by having a disinterested person make these assessments but you would probably just be receiving an extension of his/her prejudices and impressions. A better way would be to ask a friend to form what is referred to as a "focus group." A group of individuals (usually 14 - 16), who are roughly proportional to the breakout of groupings chosen within your district. For example, if your district consisted of 52% females, 48% males, and 82% white and 18% black, your focus group might consist of eight women and seven men with two of the women being black and one of the men. The interviewer, your friend, would then ask the focus group to give their reaction to the various characteristics as stated, or they could be in print form, eliciting a written response. To preserve some degree of integrity, neither the candidate, nor the opponent can be identified. A majority of positive responses to a characteristic, causes an X **3** to be placed in the particular block, vice-versa for the negative responses. The problems with this method are obvious. Finding a friend and fourteen to sixteen people willing to go through this exercise can be very difficult in itself. **4** However difficult, it is usually preferable to your first option. Incidentally, a focus group is used throughout the country by major political candidates, and in the worlds of commerce and industry. It is considered one, and I stress one, of several information gathering techniques found to be effective. Normally though, the results are correlated with other information gathering techniques before major decisions are made. Also the focus groups are conducted by professionals and they are usually larger and more representative of various levels of groupings. Beyond this, as stated before, you could have a professional poll taken. However they are expensive and the more factors tested, the more expensive they become. **5** In most campaigns, the intuitive feelings of the candidate, and maybe the closest advisors are going to be used. It is important to understand that even this is far more preferable than doing nothing. One last word on this and then we will move on. If you are able to put together a focus group, be sure to expose them to your characteristics, as well as your opponent's. It is critical that you be as realistic about your own positives and negatives, as you are of your opponent. If you, or an advisor, are doing it, try to be as brutally honest about it as possible. You should presume your opponent is doing an analysis on you. This is no time to let your ego manifest itself. FootNotes: **1** The sample drawn is a microscopic representation of the whole electorate within a specific district and is usually referred to as a "representative sample." How large the sample has to be in order to be valid in any given district is somewhat debatable. Usually the larger the sample, the less the margin of error. This is normally referred to in terms of plus or minus so many percentage points. In an average Congressional District of 500,000 people a sample size of 500 people, corresponding to the major demographic groupings, is considered valid within + or - 3%. Lately I have noticed national polls conducted with a sample of 500 people and claiming validity within + or - 3%. Frankly, I have a hard time accepting their validity. **2** In a situation such as this you would probably want to concentrate on radio commercials, only. Your opponent would probably include you in at least half of his/her TV commercials. **3** You could use the actual number of responses indicating a positive or negative reaction. **4** Professionals who do this type of polling usually have to hire individuals to participate. **5** A benchmark poll consisting of 500 interviews and 35 to 40 questionswill average $25,000.00. #ENDCARD #CARD CHAPTER II G. Analysis of the Data. You have reached the point now where, for this factor (physical characteristics), you should have two sets of data. The raw factual data about the physical characteristics of you and your opponent (and possibly each other's spouses), and the impact value data, that is showing how these characteristics might be perceived by the electorate. Put the charts side by side and study them. Add up the pluses or minuses (either the number of Xs or the numeric values if you used those), and see how each of you come out over-all. Are the ratios relatively equal? Has a pattern emerged which reasoning would suggest might be significant? Notice if characteristics which cannot be altered, such as gender, race, age, etc. are especially negative, or positive. What about those characteristics which could be altered, or modified, such as height, weight, facial hair, etc.? Are there significant differences between the perceptions of the men and women, whites and blacks? Be analytical, not judgmental. Now do a comparative analysis, item by item, between you and your opponent. Be critical, not wishful. If being a black candidate is a definite negative in the district, acknowledge it and move on to the next characteristic. Make up a list showing in one column those characteristics which were perceived as positives and in another column, the negatives. In a third column, show your opponent's positives, and the negatives in a fourth column. Now study this page and put an X through those same characteristics which rated positive responses for both of you. Next circle the same characteristics which rated negative responses. Look at what items remain, if any, in each column for both of you. Who has the most unique positive characteristics, and the most negative? Are they fixed characteristics, or modifiable? H. Developing the Strategy. As a general rule in developing campaign strategy, you stress the positives and ignore the negatives. However, you should always presume your opponent will not be so accommodating and be prepared to offset, to the extent possible, the revelation of your negatives. Simultaneously, you might directly or indirectly expose your opponent's negatives while ignoring his or her positives. Direct exposure risks the charge of negative campaigning, but can be very effective. Indirect exposure is more subtle, but could be missed by the electorate. A classic example of both these rules involves the various campaigns of Mr. Tom Bradley, Mayor of Los Angeles. Mayor Bradley is a black person in a city which at the time he first ran, had a black population equal to 18% of the total residents. Realizing his race was then a negative factor among the electorate, his campaign drew minimal attention to this characteristic. Most print advertising featured his name, his accomplishments, and the office he was seeking, but not his picture. The few pole signs which did have his picture were strategically placed in the black and hispanic sections of L.A. Even these were done in such a way that a casual glance did not immediately identify him as a black. The picture quality was poor, as though it was done on a cheap press. This was a definite case of ignoring the perceived negative. Most of the electronic commercials were on radio, while the TV commercials were kept to a minimum. Conversely, his opponent, former Mayor Sam Yorty, taking his re-election for granted, did not do anything to directly, or indirectly, expose this negative characteristic. The rest as they say, is history. Tom Bradley beat Sam Yorty in one of the closest elections in L.A.'s history. A sizable percentage of the people who were polled after the election, did not know Tom Bradley was black when they voted for him. #ENDCARD #CARD CHAPTER II Four years later when Tom Bradley ran for re-election that particular characteristic in the city of Los Angeles was no longer a negative factor. The job Mr. Bradley had done as Mayor neutralized it. However, it did show up again when Mayor Bradley tried to become the governor of California. This time, his opponent wasn't so accommodating, or complacent. The research indicated that the race characteristic was a negative statewide, so again the decision was made to downplay it by the Bradley campaign. Gov. Deukmajian's campaign wasn't about to let him pull it off a second time. They realized a direct exposure would produce a backlash effect, so they took an indirect approach. Under normal circumstances, the last thing a candidate would do is feature the opponent in his or her commercials. However, in this case they knew unless the electorate realized he was black, he would win. So they featured shots of Tom Bradley in most of their commercials and saturated the airwaves throughout the state. It worked. Gov. Deukmajian won handily. As a footnote, the last time these two ran against each other, it was almost a dead heat. Other factors have taken center stage. So there are many ways to handle the positive and negatives of physical characteristics if you know what they are and how to use them. This is usually true regardless of their nature. As another example, I know of one candidate who had two physical characteristics which produced laughable results. This is one of the worst kind of negative reactions. He was decidedly bow-legged with a slight waddle to his walk, and he was relatively short, 5'8" with a buxom wife who stood at 5'10", without shoes. The sight of the two of them walking together was reminiscent of a keystone comedy. While these were negative characteristics, his face and bearing conveyed a positive image and his status as a husband and father were definite positive ratings against the opponent's negative ratings in both these areas. This dilemma was resolved by always filming him from the waist up when walking, unless it was a long shot. In one scene they used a telephoto lens to shoot him coming down the courthouse steps, then zoomed in quickly to pick him up from the waist up. The viewer saw him in motion but was unable to detect the awkward walk. Except for a family portrait, with his wife sitting, flanked by the children, and him standing behind her with his hand on her shoulder. His campaign never took other pictures of them together in the same scene. Again, his opponent, a long term incumbent, was complacent and did not know of this negative physical characteristic, or if he did, chose not to use it against him. Review the list of physical characteristics. Is your age a positive and your opponent's a negative? For example, are you 55 and your opponent, 32. How do you capitalize on it and turn it to your advantage? First make sure your picture is on all visual campaign material. Use the word experience as often as possible, not only in listing your accomplishments, but in relating your life experiences, the happy and the sad occasions. Experience usually connotates competency, trustworthiness, and efficiency. All are desirable traits in a leader. To point out your opponent's lack of it without appearing to be negative, envelope the attack in a compliment. Praise what a bright, young person your opponent is and how proud you are to see such bright, young people getting involved in politics. The day will come when they will become such fine leaders. Comment on how similar he or she is to your son, or daughter, and then recount an experience you had with your child when he or she was a youngster. The point will be made. #ENDCARD #CARD CHAPTER II This is sometimes referred to as putting a silk glove on an iron fist. We could go through this whole list and develop a method to handle each of them in the same way - if you are aware of them and willing to use them. Remember, we are not discussing relevance here, or values. Note also, I have not in any way suggested the fabrication of any physical characteristic. We are concerned here with the method used to develop a strategy to win. I leave it to the individual and the electorate to decide the issues of relevance and values. #ENDCARD #CARD CHAPTER III INTELLECTUAL CHARACTERISTICS; A. Definition. Intellectual characteristics include intelligence levels, education, philosophical disposition, mental stability, and the thought processes. Unlike the physical characteristics, they are not so readily apparent. The definitions can be statistical, subjective, or objective in nature. Some we may be born with, like a basic IQ, or a propensity to mental stability, but the others are usually acquired. These characteristics though not visible to the naked eye, become clear through the achievement of certain scores on tests throughout one's life, the manifestation of one's ability to cope with problems without resorting to drugs or alcohol, the spoken or written pronunciations made about the legal, moral, or social issues facing society, and how one conducts his or her daily life. Accurately or not, all of these provide us with clues about the intellectual characteristics of an individual. To some extent the examination and impact of these intellectual characteristics in the strategic planning process apply, as with the physical characteristics, to a candidate's spouse, children, close family members, circle of friends, associates, supporters, and staff members. The following comparative checklist includes many of these intellectual characteristics. #ENDCARD #CARD CHAPTER III B. Checklist B. Intellectual Characteristics. Candidate Opponent 1. Estimated IQ Level 2. Highest Education Level 3. University Attended 4. G.P.A./SAT Scores 5. Special Academic Honors 6. Profession/Title 7. Associations (Present) 8. Economic Philosophy (L,M,C) 9. Political Philosophy (L,M,C) 10. Social Philosophy (L,M,C) 11. Personal Philosophy (L,M,C) 12. Alcoholic (Y/N) 13. Drug User (Y/N) 14. Neurotic (Y/N) 15. Articulate (Y/N) 16. Hobbies L = Liberal. M = Moderate. C = Conservative. #ENDCARD #CARD CHAPTER III C. Resources. Some of this information should be available from the same sources mentioned previously. Items such as education level, university or college attended, special academic honors, profession and title, plus present associations are usually featured on a candidate's campaign literature. If not, the direct approach will usually work. If your opponent has ever been in public life, the local newspaper will probably have a file on him or her with much of this information in it. Normally these files are available to the public. Other items might be more difficult to determine and you might have to make an estimate. IQ levels, for example, are rarely published, so you might have to talk to some individuals who personally know your opponent to see if he or she, in their opinion, is of average intelligence, above average, or highly intelligent. The philosophical leanings of an individual can usually be inferred from their position on various issues, either in writings or in speeches. Also their known associates, or people whom they have previously supported might provide a clue. Most people usually follow set patterns. If they are conservative in their personal life style, they are usually conservative in the other three areas of philosophy. Observe where they live, the type of house and neighborhood they live in, the kind of car they drive, the manner of dress they choose, the way they wear their hair, etc. All are clues. I cannot recall the last social liberal I met who had a crew-cut and wore a three piece suit, with wing-tip shoes. Occasionally, you will find people who are moderate on social matters but conservative on economic ones, but rarely will you find someone who goes from one extreme in one area to another in a different area. Since these labels tend to be confusing, I will list some of the stereotypical tendencies, as I see them. You can add more if you like. Conservative Moderate Liberal Economic Less taxes Less taxes More taxes Free market Mixed Govt controlled Free trade Some restriction Protectionist Anti-union Indifferent Pro-union Balanced budget Balanced budget Not necessary Political Republican Repub./Democrat Democrat Less government Moderate govt. More government Votes regularly Usually votes Occasionally votes Strong defense Strong defense Soft on defense Favors SDI Not certain Against SDI Social Anti-abortion Uncertain Pro-choice Prayer in school Prayer in school No school prayer Death penalty Certain cases No death penalty Anti-drugs Anti-drugs Legalize marijuana Against ERA Favors ERA Favors ERA Personal Buick Chevrolet Toyota Wool Wool/Cotton Polyester Shaves daily Skips a day Likes beards Libertarian Soft Determinist Determinist Church regularly Sometimes Rarely Cocktails Beer/Wine Wine In D.C. metro area only: Redskins Redskins Redskins #ENDCARD #CARD CHAPTER III The list, and granted some of the personal traits are tongue-in-cheek, does help to establish which ones can be linked to previous biases of the electorate. Reference the campaign between George Bush and Michael Dukakis and the strong attempts made by the Bush campaign to make Dukakis synonymous with liberal. In that campaign they were dealing with national research which indicated the majority of the electorate considered themselves moderate or conservative. Notice on my list how moderates tend to identify with conservatives on more issues than they do with liberals. This might not be the case in your district. Your research should attempt to make this determination. About items 12, 13, and 14, you will have to rely on reputation as a guide in answering them as they apply to your opponent. Avoid becoming to clinical about the word neurotic. Basically see if there are any phobias which might be significant. It might be strategically important, for instance, if you are running for Congress in Alaska and your opponent has a fear of flying. I placed articulate in this list because, in the collective mind of the electorate, unless there is a physical impediment, there is usually a direct correlation between a person's intellectual capability and their ability to express themselves clearly about their thoughts and ideas. D. Individual Analysis. Again, after the data is gathered, a critical analysis of the results must be made from the perspective of the electorate. This may or may not be in sync with your own. As with the physical characteristics, the electorate is rarely uniform in its evaluation of these characteristics. I have already alluded to some of the problems with regard to philosophical differences. These problems are further complicated because the segmentation necessary to develop valid intelligence goes deeper than the two levels (race and gender) we used in the previous chapter. Some of the other factors which must be considered are: age levels, educational levels, income levels, occupation, religion, party affiliation, marital status, locale, and nationality, in addition to race and gender. The factors are referred to as the demographics of a given area. As with race and gender, you can usually find out how your district is divided among these various groupings, in terms of raw numbers or percentages, by checking the census tract data available. You can usually obtain this at your main public library, Chamber of Commerce, or sometimes at your U.S. Representative's district office. You might also check with your local university or college in the Research Science Dept., or a local radio or TV station, since they do demographic analysis for their clients. Also check to see if a previous candidate had a recent professional poll taken covering your district. The pollster will have checked the census tract data in preparing their sampling and the demographic breakout they arrived at should be adequate for your analysis. E. Analysis Chart B. Intellectual Characteristics. To include all the possible variables on this chart would be impractical, so I am going to illustrate only two in order to demonstrate how it is done. Usually you would pick and choose certain demographic breakouts based on availability and significant percentages. For example, married and unmarried would produce large percentages when applied to the electorate, as would male and female. Race might, as could nationality in some districts. Income levels could be segmented by $10,000. marks or you could go with over $50,000. annual income and under $50,000. Education the same way, more than high school graduate, high school graduate or less. Remember the more closely defined, the more viable the results. #ENDCARD #CARD CHAPTER III What specific percentage to use when determining significance is a debatable point among professionals. Generally speaking, in most races below U.S. Senate in large states, I use 10% as my cut-off point. Unless a particular demographic characteristic makes up at least 10% of the whole electorate, I do not single that grouping out for impact analysis on the basis of that characteristic. When making these determinations the basic consideration should always be gender. Build the other demographic considerations from this starting point. There is a greater propensity for men earning $50,000. per year to vote alike among themselves as a grouping, than there is between men and women earning $50,000. per year. As Walter Mondale's campaign found to their chagrin, there was a vast difference between the way Italian-American men reacted to an Italian-American woman vice-presidential candidate (Geraldine Ferraro), and the way Italian-American women reacted. Generally this is the hierarchy of demographic variables I use, in ascending order: 1. Gender 2. Race 3. Marital Status 4. Age Levels 5. Party Affiliation 6. Income Levels 7. Education Levels 8. Nationality 9. Religion 10. Occupation Groups 11. Locale In some cases a lower variable is so dominant it can take precedence over a higher variable. For example, the feelings between Arab-Americans and Jewish-Americans are usually very intense and will often override the variables of gender, race, age, etc. #ENDCARD #CARD CHAPTER III Analysis Chart B. Intellectual Characteristics White White Black Black Hisp. Hisp. Item: Male Female Male Female Male Female 1. I.Q. - + 2. Ed.Lvl. - + 3. Univ. - + 4. G.P.A. - + 5. Honors - + 6. Prof. - + 7. Assoc. - + 8. Econ. - + 9. Pol. - + 10. Social - + 11. Personal- + 12. Alch. - + 13. Drugs - + 14. Neurotic- + 15. Artic. - + 16. Hobbies - + #ENDCARD #CARD CHAPTER III F. Assignment of Values. As in the previous chapter, essentially you have three choices in determining the relative values for each of these intellectual characteristics. You can use your intuitive feelings, or those of your advisors, a focus group, or a professional poll. If you use intuitive feelings, remember to be as critical as possible in assigning values to yourself and your opponent. Presuming you are able to put together a focus group, try to define the composition of the group along the lines of the demographic variables corresponding to your district. If for example, 30% of your district is made up of Polish-Americans, then 30% of your focus group (4-5) should be of Polish descent. If the educational breakout of your district is 30% less than high school, 60% high school graduates, and 10% some college or higher, then your focus group should reflect this breakout as well. If 74% are married and 26% single, try to approximate this delineation, etc. Obviously we all have many characteristics, so the same people in your focus group can encompass several of them. This does not necessarily bias the validity of the responses. Rarely do people approach a problem, or have a reaction to a characteristic, from the same reference (or starting) point. For that matter, even the starting reference point can be a function of timing. How a person reacts to a perceived problem at the age of 50 is not necessarily the same as they would at age 30, even with all other factors being relatively equal. Outside stimuli can also be a mitigating factor. Times of war, social or economic crisis, etc. can also affect a person's reference point. Frankly, an individual's mood at any given point in time, even on the same day, could also be a factor. It is for this reason pollsters and political consultants prefer to conduct a series of polls over a given period of time. They can then observe averages and trends which add considerable validity to the results. You can follow the same procedure with your focus group by conducting several over a period of time. G. Analysis of Data. As with the physical characteristics, you now have two sets of data to consider. Again look at them side by side and add up the pluses and minuses. Has a pattern emerged in this characteristic? Are the ratios relatively equal? Most of these characteristics are fixed, i.e. unable to be altered significantly. Major exceptions are 8, 9, 10, and 11 regarding philosophy. Are there significant differences between the perceptions of the men and women, whites and blacks? Be analytical, not judgmental. Again do a comparative analysis, item by item, between you and your opponent. Be critical, not wishful. If being an economic liberal is a definite negative in the district, acknowledge it and move on to the next characteristic. Make up a list showing in one column those characteristics which were perceived as positive and in another, the negatives, for you. In a third column, show your opponent's positives. Put the negatives in a fourth column. Now study the chart and put an X through those same characteristics which rated positive responses for both of you. Next circle the same characteristics which rated negative responses. Look at what is left, if any, in each column for both of you. Who has the most unique positive characteristics, and the most negative? Are they fixed characteristics, or modifiable? #ENDCARD #CARD CHAPTER III H. Developing the Strategy. Developing strategy based on this set of characteristics is analogous to going through a mine field. You must pick your way through very carefully. The wrong decision can be very explosive. The first seven items, for example, could be very significant if there is a strong differential between you and your opponent. If you are a Princeton graduate, with an above average IQ, who made the Dean's list with a G.P.A. of 3.95 and your opponent barely made it out of high school, there is a real differential between you. Should you make this an issue in the campaign? Very definitely. The correct strategy though would be to do it by accentuating the positive. If you blatantly call attention to it with the electorate, you run the risk of being labeled an elitist and producing a backlash effect. A case of the minuses exceeding the pluses. Include in your brochure and biographical data handouts a listing of your academic accomplishments. Stress the value of education in the decision making process. Share some of the personal experiences you had while attending college, in working to get there, and the meaning it had in your life. The electorate will get the message. Whatever you do, do not engage in the intellectual snobbery manifested by George Bush's attempt to put down Mike Dukakis's tenure at Harvard. Coming from a Yale graduate, this tactic was sure to explode. Other delicate areas would be 12, 13, and 14. If you are an alcoholic, but a member of Alcoholics Anonymous or some other rehabilitation program, you would want to bring this fact out in the open at the start of the campaign. Phrase it in terms which describe it as a personal victory over a serious disease. The same would apply to drugs. On the other hand, if you are using these substances and are not receiving treatment, you should seriously re-consider your decision to run for public office. Your use of drugs, or excessive use of alcohol, is bound to surface sooner or later, and the political results would be disastrous (in addition to the fact that the use of drugs is illegal.) If you have absolute proof these characteristics apply to your opponent and he or she is not receiving treatment, you would handle it as follows. First send your opponent a certified letter asking him or her to withdraw from the race in lieu of these facts. State that he or she is obviously not qualified to hold public office. Enclose supporting documentation and indicate this information will be made public unless a withdrawal is forthcoming within one week. If your opponent does not withdraw, call a press conference and disclose the information you have obtained. Advise the media of the actions you have taken as far as notifying your opponent. Be sure to indicate this action is being taken with the deepest regrets. Stress that the citizens of your district deserve the best representation possible and your opponent would be unable to provide it. Previously I gave an example of neurotic behavior with regard to a fear of flying as being an impediment to effective service in public office. There are, of course, other types of neurosis which could be burdensome. A fear of crowds would certainly be a handicap. Usually this information is not exploited publicly. If it does apply, it is normally divulged by a third person. **1** Using it directly could produce a backlash. As with alcoholism or drug use, much depends on the particulars. Is treatment being received, or not? How debilitating is it under the specific circumstances of the office being sought and the locale of the district? FootNotes: **1** A tactic which is employed often when scandalous or improper behavior needs to be exposed. #ENDCARD #CARD CHAPTER III Associations and hobbies provide clues to possible areas of criticizing. Much was made, for example, of Mike Dukakis' membership in the American Civil Liberties Union by George Bush. It was offered as proof of Mr. Dukakis' liberal philosophy and an attempt was made to prove guilt by association. Regardless of the merits, in the electorate's collective mind, or at least a majority of them, the ACLU is an extremely liberal organization. Similarly, membership in Posse Comitatus, or the Ku Klux Klan, would be generally construed as an indication of extreme conservatism. If your opponent belongs to an organization about which you are uncertain, investigate. Hobbies also provide clues to intellectual characteristics. It is commonly presumed that reading, playing chess, or solving math problems as a hobby, is an indication of a high intellectual capability. Normally the electorate will respond favorably to these hobbies and most involving the pursuit of better health, like tennis, jogging, golf, and swimming. If however, there is a pattern of high-risk types of hobbies such as sky-diving, mountain climbing, scuba diving, and racing, the inference could be made the person would be reckless with the affairs of government. The most politically volatile intellectual characteristics are those dealing with philosophy. I have broken these characteristics into four areas: economic, political, social, and personal. When developing strategy you must be specific about which area you are addressing. As stated previously, it is not unusual for an individual to be conservative in one area and moderate in another. **1** What is true of the individual is also true of the electorate. This is why using a simplistic label to describe yourself, or your opponent, as a liberal, moderate, or conservative, is usually ineffective. In the beginning of the Bush/Dukakis campaign for President, the Bush campaign referred to Mike Dukakis as a liberal. It didn't stick. The electorate looked at Mike Dukakis and the visual image they received was of a conservative. **2** The early polls indicated a majority of the electorate actually believed he was more conservative than George Bush. Not until the Bush campaign began qualifying the liberal characteristic they were trying to pin on him, did they succeed. When they began attacking him as a social liberal citing his stand on abortion and referring to the convicted murderer's weekend leave policy, the polls began to change. They followed up with his stance on the Pledge of Allegiance in school and his membership in the ACLU and the political liberal label stuck. In September, 1988 the polls changed and George Bush took a significant lead. Now the electorate could identify the label and a majority at that point in time, were not comfortable with it. Determining the philosophy of a majority of the electorate at a given time and in a given locale is difficult. So many factors can exert influence on these areas of philosophy that only regular monitoring can pinpoint it accurately. Unless you have access to extensive polling data you will have to turn again to your focus group as an alternative. Incidentally, the national political parties do extensive polling in these areas. Usually their research divisions will share this information upon request. Also several of the national polling firms and newspaper publications provide a subscriber service, sharing the results of their constant polling. These services tend to be expensive, usually costing anywhere from $800.00 to $2,000.00 per year. You might want to check with your main public library, or the Political Science Dept. of your local university, to see if they are subscribers to any of them. FootNotes: **1** It is also not unusual for people to be divergent within a specific area of philosophy. **2** In his personal lifestyle (philosophy), Mr. Dukakis would fall into the moderate category. #ENDCARD #CARD CHAPTER III One guideline I use in trying to make these determinations is to apply the tenets of the basic schools of philosophy. Essentially there are three of them. There are those who believe all humans have a free will and are totally responsible for their actions as adults. In philosophy they are referred to as libertarians. **1** At the opposite are those who believe our actions as adults are determined by education and the cultural values imposed on us from birth through adolescence and subsequently reinforced by society as adults. They are known as determinists. In between are those referred to as soft determinists. They believe humans are born with a free will and are ultimately responsible for their actions as adults, but they allow for the mitigating circumstances of inculturation and make some allowances for human behavior. In political terms, I usually think of Republican/Conservatives as a modern extension of libertarian philosophy. The Democrat/Liberal is an extension of determinism, and the moderates of both parties as the soft determinists. In deference to the philosophers, I am the first to admit this is a very simplistic resolution of this problem. However it has worked well for me over the years and I suggest it here as a possible guide for you in the strategy making process. As you apply this guide, you will find it is very helpful in predicting the reference point, and therefore, subsequent solution being proposed by your opponent to the economic, political, and social issues currently prevalent. Libertarians tend to think in terms of: the government that governs least, governs best. The determinists believe in government direction over our lives from the cradle to the grave. The soft determinists float somewhere in between these views. Since they are usually in the majority, at least in this century, they are constantly being pushed or pulled by one faction or the other. This poses an interesting problem with regard to the development of campaign strategy. As a candidate for public office, by definition, your strategy must be to win the election. To do this you must reflect the will of the majority of the electorate, or appear to do so. If you are a conservative or liberal, do you stick to your principles and publicly espouse them? Or do you shift your position on the issues to the moderate school of thought which is currently prevalent? In 1964, Barry Goldwater went with his principles and lost to Lyndon Johnson. In 1972, George McGovern went with his and lost to Richard Nixon. In 1984, Walter Mondale went with his principles and lost to Ronald Reagan. The expression, flip-flopping on the issues, refers to this tendency of political candidates to find the current middle ground and then move to use it. Winning the battle is the critical factor. The usual justification is once the power of office is achieved, they can then lead the electorate to their way of thinking. Is this what your opponent is doing? Is this what you are doing? If your opponent is doing it, you can make it a major issue of the campaign by documenting it and then exposing it. Make it clear your opponent is only doing this to get elected. Once in office the hidden agenda will surface to the regret of the electorate. Make it an issue of integrity in the campaign. **2** If you are accused of doing it (and are guilty), you might respond by admitting to the error of your ways, explaining how or why you changed your position, and finish with how you are a stronger person for having gone through the process. The cliche, "I didn't leave the Party, the Party left me," still works. FootNotes: **1** Not to be confused with the political party known as the Libertarians. **2** Be careful you do not accuse your opponent of flip-flopping on an issue which you did. Referring again to the Bush/Dukakis campaign, Mike Dukakis accused George Bush of having voted once to limit an increase in Social Security benefits. What he failed to point out was he also voted against that particular increase. The charge of hypocrisy raised by the media did Dukakis more harm, than his charge against George Bush. #ENDCARD #CARD CHAPTER III The final characteristic in this chapter is item 15, articulate. Previously I referred to how the electorate perceives a correlation between intellectual capability and the ability to articulate your position on a given issue, or subject. In developing the campaign strategy using this characteristic consider this. If your opponent has difficulty in being articulate, possibly due to a lack of formal training, you would challenge him or her to as many public debates as is reasonably possible. This would also be true, if by virtue of your training, you were clearly superior, in this regard, to your opponent. However, keep in mind this characteristic is modifiable. I remember one very intensive campaign for a city council seat in a major city. The polls showed the race to be extremely close, with the trend going in the direction of the challenger two weeks before the election. The city councilman was very bright and had a firm grip on the issues. However, due to his background, he really lacked debating skills. His opponent on the other hand was very experienced in debating and believed the election would be secured after this debate. It was to be the only televised debate of the campaign and viewership was expected to be high. His campaign called in a speech communications specialist and during the week before the debate they worked together intensively. The councilman did not win the debate, but neither did his opponent. The long anticipated knock-out punch was never landed and the councilman went on to win a week later by less than 200 votes. The opponent's strategy was sound. Exploit an obvious weakness to win over the undecideds among the electorate. The councilman's strategy was also sound. Recognize the weakness, shore up its defenses, and neutralize the attack. #ENDCARD #CARD CHAPTER IV EMOTIONAL CHARACTERISTICS; A. Definition. Emotional characteristics are those we normally associate with behavioral traits. Those traits which help define our personality and character. The feelings we have which shape or influence our intellectual and physical capabilities. They are difficult to define. They are even more difficult to research. You are almost totally dependent on the impressions of others for their definition. Occasionally they become public knowledge through personal exposure. Ed Muskie shedding tears in New Hampshire gave the electorate insight into one of his emotional characteristics. The Watergate tapes enlightened many about Richard Nixon. Chappaquidick provided several clues about some of Ted Kennedy's emotional characteristics. Most of us though, become very adept at hiding our emotional characteristics. Those who want to know them usually have to infer them through observation. When we think of emotions, words like joy, anger, hate, happy, sad, love, etc. come to mind. Emotional characteristics are the manifestations of these feelings. They are measured in degrees of relativity. All humans experience them. Some more or less, than others. It is that differential which becomes important in the strategy making process. In a limited way, the impact of these emotional characteristics apply to a candidate's spouse. The following checklist includes many of these characteristics. Though arbitrary, I have put sexual preference and religion on this list. B. Checklist C. Emotional Characteristics. Candidate Opponent 1. Affectionate (Y/N) 2. Argumentative (Y/N) 3. Arrogant (Y/N) 4. Belligerent (Y/N) 5. Calculating (Y/N) 6. Caring (Y/N) 7. Charismatic (Y/N) 8. Compassionate (Y/N) 9. Confident (Y/N) 10. Courageous (Y/N) 11. Cruel (Y/N) 12. Cunning (Y/N) 13. Defensive (Y/N) 14. Deliberate (Y/N) 15. Demagogic (Y/N) 16. Demonstrative (Y/N) 17. Dynamic (Y/N) 18. Energetic (Y/N) 19. Generous (Y/N) #ENDCARD #CARD CHAPTER IV Checklist C. Continued. 20. Gentle (Y/N) 21. Gesticulating (Y/N) 22. Happy (Y/N) 23. Heterosexual (Y/N) 24. Honest (Y/N) 25. Industrious (Y/N) 26. Insecure (Y/N) 27. Integrity (Y/N) 28. Introverted (Y/N) 29. Kind (Y/N) 30. Loquacious (Y/N) 31. Miserly (Y/N) 32. Modest (Y/N) 33. Moralistic (Y/N) 34. Optimistic (Y/N) 35. Patriotic (Y/N) 36. Persuasive (Y/N) 37. Pompous (Y/N) 38. Prejudicial (Y/N) 39. Protective (Y/N) 40. Reflective (Y/N) 41. Religious (Y/N) 42. Sensitive (Y/N) 43. Sentimental (Y/N) 44. Shy (Y/N) 45. Strong (Y/N) 46. Temperamental (Y/N) 47. Vain (Y/N) 48. Volatile (Y/N) #ENDCARD #CARD CHAPTER IV C. Resources. Refer to the previous sources of information you have acquired. They should provide you with insight into the emotional characteristics of your opponent. Study the adjectives and adverbs used to describe words or deeds. You can often make extensions from actions taken. You could do an extensive credit check, though politically this could be dangerous. It would also be illegal, unless authorized by your opponent. As mentioned previously, you will have to depend heavily on hearsay evidence. Talk to people who know your opponent personally, socially, or professionally. If your opponent is speaking publicly, go and listen. Pay close attention to how he or she is expressing him- or herself. Listen for tone, cadence and modulation. Watch the eyes, they really are the "windows of the soul." Notice the body language. If sitting, are the arms and/or legs crossed? If standing, is your opponent leaning forward slightly, or rigid? Are the hand gestures impulsive, or deliberate? Is eye contact direct, or evasive? Is the over-all composure stern, or relaxed? Is your opponent humorous, or dour? If the opportunity presents itself to observe your opponent in a social setting, you should take advantage of it. As often as possible. Pay close attention to the interaction which takes place between your opponent and the people present. Again, watch the body language. Does your opponent greet others confidently, or with temerity? Does the handshake appear to be firm, or limp? Is your opponent attentive to others? Who is the center of conversations? Observe the personal mannerisms. If possible, engage your opponent in conversation and gage his or her reaction to you. Analyze the choice of descriptive words used. If your opponent is an incumbent, check the voting records and arguments made before the vote. If active in the community, check the type of civic and social activities he or she has done. These would appear on their biography. When it comes to completing the analysis for yourself, be careful. Your own insights may be helpful, but they are bound to be biased. Remember, the objective here is to determine how others perceive you. Truth is what people perceive! At the risk of getting a divorce, ask your spouse to complete the checklist on you. Then give copies to friends and relatives, asking them to be candid in their observations. Assure them the checklist may be sent back in a plain white envelope, with no indication of the source. Compile the results and answer each item based on an opinion of the majority. If it contradicts your own impressions, try to analyze why the difference exists. D. Individual Analysis. Politically we are concerned with the impact these emotional characteristics will have on a person as a candidate or an elected leader. Remember, we all have these emotional characteristics. It is really a matter of degrees. If you were to measure these characteristics on a scale of 1 to 10, with 10 signifying the strongest impact on our decision making process, it might look like this: 1 2 3 4 | 5 6 7 | 8 9 10 Low Impact Medium Impact High Impact (Predictable) (Possible) (Probable) #ENDCARD #CARD CHAPTER IV Notice on this scale the qualifiers in parenthesis. At the lower end the results are predictable. As a rule they will not affect the decision making process adversely. At the higher end, there is a high degree of probability, they will affect the process. Those characteristics which fall in the middle present the most problems strategically. As the impact is unpredictable, they are difficult to attack, or defend. In doing this analysis, assign a numeric value of 1 to 10 to each item. You can base this value on empirical evidence, hearsay, majority opinion, or intuitive feelings. As you go through the items, assign an impact value for what would be considered the positive characteristics, as well as the negative ones. Unlike your analysis of physical and intellectual characteristics, this analysis is not concerned with the perception of the electorate. At least not at this point. Before you can proceed to that stage you must narrow down the list. Only those characteristics which will have a probable impact on your opponent as a candidate or elected official will be considered. Be very critical and objective in this preliminary analysis. The emotional characteristics play the pivotal role in the electorate's perception of a candidate. It is well documented in politics that perception is the reality. E. Analysis Chart C. Emotional Characteristics. Caution must be used in the preparation of this chart. By their very nature some of the words I used to describe certain emotional characteristics are strongly negative. Their use in a focus group, or poll, would bias the responses. Few people would give a positive response to a characteristic like cruel, volatile, or belligerent. Conversely, few would give a negative response to integrity, honest, or caring. If any of these characteristics are in the probable range, try to rephrase them on the analysis chart. Use your thesaurus to find a synonym, or antonym, which will effect the same result. For example, contentious is a weaker term for belligerent and would not evoke a knee jerk negative response. A positive response to the word pacifist would indicate a valid presumption of a negative rating for belligerent. Those emotional characteristics which were in the low range are not without value. Even though not tested, they round out your impression of your opponent. In debates, or other types of campaign activity, this information could be helpful. Those characteristics which fall in the medium range, could be tested if enough characteristics are not in the high range. You probably will not be able to use them in a direct sense. However, they could give you an indication of potential "hot buttons" which might trigger an embarrassing public reaction. In developing this list, I have randomly picked some characteristics for illustrative purposes. You need to go through the previous step to determine relevance in your situation. #ENDCARD #CARD CHAPTER IV Analysis Chart C. Emotional Characteristics White White Black Black Hisp. Hisp. Item: Male Fem. Male Fem. Male Fem. 1. Secure - + 2. Religs. - + 3. Patriot - + 4. Shrewd - + 5. Courage - + 6. Charis. - + 7. Hetero. - + 8. Happy - + 9. Caring - + 10. Introv. - + 11. Gentle - + 12. Strong - + 13. Demons. - + 14. Persuas.- + 15. Indust. - + 16. Moralis.- + #ENDCARD #CARD CHAPTER IV F. Assignment of Values. Assigning values for emotional characteristics differ from the conventions used for physical and intellectual characteristics. The standard demographic patterns do not apply in most cases. Virtually all groupings place a relatively high value on integrity, honesty, compassion, courage, and being heterosexual. Conversely characteristics like cruel, belligerent, miserly, insecure, and volatile, usually evoke negative responses. The purpose of assigning values to emotional characteristics is to determine the relative degrees of importance attached to them by the electorate. Placing an X in the respective blocks will not be of much help. In this case you need to use the actual numeric answers generated by your focus group. The interviewer should prepare a list of characteristics to be tested. Then give a copy of the list to each person in the focus group. Ask them to assign a value of 1 to 10 for each item. One being the least desirable characteristic and ten being the most desirable. After this is done, add the results for each item and divide by the number in each grouping to obtain the average rating. This value is then placed in the respective block for each item. For example, if there are seven white females in the focus group and they assign values for sensitivity as follows: 10, 10, 9, 8, 8, 6, 6, adding the numbers equals 57. Then divide 57 by 7 for an average value of 8.1. Place this value in the block for white females. Complete this procedure for each of the specific characteristics being tested for you and your opponent. G. Analysis of Data. You should now have two sets of data. An emotional profile of you and your opponent and an analysis of how this profile could impact the voters. Study them carefully. Which one appears to have the most positive values over-all? Are their characteristics which are modifiable? Make a list of your opponent's characteristics which are considered by the electorate to be least desirable. Do the same for yours. Then make a third list of your characteristics which are considered most desirable. Do the same for your opponent. Which characteristics for both of you fall into the median range? Now compare these charts with the ones done for physical and intellectual characteristics. See if there are any apparent inconsistencies or variations from a stereotypical norm. Complete this process by summarizing, for you and your opponent, all the data collected. Develop a biographical profile for each of you. List all the positives and negatives. Make a special note of which items are fixed and which are modifiable. Think in terms of offensive and defensive maneuvers. Now analyze the emotional characteristics data from the perspective of predisposition. Try to determine how you and your opponent would react to various types of attacks. What type of campaign activity is best suited for each of you? There are numerous types, as pointed out in THE CAMPAIGN MANUAL. **1** Be sure to analyze the spouses along these lines. FootNotes: **1** Debates, door-to-door campaigning, plant gate, shopping centers, public forums, fund-raising, media events, parades, coffee klatches, press conferences, etc. #ENDCARD #CARD CHAPTER IV Extend this analysis past the election. Try to project how these characteristics would affect you and your opponent's performance as an elected official. What type of an image could be projected based on this analysis? Remember to be objective and critical throughout this process. If you believe you are unable to do this, ask a trusted friend, or advisor, to do it for you. Preferably someone with political campaign experience, or advertising and public relations experience. H. Developing the Strategy. In developing strategy based on all personal characteristics you would normally consider two basic objectives. First, how can you accentuate your positives while down-playing your negatives. Secondly, how can you accentuate your opponent's negatives, while ignoring his or her positives. In addition to these objectives, you add two more when dealing with emotional characteristics. How can you cause your opponent to make a serious tactical error and how can your opponent cause you to make one. Challengers usually have an edge over incumbents in relation to this second set of objectives. I have noticed over the years many incumbents develop a propensity to be arrogant. This seems to become more prevalent the longer they are in office. This characteristic played a major role in a campaign I was familiar with a few years ago. The opponent was a U.S. Representative who had held the office for 26 years. The research indicated a high rating for the characteristic trait of arrogance. However, when measured against the electorate, it did not produce much negative impact value. It almost seemed to be interpreted as a macho value, especially among the men. It was obvious any attempt to exploit this characteristic directly would only backfire. So the campaign decided to use this knowledge to cause the incumbent to make a tactical error. In this case, they deliberately fueled the incumbent's arrogance. They developed two game plans. One plan laid out a strategy which was very similar to the ones previously used by past opponents of the incumbent. Making sure this plan became public, they banked on the incumbent taking the candidate's campaign for granted. The presumption was the incumbent would not do anything different from previous campaigns. The other plan called for a radical departure from previous campaigns. Only six people knew about this plan. Essentially it called for the development of a communications technique which had never before been used in that district. They planned on coordinating this activity with the more traditional methods to develop a blitzkrieg attack. It worked. It was mid-September before the incumbent realized what was being done. It was too late to respond. Throughout the campaign, the candidate controlled the playing field and subsequently, the outcome of the election. George Bush's campaign made skillful use of their evaluation of Mike Dukakis' emotional characteristics in the 1988 presidential race. Their attacks on his patriotism sent him scurrying for the infamous ride in the tank. This gave the political cartoonists a field day. Pressing his emotional hot buttons, they caused him to flip-flop on one position after another. By mid-campaign, many of his own supporters were uncertain about where he really stood on the issues. When developing strategy based on the first set of objectives, consider the use of graphics to accentuate your positives. #ENDCARD #CARD CHAPTER IV Still graphics, such as signs, logos, billboards, brochures, etc., can say more than the words about emotional characteristics. As a rule, they tend to reflect the type of person you are in the mind of the electorate. Bold lettering and colors communicate one impression. Script lettering and pastel colors communicate a different impression. If the still graphic is wordy, or cluttered, it too will communicate that message, as well as what is actually being said by you. Whether or not you should feature your picture on a still graphic depends on what you are trying to communicate. Assuming there are no physical characteristics which would have a negative impact, you can communicate several emotional characteristics with facial and body expressions. Refer back to your analytic data and see which characteristics have the highest positive impact among the electorate. Then include in your brochure pictures of you in settings which visually communicate them. If for example, compassion has a high positive rating, have a picture included showing you listening intently to some senior citizens. Leaning over a hospital bed talking to a patient, or distributing food to the needy in a bread line, will also make the point. If sensitivity is a major impact value, have a picture of you, dressed casually, playing with your children on the living room floor. Another setting would be of you playing ball or engaging in some sporting activity with children. Talking with a farmer in a corn field, or a disabled person sitting in a wheelchair is also very effective. If patriotism is a strong point, have a picture taken in front of a plane, or tank, talking with some military personnel in uniform. If you are in Washington, D.C., have your picture taken looking at the Vietnam War memorial, **1** the Iwo Jima memorial, or in Arlington cemetery. When doing action graphics, whether commercials or events for free media coverage, use the background and sound to either reinforce the point you are trying to make, or add a secondary message. Assume your campaign has decided to make a biographical commercial to improve your favorability rating with the electorate. By itself, this could communicate several emotional characteristics like loving, caring, happy, affectionate, protective, heterosexual, etc. Secondary characteristics could be added by enveloping this in a unique setting. For example, if religion has a high positive impact rating, the graphic could show the family coming down the steps of a church, while a voice-over does an introduction of each member. In the background would be the strains of an appropriate religious melody recognizable by the primary group you are trying to reach. If you need to make a point about the quality of education, go to a high school and film a teacher standing in front of the class lecturing. While he or she is talking, fade out several of the students, so only empty seats are seen. You do the voice-over talking about the results of a poor education system and what it really means in terms of the drop-out rate. Close with a visual of you sitting on the corner of the teacher's desk, blackboard in the background, saying how if elected you will make a difference. In the background a haunting melody, gives way to musical sounds of hope and resolve. You have now communicated concern, compassion, caring, and strength to your primary message about the quality of education. Did you ever wonder why so many political commercials pan the audience while a candidate is speaking? Basically they are trying to attach a charismatic characteristic to the candidate. They do this by focusing on the eyes and facial expressions of the audience as they listen in rapt attention. FootNotes: **1** Chuck Robb, running for the U.S. Senate in Virginia in 1988, did an excellent commercial involving his daughter, and several veterans in front of the Vietnam memorial. Referring to his combat record, he not only communicated his patriotism, but intense compassion for the parents of draft age children and other veterans. #ENDCARD #CARD CHAPTER IV Virtually every graphic, whether still or motion, can be enhanced, and its value maximized, by these means. The costs increase slightly but the strategic benefits increase greatly. The same is usually true when emphasizing your opponent's negative emotional characteristics. Rarely will your opponent oblige you by posing for a negative photo or commercial but the use of graphics can help make the point. The little girl and the daisy in the bomb commercial used by Lyndon Johnson's campaign against Barry Goldwater has become a classic in how to accomplish this objective. In one 30 second spot, they convinced millions of the electorate that Barry Goldwater was volatile, belligerent, cruel, and demagogic. They never once showed a picture of Barry Goldwater. Another classic example was the Tip O'Neill look alike commercial produced by the National Republican Congressional Committee. For those of you who do not recall the commercial, the Republicans wanted to convey what they perceived as the pompous, arrogant, calculating, and insensitive characteristics of the then Speaker of the House, Tip O'Neill. Through him, they wanted to extend to the electorate these characteristics to all the Democratic members of the Congress. There was an oil embargo against the United States by the OPEC nations and austerity measures were being imposed on the American people. To make their point, they used a portly actor who looked remarkably similar to Rep. O'Neill. They filmed him with a cigar in his mouth, driving a large gas-guzzling auto while a voice-over poked fun at the average American waiting in gas lines. They made their point. Republican congressional candidates enjoyed one of their most successful years. In more modern times, a commercial used by the Bush campaign was very effective in communicating a perceived weakness of Michael Dukakis. Wanting to characterize him as being irresponsible, insensitive, and uncaring, they seized on a furlough policy in Massachusetts which enabled persons convicted of 1st degree murder who weren't eligible for parole, to have weekend passes from prison. While a voice-over deplored the ramifications of this policy by Gov. Dukakis, the visual showed prisoners going through a turnstile at the entrance of a prison, one right after the other, going in and coming out. A graphic overlay pointed out that 286 never returned. The spot was very effective. Most campaigns however, cannot afford the luxury of even a limited number of TV commercials. Many of them have to rely on free media coverage to make their points, or still graphics. How much free media coverage is available depends on the level of office being sought and the locale. As a rule, the larger the community, the higher the campaign covered by the press. Unless a candidate for a lower level race does something newsworthy on its own merits, the local media will virtually ignore the campaign. Unfortunately, the only activity the media usually considers newsworthy are those involving criminal or tragic circumstances. I do remember one rather innovative campaign which drew attention not normally given a campaign of its size. A candidate running for state representative in order to make a point about high taxes, dressed up in a Minuteman costume and dropped tea bags from a bridge into a river. The stunt paid off. The candidate received a considerable amount of free media coverage and subsequently won the election. Most candidates though, have to content themselves with a limited amount of still graphics they can purchase. Both to highlight their positive characteristics and their opponent's negatives. #ENDCARD #CARD CHAPTER IV One of the most cost-effective ways to do this is by using a comparative analysis sheet, or tabloid, showing where you and your opponent stand on ten or twelve illustrative issues. You further focus the comparison by adding a third column asking the voter to list their preference on each issue. This method not only focuses attention on the intellectual characteristics but, by inference, can highlight several emotional characteristics as well. Other than this piece, your campaign might be limited to a brochure and a tabloid. If this is the case focus on your most positive characteristics. Be sure to follow the previously stated advice regarding use of color, typeface, and background. Remember, emotions are characteristics which we feel. They are not necessarily what we are, but in politics, perception is usually the reality. How the electorate perceives a candidate is, as far as they are concerned, how he or she is in reality. A winning strategy is not necessarily predicated on what you want to project or accomplish. It is based on what will win the election. When a conflict arises, unless there is a valid moral reason not to, go with the percentages. #ENDCARD #CARD CHAPTER V NAME ID RATING; A. Definition. Name identification rating is an indication of how many people recognize a candidate's name. It is usually expressed in terms of a percentile, 30% name ID rating, 50% name ID rating, etc. The name ID rating is further defined as being "soft" or "hard." A soft name ID rating is one which has been established after a prompt has been given by an interviewer. A hard name ID rating is one established without any prompting. For example, if you asked 100 people who the Republican candidate for president was during the 1988 campaign and 80 answered George Bush, then George Bush's hard name ID rating would be 80%. If you asked who the Democratic candidate was and 75 answered Mike Dukakis, then his hard name ID rating would be 75%. Conversely, assume you asked 100 people who the Republican candidate was, George Bush or Mike Dukakis, and 90 answered George Bush. You have prompted a response by mentioning his name and his name ID rating of 90% would be considered soft. Some pollsters use another variation of this prompt. They tell the interviewee they are going to mention several names to them. They then ask them to tell them if the name is familiar to them. Usually they will go through six to eight names. Included among them will be two dummy names, that is, names which are fictitious. The results are considered soft ID name ratings. It is interesting to note, the dummy names will usually receive between 15 and 20% name ID ratings. In fact, virtually any name will realize those percentages. B. Relevance. A candidate's name ID rating is critically important in the development of campaign strategy. One of the few axioms in politics is the candidate with the highest name ID rating will inevitably win, all other factors being relatively equal. Parity is normally achieved very quickly between the major party presidential candidates. This is a result of the extensive media coverage they both receive. However, as you go down the ticket, the media exposure decreases proportionately. Achieving parity, or greater, then becomes a direct function of campaign strategy. You must make it happen. How high your name ID rating must be is conditioned by two factors. First, your opponent's name ID rating, and second, the level of race in which you are running. As a rule of thumb, I use the following guide as a minimum objective: U.S. Senate 90% soft name ID rating U.S. Representative 80% soft name ID rating Governor 90% soft name ID rating Other statewide office 80% soft name ID rating State Senator 60% soft name ID rating State Representative 50% soft name ID rating County Supervisor 70% soft name ID rating Mayor 80% soft name ID rating City Council 70% soft name ID rating Other city office 50% soft name ID rating School Board 40% soft name ID rating Sheriff 50% soft name ID rating Judge 40% soft name ID rating #ENDCARD #CARD CHAPTER V To understand more fully the relevance of this factor, you need to analyze the voting habits of the electorate. **1** At the Presidential, U.S. Senatorial, U.S. Representative, and gubernatorial levels, most voters have a sense of who they are voting for beyond the party label. It is not unusual to see them split their ticket as a result. As you will see in the next chapter, favorability ratings combine with the name ID rating to make this determination. When you go below these levels, most voters will tend to cast their votes along party lines unless they have a sense of familiarity with a particular name. In this case they might deviate from their norm. This sense of familiarity can be a result of a candidate having a famous surname like Kennedy, Roosevelt, Reagan, etc. It could also be a result of a common name like Smith, Jones, Brown, etc. Nationality can play a strong role as well. There may be an affinity for Italian, Irish, Polish, Hispanic, etc. surnames. Gender is also becoming a stronger factor in this regard. Sometimes it could just be a case of having known someone with that particular surname. All of these situations are relatively passive. That is, there is little you can do to change the situation. However, you can plan activity which will make your name become more familiar to the electorate. C. Significance. It is not unusual for the name ID rating factor to transcend most of the other factors among the electorate. This can sometimes explain the election, or re-election, of a person from one party in an area where the other party dominates all other races. This factor is so significant, local and state party chairpersons will often try to recruit candidates for races simply because they have a high name ID rating. Usually resulting from non-political activities such as sports, acting, news broadcasting, etc. Its significance can also be measured by the amount a candidate must spend just to improve it. I recall one race involving a challenger for a U.S. Representative's seat. The challenger started a year before the election with a statistically insignificant name ID rating of 22%. The incumbent had a hard name ID rating of 90%. Two weeks before the election, the challenger's hard name ID rating was 92%. To accomplish this, the campaign had spent 40%, or $168,000., of its $420,000. budget strictly for the purpose of building name ID. The candidate went on to win by the largest margin of any challenger that year. High name ID gives you credibility in the mind of the electorate. Until you have it, they simply will not be receptive to your messages. D. Resources. You can determine your name ID rating, and your opponent's, by having a poll taken. Focus groups do not work well for this purpose. If you cannot afford to have a poll taken, see if previous poll data exists and is available to you. Check the same sources you did previously for the other factors. If unsuccessful, conduct your own poll. The easiest way to do this is to develop a basic questionnaire. Include a list of five to seven names. One should be your name. One the name of your opponent. Two should be the names of elected officials within your district. Especially those who might be possible endorsers of your candidacy. One should be the name of a person whom you know to be relatively popular. Make up one or two others and include them on your list. To make your poll more authentic when calling add an open ended issue question. For example, "What do you think are the two most serious problems facing our community?" You could also include a couple of close-ended questions like, "Are you satisfied, or dissatisfied, with the efforts of our police to control crime in our community?", or "Would you support an increase in taxes to build a new school in our area?" FootNotes: **1** Remember we are defining the electorate as all those who can vote, excluding strictly partisan voters. #ENDCARD #CARD CHAPTER V Then bring in your list of names and say, "I'm going to read several names to you now. Please tell me if you have heard of them as I read each one." Since the poll is being done before the campaign has actually begun, a ballot question between you and your opponent would not be too meaningful. Also since you are really trying to determine name ID, it would not be necessary to ask a number of demographic questions. Later, I will discuss how to do more extensive polling. At this point you should expect a relatively high degree of validity by simply calling every 10th name in the phone book. Since the voice of the respondent will usually indicate gender, you can balance your respondents on that characteristic. Most districts breakout 52% female and 48% male. The number of interviews you need to make depends on the population of your district. Generally, the size of your sample should be equal to one-tenth of one percent of the district (.1%) **1** . When finished, compile the results and divide each number by the total number of completed interviews. The resulting percentage would provide an indication of each person's name ID rating. For example, if your district has a population of 250,000 you would interview 250 people. If 100 say they have heard of your opponent, divide 100 by 250. Your opponent's soft name ID rating would be 40%. Some tips in doing the poll. First ask several female volunteers to do the telephone interviewing. An unknown female voice is less threatening than a male's voice over the phone. The best time for calling is between 7:00 and 9:00 P.M., Monday through Friday, and 10:00 A.M. to 5:00 P.M. on Saturday. The interviewer should always be pleasant and speak slowly. Do not waste time. If resistance is encountered, go on to the next person. E. Sample Questionnaire. Name ID. Person called: Phone: "Good evening, this is Mary Smith. We are conducting a short poll this evening and wonder if you would mind taking a few moments to help us by answering a few questions. It shouldn't take more than five minutes. Thank you." "First. What do you think are the two most serious problems facing our community today?" (Response) "Okay, thank you." "Next, would you say you are satisfied, or dissatisfied, with the efforts of our police to control crime in our community?" (Circle one) SATISFIED DISSATISFIED "Fine, thank you." "Now, do you favor, or oppose, an increase in taxes to build a new school in our area?" (Circle one) FAVOR OPPOSE "Thank you." "Now, one last question and we'll be done. I'm going to read several names to you. Please tell me if you have heard, or not heard, this person's name before. OK." (Prompt, if necessary) (Circle one) "Michael Jackson" "Have you heard before." YES NO "Tom Jones" "Have you heard before." YES NO "Margaret Thatcher" "Have you heard before." YES NO "Tom Sellick" "Have you heard before." YES NO "Sal Guzzetta" "Have you heard before." YES NO "Helen Hayes" "Have you heard before." YES NO "Okay, that's it. Thank you very much for your assistance. I really appreciated your help. Goodnight." FootNotes: **1** This percentile decreases in districts with more than 500,000 residents, and increases slightly for districts with less than 50,000. #ENDCARD #CARD CHAPTER V (Circle one) MALE FEMALE Name of Interviewer: F. Analysis of Data. After compiling the results by gender and combined totals you should have an objective picture of your respective name ID ratings. You will also have an indication of where the electorate stands on some issues. In a later chapter, I will discuss the relevance of this information. Now we will focus on the name ID factor. Look first at the results for your fictitious names. How do the other ratings match up with them? Are they higher or lower? Do the same with the popular name. Next study the differentials between you and your opponent. Go to the next level and see if the differentials are consistent between men and women. This could have a bearing on the design of your graphics. What differentials exist between you, your opponent, and the other elected officials? Would an endorsement, or their signature on a fund-raising letter be helpful to you? How do the percentages compare to the previously stated objectives for the level of office being sought? Compare them for you and your opponent. If there is a significant negative difference this would be an indication of real vulnerability. G. Developing the Strategy. If your name ID is higher than your opponent's and as high as the objective for the office being sought, you are in good shape. Your strategy regarding this factor would be to simply sustain the rating. Usually this can be accomplished in the normal course of your other campaign activity. You would not spend significant amounts of your resources for this specific purpose. Doing so would be non-productive, and to the extent it takes funds away from other objectives, it would be counter-productive. If these two conditions are not the case, then you must develop a strategy to realize your objectives. While it is true any physical campaign activity builds name ID, some activities work more effectively than others. If you had virtually unlimited resources, you could saturate the media with commercials featuring your name and the office being sought. In most campaigns this would be unrealistic. The amount of saturation required would be extremely expensive. Most of us have a built-in, or psychological, resistance to the introduction of new names or products. By the time we are adults, our memories are filled with so many items we have to remember, we become very picky about what we will retain. In order to overcome this resistance, manufacturers will spend millions of dollars in advertising to introduce a new product line. Today the Ford Taurus is as well recognized as the Honda Civic. When it was first introduced the media campaign was massive, by any definition, and sustained for over two years. During any given evening of prime time television they ran six 30 second spots, on all three major networks. Within each spot, the name Taurus was seen or heard at least 4 times. All of this to penetrate our consciousness with the name of a new car. Yet cars, by comparison to politicians, are easy for us to accept. In fact almost any product, or idea, is easier for the public to accept then a politician. When it comes to politicians, that built-in resistance becomes a steel door. In order to penetrate it, your strategy must include constant saturation over a relatively long period of time. #ENDCARD #CARD CHAPTER V In advertising there is a measurement device which is used to indicate what percentile of the people will see a particular advertisement in any given place, at any given time. The advertising outlets are able to determine this by means of their own polling which they pay independent firms to do for them. They subsequently base their advertising rates on this data. This device is referred to as a G.R.P. rating. G.R.P. stands for Gross Rating Points. It is important for you to understand the significance of this system. Essentially the G.R.P. rating tells the advertisers how many people on a given day will see, or hear, a particular advertisement. In the case of radio and TV, they can also tell the demographic make-up of the audience. This broader system is referred to as the Arbitron ratings. In the case of the G.R.P. ratings, the number given indicates what percentage of the people will see, or hear, that advertisement under certain specified conditions. For example, you could buy enough TV time to virtually guarantee 50% of the people who turn on a TV on any given day will see your commercial. This would be referred to as a 50% G.R.P. rating. Or you could virtually guarantee 30% of the people who go beyond their property on any given day will see a billboard advertisement. This would be a 30% G.R.P. rating. Since high saturation, over a long period of time is the objective with regard to this characteristic, most candidates will find the cost of achieving the highest G.R.P. rating to be the determining factor. For this reason, signs become the weapon of choice for most campaigns to realize this objective. A combination of billboards and bus signs, having a 50% G.R.P. rating over a seven, or eight month period, would make anyone's name as well known as Ronald Reagan's. To realize the same results using TV and radio would cost 10 to 20 times the amount you would have to spend. In any case, to check progress you would conduct your poll every 30 to 45 days and compare name ID ratings. You should begin to see positive results within 60 days after starting this program. The problem with signs is they are rather limited in their ability to communicate a message. Essentially they can be used for building name ID, but little else. They contribute little toward building favorability rating, or adding substance to your campaign. People have only a brief amount of time to read them, usually 4 seconds or less. If you attempt to communicate anything more than your name and the office being sought, the whole message will be wasted. Recall the previous references to still graphics. The use of lettering and colors are extremely important when designing your signs. Their use can help communicate a secondary message saying something about the type of person you are trying to project. Keep them clean and simple. Your name, party (if a partisan race), and the office being sought. A bar for emphasis, but avoid excessive graphics. **1** Make all of them the same. Bus signs, billboards, yard signs, window signs, pole signs, and 4 x 8 signs should all look alike. Regardless of the level of office being sought, your strategy must include a plan to build up your name ID rating. As you build your name ID, you are establishing your credentials as a viable candidate with the electorate. Until you have done this, they will not be receptive to positive messages about your candidacy. Of even greater significance, they will not find your criticisms of your opponent to be credible. To go on the attack before doing this is usually counter-productive. FootNotes: **1** In the second or third stage of your campaign, you might add your picture to improve your favorability rating. #ENDCARD #CARD CHAPTER V Often candidates are so eager to begin criticizing their opponent, they begin their campaigns on the attack. The strategy backfires when they are labeled as negative candidates. I believe the Dukakis campaign for president in 1988 will become a classic example of this kind of failed strategy. Right from the opening round of the Democratic convention, the campaign attacked George Bush. A month later they added Dan Quayle. They were so eager to tear down George Bush, they failed to build up Mike Dukakis. Whether it was arrogance, or naivete, I am not sure. They seemed to believe that simply by securing the nomination, Mike Dukakis' hard name ID rating was on a par with George Bush's rating. Even without a poll to prove otherwise, they should have realized this would be an impossible situation. No governor of a medium sized state is going to have parity with a person who had been Vice-president for eight years, among a national electorate. Conversely, because George Bush's name ID rating was so high, his campaign was able to go on the attack right after their convention and make it stick. By mid-October, the Dukakis campaign appeared to realize their error, withdrew all of their negative commercials, and began a series of positive ones about Mike Dukakis. Signs and bumper stickers began to appear throughout the country. It was too late. They had put the cart before the horse, and their campaign went nowhere. #ENDCARD #CARD CHAPTER VI FAVORABILITY RATING; A. Definition. The favorability rating is a device for measuring the positive or negative impressions the electorate has in association with a candidate's name. It is normally stated in terms of a percentage of the whole electorate, that is, a candidate has a 52% favorability rating, or a 60% favorability rating, etc. This means 52%, or 60%, of the electorate has a favorable impression of the candidate. It is sometimes referred to as the job approval rating, but this is restricting. The measurement goes beyond this critique. When the favorability rating drops below 50%, it is referred to as a negative rating. If over 50%, it is referred to as a positive rating. Essentially the favorability rating goes together with the name ID rating. It cannot be measured by itself. The favorability rating is normally determined by polling. However, in the latter stages of the campaign focus groups can be used effectively. Pollsters will use questions like, "Thinking about Senator Bob Smith, do you approve, or disapprove of the way he is doing his job in the U.S. Senate," or, "Thinking about Mary Jones, the Republican candidate for U.S. Congress which word would most accurately reflect your impression of her? Would you describe your feelings as favorable, or unfavorable?" B. Relevance. Depending on the level of the campaign, the favorability rating can be of critical importance in the development of campaign strategy. At the lower levels, a relatively high name ID rating is usually sufficient to win, all other factors being relatively equal. The higher you go, the more critical it becomes in the campaign. This is especially true from the perspective of a challenger. Another of the few axioms in politics is the electorate does not vote out of office a candidate who has a favorability rating over 50% **1** . Challengers, therefore, usually have to develop a strategy which will generate a favorability rating for themselves in excess of 50%, while causing the opponent's rating to drop below 50%. Usually incumbents do not have this problem. Though the electorate gives low favorability ratings to politicians as a whole, they tend to exclude their own legislators. It is difficult to be specific about the time this factor becomes relevant in a campaign. A city clerk's race in a medium sized metropolitan area during a presidential campaign year, would not, in all probability, receive much attention. A city clerk's race in a small town in Iowa, during an off-year could be a high visibility race which then makes the favorability rating critical. The same might be true of state legislative races, city council races, etc. In most cases you should consider it highly relevant in federal races, statewide races, and races in districts with a population in excess of 50,000. FootNotes: **1** One of the few exceptions I am aware of occurred several years ago in the celebrated race between Sen. Ken Keating of New York and Robert Kennedy. Both men had favorability ratings well over 50%. It just came down to one having to be the winner. #ENDCARD #CARD CHAPTER VI C. Significance. In tandem with the name ID rating, it is not unusual for the favorability rating to overcome all other factors in the campaign. A classic example was the 1980 presidential race between Ronald Reagan and Jimmy Carter. President Carter had all the advantages of incumbency. Virtually all of the other factors were in his favor except the favorability rating. As a result of his handling of the Iran hostage crisis and the oil embargo by the OPEC nations, his favorability rating dropped below 40%. The Reagan campaign, by constantly reinforcing this negative feeling in the mind of the electorate, kept the Carter campaign on the defensive. By linking the high inflation, interest, and unemployment rates caused by the oil embargo to President Carter's policies, they actually caused the favorability rating to drop even lower during the course of the campaign. Yet Reagan's favorability rating never exceeded 50% during the course of the campaign. The Reagan campaign strategy worked so effectively, it became known as the ABC campaign, anyone but Carter. Contrary to the popular wisdom of the time, there was no Reagan mandate, nor were there any significant coattails. In fact a rare phenomenon in American national politics occurred. In numerous congressional and senatorial races throughout the country, Republican candidates received a higher percentage of the vote than Reagan. It was an unusual case of reverse coattails. The Bush/Dukakis presidential campaign of 1988 followed a more traditional strategy. At least it did from the perspective of the Bush campaign. The Bush campaign built George Bush's favorability rating from around 40% prior to the Republican convention to 56% by mid-October. At the same time, they helped push Gov. Dukakis' favorability rating of 54% following the Democratic convention, to below 40% by mid-October. In a strange way, they were helped by the Dukakis campaign and the Democratic party. At the July, 1988 Democratic convention in Atlanta, GA, the Democrats, instead of using the occasion to project a positive image of their party, its platform and Gov. Dukakis, seemed to take almost a perverse delight in deriding George Bush. The scorn displayed took on a decidedly personal tone. The problem was they had not yet solidified their own base, nor established a solid positive favorability rating for Dukakis. Consequently the attacks seemed arrogant. This set the stage for what followed. The Dukakis campaign following up on this theme, continued to belittle George Bush in a very personal manner. By the time the Republican convention took place in New Orleans, LA the following month, they had failed to establish an identification for Gov. Dukakis. The electorate knew little about him as a person. They knew even less about where he stood on the issues. Most significant, they had not established positive feelings for him nor his vision for the future of America. The Bush campaign, following a strong presentation at the Republican convention, embarked on a dual strategy of building George Bush's favorability rating while attacking Mike Dukakis. Since the Dukakis campaign was still pursuing a unilateral strategy of trying to undermine Bush's favorability rating, the Bush campaign was able to define Mike Dukakis according to its terms. The electorate, not having anything to weigh against this definition, accepted it. In an ironic twist to the Dukakis campaign strategy, around October 15th, they changed to a series of very positive commercials defining Mike Dukakis. These were designed to improve his favorability rating. A series they should have run in July and August. The irony was they should have done just the opposite. Since it was far too late to undo the damage done to Mike Dukakis' favorability rating, or significantly improve it, they should have adopted the strategy of the 1980 Reagan campaign. That strategy would have called for forcing George Bush's favorability rating below Dukakis'. Not by attacking him personally, but by focusing on 2 or 3 issues which the electorate could have related to, such as housing, education and government waste. There is an old joke about a mule and a carrot. It seems this farmer was trying to get a mule off his haunches and moving without having any success. He finally tried waving a carrot a few feet in front of the mule but the mule just ignored it. A stranger who happened upon the scene told the farmer he knew how to get the mule moving. He told the farmer to stand several feet in front of the mule holding out the carrot. Then before the farmer could react, he picked up a 2 X 4 and whacked the mule right across the forehead. The mule quickly got up and began to follow the farmer. When the farmer objected to the stranger's rough handling of his mule, the stranger explained that while the carrot was a good idea, you first had to get the mule's attention. #ENDCARD #CARD CHAPTER VI: If nothing else, negative campaigns do get our attention. D. Resources. You can determine your favorability rating, and your opponent's, by having a poll taken. As with the previously discussed factors, check to see if a recent poll exists which might be available to you. If you cannot afford a professional poll, conduct your own following the suggested outline in the previous chapter. If your opponent is an incumbent, you can test favorability in the first poll taken. If you are not the incumbent and your name ID rating is expected to be very low, wait until your campaign has been in progress for at least two months before testing your favorability rating. If your campaign is a relatively low level race, i.e. 100,000 population or less, basing your poll on the demographic characteristics of race and gender should be valid enough for this purpose. However, if your race involves a larger geo-political district you should find out more specific information. You will need this detail in order to design a more highly targeted media campaign. This means you will need to develop more demographic information about the respondents. In order to do this, you first need to know the demographic makeup of your district. Recall the sources previously mentioned for this information. A recent poll taken by your party or another candidate, the local chamber of commerce, or U.S. census data which might be available at your local library, university, or U.S. Representative's office. In addition this data is available from commercial sources. Ashton-Tate, the software company, has a micro-computer program called Map-Master. This program contains most of the statistical demographic data you would need on a county by county basis. It can be purchased for the whole U.S. or by regions. It is available through Triton Products Company, P. O. Box 8123, San Francisco, CA 94128. Once you have this data, you can then build your own demographic profile for your district. Base your profile on five to seven demographic characteristics which you believe would be most significant for your district and race. At the core be sure to include income levels, educational levels, race, marital status, and gender. If your race is partisan, include party. Since gender is the basic building demographic characteristic it helps to divide the data into two sets, one for male, the other for female. The sets would look like this: Set 1 Set 2 1. Female 1. Male 2. Income Levels 2. Income Levels A. Under 15M A. Under 15M B. 15 - 25M B. 15 - 25M C. 26 - 50M C. 26 - 50M D. Over 50M D. Over 50M 3. Educational Levels 3. Educational Levels A. Less than H.S. A. Less than H.S. B. H.S. Graduate B. H.S. Graduate C. Some College C. Some College D. College Graduate D. College Graduate 4. Marital Status 4. Marital Status A. Married A. Married B. Single B. Single C. Divorced C. Divorced D. Widowed D. Widowed 5. Race 5. Race A. Caucasian A. Caucasian B. Black B. Black C. Hispanic C. Hispanic D. Asian D. Asian E. Native American E. Native American 6.* Nationality 6.* Nationality A. Italian A. Italian B. Irish B. Irish C. German C. German D. Polish D. Polish E. Slavic E. Slavic F. Mexican F. Mexican G. Puerto Rican G. Puerto Rican H. English H. English 7.* Religion 7.* Religion A. Protestant A. Protestant B. Catholic B. Catholic C. Jewish C. Jewish D. Moslem D. Moslem 8.* Voter Type 8.* Voter Type A. Republican A. Republican B. Democrat B. Democrat C. Independent C. Independent * Optional. For illustrative purposes only. #ENDCARD #CARD CHAPTER VI: If you used all of these demographic characteristics you would have 34 sets of sub-data times 2 equaling 68 tabulations for each question on your poll. On a poll these demographic headings are usually listed across the top of the page. This is usually referred to as the banner. They establish the columns going down the page. The questions and the potential responses are listed in the far left column of the page. The responses shown numerically and as a percentile of the whole sample are then posted in the box, called a cell, which exists where the answer meets the appropriate demographic. The tables thus generated are referred to as cross tabulations, or cross tabs for short. Obviously, doing these cross tabs involves a significant amount of work. Polling firms use main frame computers with special software to do these calculations and print the results. If you are going to do your own, you have three options. You can do them manually. You can ask the computer science department of your local college if they will help you, assuming they are allowed to help political candidates. Or you can obtain a software program for your personal computer which has been designed to do cross tabulations. Presently I am aware of only one company which markets a program of this type which is relatively easy to use. The program is called CAMPAIGN-ACROSS and it is distributed by Strawberry Software, Inc., 42 Pleasant St., Watertown, MA 02172, (617) 923-8800. They do provide a free demo disk. The program currently sells for around $1,000.00, but if you plan on doing a number of detailed polls it would be worth it for you to make the investment. As you will see in later chapters, these polls can become very extensive. For example, a benchmark, or base, poll will usually have 25 to 30 questions plus the demographic qualifiers. Even if you use only three or four main demographic groupings plus their sub-groups, the number of calculations could run into the thousands. Keep in mind when doing this type of poll involving the demographic qualifiers, not only does the length of time for each interview increase significantly, the number of interviews required also increases. In the previous chapter we were measuring name ID and the only demographic qualifier was gender. If this poll is to have a high degree of validity then it must correspond to the demographic makeup of the district. Since the qualifying demographic questions are not asked until the end of the survey **1** you will not know whether or not that particular respondent fits your sample requirements. Most pollsters need to conduct two to three times the number of interviews required for the sample, discarding those who are superfluous. You can shortcut this somewhat by making some predeterminations using the first three digits of the telephone number as a guide. The digits are like zip codes in that they identify a specific geographic area. If you know certain sections of your district have a preponderance of people fitting one of your demographic characteristics like race, or income levels, you would randomly select a number of telephone numbers from that area equal to your criteria requirements. For example, if your demographic profile requires that 18% of your respondents have income levels over $50,000 and the size of your sample is 200, you would need 36 respondents who make more than $50,000 per year. People in that income level tend to live in the same area. Find out which phone number prefix covers the area and then select every 10th name until you have 36 numbers to call. This information is usually listed in the front of your phone book. Actually since a number of calls will be unanswered and only 60% of those who do answer will usually take the time to respond, you will need to select about 90 numbers to call for this grouping. FootNotes: **1** People will rarely answer these questions before the polling questions are completed. The exception being whether or not they are registered to vote. #ENDCARD #CARD CHAPTER VI: As you can see, even with this predetermination exercise, you will need to select about 3 persons to call for every planned interview. So if you need to do 200 interviews for your sample you should select around 600 persons to call. Incidentally, the validity of a professional poll and the reputation of a pollster are built on several criteria, not the least of which is the degree of attention given to this type of detail. This is why political action committees (PACs), party committees, and major contributors will rarely give funds to a candidate based on in-house poll results, or on polls done by unknown pollsters. E. Sample Questionnaire with Demographics. Person called: Phone: Date called: (Circle One) Male Female "Good evening, this is Mary Smith. We are conducting a brief poll of registered voters this evening. Are you registered to vote?" (If YES - Continue) (If NO - say thank you and goodnight). "That's great. I wonder if you would mind taking a few moments to help us by answering a few questions. It shouldn't take more than 10 minutes. Thank you." (Q1) "First. Of the following five issues, which one do you think needs the greatest attention from the city government at the present time? (Randomize) (Record Answer) A. Reducing crime. B. Holding down taxes and spending. C. Reducing unemployment. D. Improving public transportation. E. Improving trash collection. F. None of the above. (Q2) Next, which one would you choose second? (Randomize) (Record Answer) A. Reducing crime. B. Holding down taxes and spending. C. Reducing unemployment. D. Improving public transportation. E. Improving trash collection. F. No second mention. (Q3) OK, that's fine. Now for our third question. Here are the names of some people active in local politics. For each one, please tell me if you are aware or not aware of him or her. (If aware, ask:) Is your general impression of him/her favorable or unfavorable? (Rotate Names) (Record Answer) A. Bob Michaels (1) Aware, favorable (2) Aware, unfavorable (3) Not aware B. Mary Kowalski (1) Aware, favorable (2) Aware, unfavorable (3) Not aware C. George Adams (1) Aware, favorable (2) Aware, unfavorable (3) Not aware #ENDCARD #CARD CHAPTER VI: (Q4) OK, thank you. Next. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Bob Michaels is handling his job as mayor? (Record Answer) A. Approve B. Disapprove C. No opinion (Q5) With regard to this fall's election for mayor, if the election were being held today, would you be voting for: (Rotate Names) (Record Answer) A. Bob Michaels B. Mary Kowalski C. George Adams OK, thank you. Now I would like to ask a few questions for statistical purposes. (Q6) What is your approximate age? (Range) (Record Answer) A. 18 - 35 B. 36 - 50 C. 51 - 65 D. 66 over (Q7) Thank you. What is the last grade of school you completed? (Range) (Record Answer) A. 11th grade or less B. H.S. graduate (12th grade) C. Some college D. College graduate E. Post-graduate work (Q8) Thank you. What is your present marital status? (Options) (Record Answer) A. Married B. Single C. Divorced D. Separated E. Widow/Widower (Q9) OK. Which of the following income groups includes your total family income last year before taxes? (Range) (Record answer) A. Under $15,000 B. $15,000 - $25,000 C. $25,000 - $40,000 D. $40,000 - $50,000 E. Over $50,000 (Q10)Thank you. One final question and we'll be done. Is your racial or ethnic heritage white, black, hispanic, or what? (Options) (Record Answer) A. White B. Black C. Hispanic D. Asian E. American Indian F. Other Thank you very much for your cooperation. You've been very patient and I really appreciated your help. Goodnight." F. Analysis of Data. If you are not using a program like CAMPAIGN A-CROSS to do your computations, you should develop a work-sheet to facilitate this process for you. You will need one for each demographic heading. Following are two examples of what they might look like. List the actual numbers, the percentile of the total for each response, and the percentile of the whole sample for each total figure. #ENDCARD #CARD CHAPTER VI: TABULATION WORK-SHEET #1 TOTAL SAMPLE: No.| % RESPONSE TOTALS MALE FEMALE (Q1,A) ___|___ ___|___ ___|___ (Q1,B) ___|___ ___|___ ___|___ (Q1,C) ___|___ ___|___ ___|___ (Q1,D) ___|___ ___|___ ___|___ (Q1,E) ___|___ ___|___ ___|___ (Q1,F) ___|___ ___|___ ___|___ (Q2,A) ___|___ ___|___ ___|___ (Q2,B) ___|___ ___|___ ___|___ (Q2,C) ___|___ ___|___ ___|___ (Q2,D) ___|___ ___|___ ___|___ (Q2,E) ___|___ ___|___ ___|___ (Q2,F) ___|___ ___|___ ___|___ (Q3,A1) ___|___ ___|___ ___|___ (Q3,A2) ___|___ ___|___ ___|___ (Q3,A3) ___|___ ___|___ ___|___ (Q3,B1) ___|___ ___|___ ___|___ (Q3,B2) ___|___ ___|___ ___|___ (Q3,B3) ___|___ ___|___ ___|___ (Q4,A) ___|___ ___|___ ___|___ (Q4,B) ___|___ ___|___ ___|___ (Q5,A) ___|___ ___|___ ___|___ (Q5,B) ___|___ ___|___ ___|___ (Q5,C) ___|___ ___|___ ___|___ #ENDCARD #CARD CHAPTER VI: TABULATION WORK-SHEET #2 TOTAL SAMPLE: No.| % RESPONSE TOTALS WM WF BM BF HM HF (Q1,A) ___|___ ___|___ ___|___ ___|___ ___|___ ___|___ ___|___ (Q1,B) ___|___ ___|___ ___|___ ___|___ ___|___ ___|___ ___|___ (Q1,C) ___|___ ___|___ ___|___ ___|___ ___|___ ___|___ ___|___ (Q1,D) ___|___ ___|___ ___|___ ___|___ ___|___ ___|___ ___|___ (Q1,E) ___|___ ___|___ ___|___ ___|___ ___|___ ___|___ ___|___ (Q1,F) ___|___ ___|___ ___|___ ___|___ ___|___ ___|___ ___|___ (Q2,A) ___|___ ___|___ ___|___ ___|___ ___|___ ___|___ ___|___ (Q2,B) ___|___ ___|___ ___|___ ___|___ ___|___ ___|___ ___|___ (Q2,C) ___|___ ___|___ ___|___ ___|___ ___|___ ___|___ ___|___ (Q2,D) ___|___ ___|___ ___|___ ___|___ ___|___ ___|___ ___|___ (Q2,E) ___|___ ___|___ ___|___ ___|___ ___|___ ___|___ ___|___ (Q2,F) ___|___ ___|___ ___|___ ___|___ ___|___ ___|___ ___|___ (Q3,A1)___|___ ___|___ ___|___ ___|___ ___|___ ___|___ ___|___ (Q3,A2)___|___ ___|___ ___|___ ___|___ ___|___ ___|___ ___|___ (Q3,A3)___|___ ___|___ ___|___ ___|___ ___|___ ___|___ ___|___ (Q3,B1)___|___ ___|___ ___|___ ___|___ ___|___ ___|___ ___|___ (Q3,B2)___|___ ___|___ ___|___ ___|___ ___|___ ___|___ ___|___ (Q3,B3)___|___ ___|___ ___|___ ___|___ ___|___ ___|___ ___|___ (Q4,A) ___|___ ___|___ ___|___ ___|___ ___|___ ___|___ ___|___ (Q4,B) ___|___ ___|___ ___|___ ___|___ ___|___ ___|___ ___|___ (Q5,A) ___|___ ___|___ ___|___ ___|___ ___|___ ___|___ ___|___ (Q5,B) ___|___ ___|___ ___|___ ___|___ ___|___ ___|___ ___|___ (Q5,C) ___|___ ___|___ ___|___ ___|___ ___|___ ___|___ ___|___ Study the work-sheets carefully. Focus especially on discernable patterns. Are there groups which appear to be stronger for you than for your opponent? If, for example, you have more potential votes among white males over 50, try to determine why. Refer back to your analysis of the personal characteristics. See if you can find the cause for this factor. Analyze your opponent's strengths and weaknesses. Why do they exist? A more detailed poll could probe for the reasons but if time, and the amount of effort required, precludes this, then you will have to make this determination subjectively. Do not take anything for granted for either of you. In order to develop a sound strategy you need to know why a positive or negative impression exists. Correlate the information about you and your opponent with the issue oriented data. See if there is a pattern. Do those people who tend to feel a certain way about a specific issue also feel the same way about you or your opponent? Is there an apparent contradiction in this comparison? Remember this type of analysis provided a critical clue in the development of the Bush campaign strategy against Michael Dukakis in 1988. Following the Democratic convention the polls indicated people who tended to be conservative on the issues favored Mike Dukakis. They actually appeared to think he was more conservative than George Bush. This insight was what prompted the Bush campaign to launch its vigorous campaign to expose Mike Dukakis as a liberal. It changed the course of the campaign. G. Developing the Strategy. This particular survey tested the name ID and favorability ratings simultaneously. If a high percentile of the respondents **1** answered not aware to Q3, your strategy must be the same as outlined in Chapter V. If your favorability rating is below 50%, your strategy must be designed to bring it above that percentile. Conversely, if your opponent is above 50%, your strategy must be designed to bring it below that percentile. FootNotes: **1** Based on the criteria of required name ID for the office being sought. Reference section B on Relevance in Chapter V. #ENDCARD #CARD CHAPTER VI: Where still graphics are well suited to improving name ID rating, they are of minimal value in affecting favorability ratings. To accomplish this objective live graphics are superior. Live graphics encompass the mediums of television, videos, and radio. In television and radio they are usually referred to as free or paid. Radio and television times which you pay for are called commercials. Times which are provided by the station are referred to as free time. Videos are tapes developed for playing on a VCR machine on a home television set. Of all the communication mediums available to political candidates today, none are more effective in communicating feelings. These feelings, or impressions, can be positive or negative. They can improve your favorability rating if done well. If not, they can actually create negative feelings about you. If directed against your opponent, they can create negative feelings about him, or her, if done properly and at the appropriate time. If not, they can boomerang and cause positive feelings for your opponent. Your situation determines the best strategy for your campaign. There is a strong tendency in politics to mimic what others have done in their campaigns. This is usually a serious mistake. Your strategy should be tailor-made to the particulars of your campaign's needs. To try and lower your opponent's favorability rating before raising yours above the 50% index is usually a serious error. A sound strategy involves attacking an opponent from a position of strength. In political campaigns, a position of strength is defined as having a name ID greater than your opponent's, or equal to the objectives previously stated, and a favorability rating greater than your opponent's, or in excess of 50%. I cannot stress this enough. I have seen numerous campaigns fail because they lacked the patience to wait until these objectives were achieved before going on the attack. Sometimes this is caused by getting too late a start in the campaign. More often though, it is the candidate's supporters who, in their eagerness to attack the opponent, force the campaign into making this strategical error. You build a positive favorability rating by accentuating those personal characteristics which your research indicated provoked a positive response from the electorate. You reinforce it with positive statements about those issues which were of the greatest concern to the electorate as determined by your poll. **1** Depending on the level of campaign you are involved in and the locale, your campaign strategy should include using varying degrees of these mediums. In a later chapter, I will discuss what impact the commercial media will have on your strategy based on level and locale. However, even a low budget campaign which is not targeted by the local media outlets for much free coverage, can make effective use of videos. Today over 60% of all households have a VCR. For a few thousand dollars you could produce and distribute 1,000 videos throughout your district. The videos can be easily self-produced with the help of some of your associates. First, develop your script. Start with an opening scene of you in a comfortable setting, introducing yourself and what the video they are about to see is all about. Tell the viewer a little about yourself, your education, your profession, your service to the community. As you begin to talk about your family, pan to scenes of your spouse and children. Preferably this should be in an outdoor setting, interacting with you. Make your introductions conversational, as though you were talking with a new neighbor. As you begin to talk about the issues, pan to scenes of you in a setting relating to the subject matter. For example, if schools are the issue, you could be walking down the corridor of a local school, or in the playground area. If the issue is crime, in front of the local jail, or if neighborhood blight, you could be walking down a dirty street. Make the backdrop fit the issue. FootNotes: **1** As stated previously, you should never focus on more than two or three issues during the campaign. #ENDCARD #CARD CHAPTER VI: Finish the video back in the original setting. Looking directly into the camera, express your concern about these issues and what you will do, if elected, to help resolve them. Ask the viewer for their help and their vote on election day. Close with a shot of your yard sign. The whole video presentation should not last more than 30 minutes. In your close ask the viewer to pass the video on to a neighbor and urge them to view it. There are several ways you can distribute the video. As you are walking your precincts, if you encounter someone who expresses support for you and offers to help your campaign, give them a copy and ask them to circulate it in their neighborhood. If you have specific groups or organizations supporting your candidacy, ask their members to take a copy and circulate them. Also tie them into coffee klatches which you plan on doing. You could also spot mail them around the district with a cover letter asking them to take a few minutes to view it and then pass it on to a neighbor. Send a copy to your local television stations. They just might use clips of it on a slow news day. Begin circulating these videos at least 120 days before the election. All of them should be in circulation no later than 90 days before the election. The is true whether it is a primary or a general election period. If it is a primary period, target the videos to households with a member of your party in it. Then redirect the videos to the undecideds in the general campaign period. If your campaign cannot afford even this live graphic, or there is some other reason precluding its utilization, then you will have to rely on your still graphics. In any case, they should be designed to improve favorability rating as well as building up your name ID rating. As mentioned previously, the colors you choose and the typeface used can help. In your brochure and tabloids use pictures which reinforce the message in the copy. Use quality production throughout: in the graphic design and layout, the paper stock, and the printing. If you can develop a brief theme for the campaign which is relevant to the major issue of your campaign, use it in your graphics. If it is not relevant, then do not use it just for the sake of having one. Given the relative importance of building your favorability rating over 50%, this objective should be your first priority. After this has been accomplished, if it is necessary, then focus on bringing your opponent's favorability rating below 50%. #ENDCARD #CARD CHAPTER VII: PERSONAL HISTORY; A. Definition. Personal history is defined here as the accumulation of a candidate's life experiences, other than those related to professional or civic experiences. More specifically, those experiences which can shape or influence a person's character and values. It includes date and place of birth, early primary and extended family information, primary and secondary education, athletics, military service, personal family information, and religious background. To some extent this information can provide clues to a person's judgement and be a predicator of future behavior. #ENDCARD #CARD CHAPTER VII: B. Checklist. Personal History Candidate Opponent 1. Place of Birth: 2. Date of Birth: 3. Father's Name: 4. Mother's Maiden Name: 5. Father's Occupation: 6. Mother's Occupation: 7. No. of Brothers: 8. No. of Sisters: 9. Ranking in Family: 10. Raised - City, State: 11. Elementary School: 12. Junior High School: 13. High School: 14. College: 15. Childhood Religion: 16. Current Religion: 17. Hobbies: 18. Military/Branch/Rank: 19. Physical Impairments: 20. Wife's Maiden Name: 21. Date Married: 22. Ever Divorced: (Y/N) 23. No. of Marriages: 24. No. of Children: 25. No. of Grandchildren: 26. Social Organizations: 27. Religious Organizations: 29. Nationality/Ancestry: 30. Date Moved to District: 31. Localities Lived In: 32. Fraternities/Sororities: 33. Athletic Activities: 34. Traumatic Experiences: #ENDCARD #CARD CHAPTER VII: C. Resources. Most of this information is available from sources previously listed. Since most of this data is objective, it should be readily available in your opponent's biographical material, yearbooks, newspaper articles, or by direct interviewing. Your research should also include an analysis of the institutions, organizations, activities, localities, etc. involved. For example, what are the rankings of the schools attended? What are their orientations? How would you categorize the religious preference indicated? Some like the Catholics, Mormons, Christian Scientists, Pentecostals, etc. can have a profound impact on an individuals early life, while others like Episcopalians, Presbyterians, Unitarians, etc., usually have less impact. What general category would the service organizations, if any, fall into? Community service, personal gratification, or political. How would you classify the localities live in? Blue collar, white collar, professional, rural, etc. Are the fraternities or sororities academic, or social? What type of physical impairments and/or traumatic experiences are involved? Are they impediments to the strain of campaigning and/or public office? Look beyond the obvious and attempt to add depth to the responses. D. Individual Analysis. Analyzing this data from the perspective of the electorate is a bit more difficult than the characteristics referred to in previous chapters. Since this data is historical, it cannot be changed or altered to accommodate norms or preferences of the electorate. However, it might be useful to test some items with a focus group, or poll, to see if they merit emphasis in your campaign literature or commercials. Especially if there are significant differences between you and your opponent. Given the time constraints of a poll, I normally would not test any of these factors using that device. If something appears especially significant, I might occasionally include it to see if there are any demographical variations. Usually a focus group analysis is adequate for most campaigns below the national level and major statewide races. Build your focus group using the same considerations previously used: gender, race, economic levels, etc. Using the + and - system, have the focus group interviewer ask the members to rate each characteristic if it would have a positive or negative impact on their voting. Ask them to leave it blank, if it is neutral. For example, if a candidate had prior military service would that be a positive or negative influence on your voting for him or her? Continue along this line with all the characteristics listed. E. Analysis Chart D. Personal History. Substitute specific data in items enclosed by parenthesis. Prepare a separate chart, using specific data, for your opponent. #ENDCARD #CARD CHAPTER VII: Item: W.M. W.F. B.M. B.F. H.M. H.F. ** 1 ** 1. (College) - + 2. (Religion) - + 3. Military - + 4. (Impairment) - + 5. (Social Org.) - + 6. (Political Org.) - + 7. (Nationality) - + 8. (Yrs. in Dist.) - + 9. Children - + 10. Divorced - + 11. Athletic - + FootNotes: **1** Legend: WM= White Male; WF= White Female; BM= Black Male; BF= Black Female; HM= Hispanic Male; HF= Hispanic Female. #ENDCARD #CARD CHAPTER VII: F. Assignment of Values. Since we are using a + or - system for this analysis simply add up the number of pluses across each row to determine relative impact. Divide the total number by the number of individuals in the focus group to arrive at an average. For example, 10 individuals in the focus group said it would be a positive factor if a candidate had prior military service. If there are 15 individuals in the focus group, divide 10 by 15 to arrive at an average of 67% (rounded off). Continue these calculations for the total in each item and then do them for each demographic grouping. After calculating the positive responses, do the same for the negatives. The differential between the two figures (the positive percentages and the negative percentages) would indicate the percentage that is relatively neutral about the political influence of each item in their voting process. G. Analysis of Data. There are several analysis which need to be made from this data. First you need to study the objective data listed for both you and your opponent. As you study your data try to analyze it from the perspective of your opponent. What does the data say about you? Is there anything which your opponent can use against you - either directly or indirectly by emphasizing characteristics which he or she has and you don't? For example, your age differential could be a factor in certain areas of the country. How many times you have been divorced, if any, could be a factor. Your nationality could be a factor in some sections of the country. The reputation of your parents could be a factor. Conversely, can these factors be positive for you? Now reverse the process and analyze your opponent's data using the same criteria. Keep in mind, your opponent is probably going through this same exercise. Analyze each item by itself and then in relation to the other items which might interact to produce certain results. For example, are there brothers and sisters? If so, where does your opponent fit in. What relevance might this have in relation to the cultural background he or she was raised in? Depending on what generation American, he or she is, it could be significant. In certain cultures whether you are the first born or the last born can have a decided affect on the way you are raised. Did your opponent, or you, attend private, public, or parochial schools during the formative years? There can be a significant difference in the quality of education and the levels of discipline between these schools which could have a bearing on personality, intellect and character. Next analyze the responses of the focus group to the various items tested. Compare the number of positives each of you have over-all and by line item. Generally, if either of you have a positive percentage of 50% or more for any item, it should be emphasized during the campaign. Conversely, any negative percentage of 50% or more, is a definite weak point which will probably be exploited. See if there are any significant differences between the demographic groups which might indicate a specific strategy for that group. Be critical in your analysis and be objective. Don't make the mistake so many candidates do by only seeing what you want to see. That was one of the mistakes Mike Dukakis made and look what happened to him. #ENDCARD #CARD CHAPTER VII: H. Developing the Strategy. In most situations you would use personal history to build your positive ratings. In the early stages of the campaign, you should develop what is referred to as a bio brochure. This brochure would normally feature a picture of yourself and one of your family, including your parents, brothers and sisters. The family picture should be in an outdoor setting, showing everyone in a relaxed pose. A caption below the photo should identify everyone in it. Your picture should be a head and shoulders shot in a 3/4 pose. Both pictures should be done by a professional photographer. The copy in the brochure should emphasize your personal, business and civic history which your research indicates you need to emphasize. Don't discuss issues directly, that comes later. Rather create an impression of where you stand by featuring highlights from your past. Instead of just listing organizations to which you belong, indicate if you have held an office in them, or how long you have been a member. Give each item a little depth. Write your bio in a narrative style rather than just listing each event. Make it interesting to read, but be brief. Use color and graphics to create a positive feeling about yourself. Blue is an especially popular color. Be sure to feature the office you are running for. Make sure the brochure is printed on 60 pound glossy stock and folded to fit in a #10 envelope. Then saturate your district with it shortly after you announce your candidacy. In your letter, introduce yourself, explain in one or two brief paragraphs the reasons you are running and close with an appeal for their support and for campaign contributions. **1** The letter should be on only one page. Make it a Dear Friend letter on your campaign stationary. Enclose your brochure and a return, wallet-style envelope. **2** Mail this letter to every registered voter in your district who has voted in at least two of the last three elections. If your campaign can't afford this, at least mail it to every registered voter of your party. In most cases, you will get enough back in contributions to pay for the mailer. This bio mailer should be sent out about 45 days after your billboards and/or 4 X 8 signs go up throughout the district. **3** During these early stages, pass out this bio brochure wherever you and your volunteers campaign. Include it in all your press kits, PAC kits, and fund-raising letters. Nowhere in the bio brochure or letter should you refer to your opponent by name. In your letter you can refer by inference to your opponent if it is really necessary, but never by name. Your whole strategy should be to focus on building your name ID and a positive rating. There will be plenty of time later in the campaign to focus on issues and your opponent. First though, you must establish your credibility as a candidate and solidify your base. Whether you are an incumbent or a challenger, do not take this strategy for granted. It is an imperative for all. FootNotes: **1** Sample letters are contained in THE FINANCE MANUAL, 2nd Ed., by S. J. Guzzetta, Political Publishing Company. **2** Samples in THE CAMPAIGN MANUAL and THE FINANCE MANUAL. **3** In a normal campaign you would announce around the 1st of February, put up billboards by the 15th of February, and drop this mailer around the 1st of April. #ENDCARD #CARD CHAPTER VIII: Business History; A. Definition Business history is defined here as the cumulative employment experiences a candidate has had throughout their life. It includes the details of any employment for financial compensation from childhood up to the present time. It also includes the specific duties, or job description, of each job and the reason, or reasons, why employment was terminated. In effect, you build a resume of yourself and your opponent, just as you would if applying for a new position. Which is essentially what you and your opponent are doing. Just as with any other position of employment, your qualifications and experiences are relevant factors in an employer's decision making process. In this case, your employers are the electorate. Not only is this history an indication of your ability to perform the specific duties required for an elected official, it is also another clue to predicting future behavior. #ENDCARD #CARD CHAPTER VIII: B. Checklist. Business History Candidate Opponent 1. Present Employer 2. Approx. Date of Emplymnt. 3. Position or Title 4. Approx. Annual Earnings 5. Type of Work Performed 6. No. of People Supervised 7. Noteworthy accomplishments 8. Past Employer 9. Period of Employment 10. Position or Title 11. Approx. Annual Earnings 12. Type of Work Performed 13. No. of People Supervised 14. Noteworthy Accomplishments 15. Reason for Leaving 16. Next Previous Employer 17. Period of Employment 18. Position or Title 19. Approx. Annual Earnings 20. Type of Work Performed 21. No. of People Supervised 22. Noteworthy Accomplishments 23. Reason for Leaving (Continue as long as necessary). C. Resources. Most of this information should be available from the same sources previously mentioned. This data is also objective and should be available in your opponents biographical material. If not, ask directly, or have someone do it for you. Presuming there is nothing to hide, it is a reasonable request and few would object to responding. Your research should also include an analysis of the companies involved and their primary activity. Is there a pattern to the employment history and the companies worked for? For example, are they service oriented, manufacturing, professional, construction oriented, sales, or financial, etc. What general categories would they fall into? An elected official at almost any level not only has responsibility for making, defining or enforcing laws, they also have the responsibility for supervising and directing the activities of the bureaucrats within their specific areas. Is there evidence of supervisorial experience which suggests the ability to perform these duties? As any management expert would tell you, there is a direct correlation between an employee's productivity and the managerial skills of their supervisor. D. Individual Analysis. Your analysis of this data can be made from several sources. Obviously your own intuitive assessment is a factor. You can also incorporate a business profile of yourself and your opponent within your focus group. Do not identify the profiles. Have the focus group interviewer ask the members to evaluate, in general terms, one profile compared to the other. If there is a noticeable preference for one over the other, probe as to the specifics causing this differential. #ENDCARD #CARD CHAPTER VIII: In a polling environment, pick two or three specific characteristics to test. Usually this is done with questions which start with "How important is this characteristic to you in helping you to decide whom to vote for? Very important, important, not very important, or makes no difference?" Do not underestimate the value of this data. One of the major factors in George Bush's win over Michael Dukakis was the job experience factor. It consistently showed up on almost every poll taken as one of the primary reasons people were voting for Bush. This factor was also tested in a highly sophisticated modeling program written by a Mr. Jim Merritt of Phoenix, Arizona. When various business characteristics were changed while all other factors were held constant, there were significant shifts in vote results. **1** FootNotes: **1** Incidentally, this model was so incredibly accurate that a major party paid Mr. Merritt a substantial amount of money for an exclusivity contract in a critical election year - just so the opposition could not use it. #ENDCARD #CARD CHAPTER VIII: E. Analysis Chart E. Business History. _Item: _ WM _ WF _ BM _ BF _ HM _ HF _ _ + _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _1. How important is a _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _candidate's profession in _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _your voting decision? _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ + _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _2. Which profession do you _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _believe best prepares a _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _candidate for public office?-_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ + _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _3. Do you believe prior _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _management experience is _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _an asset for public office?- _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ + _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _4. Do you believe an attorney_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _is better qualified than a _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _business person to be an - _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _elected official? _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ + _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _5. If a person had been in _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _business and went bankrupt, _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _would that affect whether or _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _not you would vote for that- _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _person? _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ #ENDCARD #CARD CHAPTER VIII: F. Assignment of Values Basically in this analysis we have used the plus or minus system. So again, add up the pluses and minuses by your demographic groupings within the focus group. If you are using a poll indicate in your cross-tabs the results by demographic groups. This is another situation where having a program like Campaign A-Cross would be extremely beneficial. Doing these cross-tabs manually is such an exhaustive undertaking that the chances are you, or your staff, would become so discouraged you would never do a second one. Yet one of the primary functions of polling is to plot a graph using the results from various polls taken over a period of time. This enables you to determine shifts in attitude in a timely manner, thus enabling you to adjust your strategy accordingly. Unless you poll at regular intervals, you have lost one of your primary weapons in the strategic decision making process. You will find it difficult enough just to keep volunteers doing the interviewing much less doing the tedious work of the tabulation of their results. Programs like Campaign A-Cross at least relieve your staff of this major chore and considerably improve your chances of doing regularly scheduled polls during the course of the campaign. #ENDCARD #CARD CHAPTER VIII: G. Analysis of Data As with the other groupings of characteristics which you have analyzed, you must first study the data you have accumulated as objectively as possible. What does the data say about each of you? Is there a pattern of accomplishment in each of these profiles? Of industriousness? Of integrity? Of management experience, and/or leadership? Are there stereotypical negative factors such as high job turnover, or an indication of failing to achieve steady growth? What is the primary occupation: professional, white collar, skilled, semi-skilled, laborer? Have you or your opponent ever been in a managerial position? How much responsibility have either of you had over your working careers? Have either of you been in a position which required the development of articulation skills? A political leader must, almost by necessity, be able to effectively communicate their ideas and positions. Without these skills, their ability to perform their responsibilities is significantly diminished. One of the reasons we have so many attorneys in public office is because they receive extensive training in this area. Conversely, there are very few accountants and engineers because they receive very little training in this area, unless they pursue it on their own. Politics is one of the most stressful jobs in our society. What factors in each of your business backgrounds indicate an ability to withstand this intense pressure? Again, analyze each factor by itself and in relation to the others. Coupled with the other characteristics we have already discussed, a pattern should be developing. Do the business characteristics appear to be consistent with the other groups of characteristics? If not, why? Most of us are creatures of habit. We tend to develop consistencies in all the facets of our lives. If a characteristic, or group of characteristics, appear to be inconsistent with the others, there must be a reason for it. Find out why, it could be strategically important. H. Developing the Strategy If your analysis is based on the focus group, polls, or your own intuitive feelings, indicate a strong favorability rating for your business background, then emphasize this during the early stages of the campaign. Some candidates I have known over the years, have felt it would be immodest to stress their business accomplishments. I suggest this is false modesty. Given that your business experiences are a significant factor in the electorates decision making process, you have an obligation to be as complete and candid about your business background as possible. In your original campaign brochure, usually referred to as a bio brochure, state (along with your other positive characteristics) this grouping of characteristics. Normally, you would do this with either one liners preceded by a dot (sometimes called a bullet) or in a narrative format. I personally prefer the latter, but the bullet format can also be effective. This should be a very positive piece without reference to your opponent. If you are able to do early electronic media, carry this message into that as well. If doing television spots, go on sight to reinforce your message. For example, if you are an attorney, filming you in an empty courtroom as you discuss your concerns about justice and how hard you have worked to giver every person a fair deal, etc. would be very effective. If you are the owner of a business, a setting inside your place of business, or at the outside entrance as employees go in or out, would help make the point. #ENDCARD #CARD CHAPTER VIII: If you are just using print graphics, photos of you in these settings would also help make the point. At this stage, let others make the comparisons between your business background and your opponents's. By repeatedly stressing yours in your campaign media and press releases, you will gradually cause a comparison with your opponent. If your focus group or polling analysis indicates a negative reaction to certain characteristics in your opponent's background, use the reverse gambit when focusing on them. Who can ever forget, President Reagan's famous line in his debate with Walter Mondale when he assured the country he would never make an issue out of age - and then referred to Mondale's youth and inexperience. It was a classic reverse gambit. It completely eliminated any chance Walter Mondale had of making Reagan's advanced age an issue in the campaign. If done with a touch of humor, as President Reagan did, it can be devastating. Think about the reverse gambit the next time you want to call attention to a negative characteristic in your opponent's background. If done right, you can make your point and not be accused of negative campaigning. #ENDCARD #CARD CHAPTER IX: CIVIC HISTORY; A. Definition Civic history is defined here as the accumulated experiences a candidate has had in volunteer service to his/her community prior to becoming formally involved in the political process. It can be under the auspices of church, school, charity, social, athletic, community, or personal activity. Any type of involvement which demonstrates a willingness to serve others without financial gain. There are many reasons why individuals enter public life, but historically, our most successful politicians, regardless of party, are those who have viewed public life as a continuation of their service to the community. Unless an individual has previously demonstrated this willingness to serve, it could be an indication of others motivating factors which could be strategically significant. #ENDCARD #CARD CHAPTER IX: B. Checklist F. Civic History Candidate Opponent 1. Boy/Girl Scout Leader 2. Little League Coach 3. PTA Activist 4. Benevolent Organization 5. United Fund Activity 6. Parks & Recreation Comm. 7. Bond Committees 8. Homeowners Association 9. Youth Activity 10. Altar Society 11. Choir 12. Deacon 13. Veteran's Activities 14. Org. Visiting Sick 15. Org. Helping Homeless 16. Foster Care 17. Hospice 18. Sr. Citizen Activities 19. Others #ENDCARD #CARD CHAPTER IX: C. Resources. This information may not be as readily available as some of the previously discussed data. Normally, if it exists, it would be in your opponent's bio. The absence of it however, does not necessarily mean there has been none. Occasionally a sense of modesty might preclude a candidate's calling attention to this part of their history. Here again, the direct approach might work best. Call or write your opponent and ask him/her what groups or activities he or she has been involved in, if any. A refusal to provide a direct answer, or evasiveness, could be an indication of no activity in this regard. Check with your resources in the community, especially the centers of influence you know, to see if they are aware of any activity of this type done by your opponent. Think about your own experiences along these lines and write them down. If there are none, be prepared to explain why not when the issue arises during the course of the campaign. Remember, your opponent is probably doing this same analysis of you. D. Individual Analysis After accumulating this data, look at it from the perspective of the voter. Has there been a significant commitment of time, energy or resource devoted to the betterment of the community? What patterns have evolved? For example, has most of the activity been centered around organizations like the Elk, Moose, Lions, Junior Chamber of Commerce or is the pattern almost exclusively church oriented? Except for testing the question of whether or not a history of civic involvement is an important factor in helping a voter to decide whom they are going to vote for, you really can not test effectively the relative merits of one type of activity over the other. Rather this intelligence has value primarily in its relationship to the pattern developed by the other groupings of characteristics. To repeat what was stated in the previous chapter, we are creatures of habit. To presume that a person suddenly develops a sense of civic responsibility when they decide to run for office is a bit incredulous for most people. If a person has not demonstrated this sense of responsibility heretofore, it certainly exposes them to a legitimate questioning of motivation now. I do not mean to imply that this would be in and of itself a negative factor, but it would certainly raise a question worth pursuing. In politics we would refer to it as a "red flag." A warning signal of a possible vulnerability. Since it is not practical to test the specifics of this data with a focus group or poll I will skip the Analysis Chart and Assignment of Values sub-chapters we used with the previous groupings of characteristics. E. Analysis of Data. First study the data developed in checklist F. Be especially critical about what it says about you. Referring to the patterns previously discussed, what pattern would your opponent infer about you. Are you actively involved? Is there a consistency with one group or type of activity? If one exists, why? For example, if all or most of the activity centers around youth activities, is it only because your child, or children, were involved? Could this then be construed as not so much a sense of civic responsibility but more of a parental one? #ENDCARD #CARD CHAPTER IX: If the pattern centers heavily around benevolent organizations like the lodges, could this be construed more as a social activity, with the civic activity being only an incidental requirement of membership. Does a pattern develop which is centered around organizations like the Junior Chamber of Commerce, where though their charitable activity does provide meaningful service to the community, it is also used quite often as simply a means to foster one's business career. Or is there a pattern which shows genuine concern and compassion for the well-being of others without the other benefits discussed, except the self-satisfaction which comes from helping others? Again, these are clues, or intelligence which help develop the profile of your opponent, and yourself as your opponent might see you. A very wise person once counseled that if you were to be victorious in battle you should "know your enemy as you know yourself." It is as true today as it was when first said hundreds of years ago. F. Developing the Strategy. Your strategy in using this set of characteristics must be subtle. In regard to your own activities state them without overemphasizing them. Demonstrate that your concern for people is genuine and that you view this step into politics as an extension of that concern. Express your frustration in being unable to accomplish those things you believe need to be done to improve the quality of life in the community unless you are in a position to change the laws, or funding, or direction of leadership, etc. Do not attack your opponent for being uninvolved or for being involved for ulterior motives. Rather stress the "fact" that only one who has been involved for so long in helping to solve the communities problems could understand the pain and suffering caused by those problems and help define their solutions. It is one thing to read about the plight of the homeless, it is another to go into the streets to help them. G. Summarizing the Characteristics. This is a good place to briefly review our analysis so far of the strategic process. In the subsequent chapters we will analyze how strategy is developed dependent on all the extraneous factors which exist within the campaign environment. It is critically important to realize these other factors do not exist in a vacuum. They are all impacted by the profiles developed in this, and the preceding, chapters. I have deliberately discussed these characteristics first because too many politicians and consultants, in my opinion, place an inordinate amount of attention and emphasis on the other factors in the strategic decision making process. Over the years, I have seen too many campaigns use copy cat commercials and boiler plate campaign plans which had little or no relevance to the particulars of the campaign they were being used in at the time. In almost all the cases I can recall, the results were disastrous. I suspect in most of these campaigns the reasons copy cat commercials and boiler plate campaign plans were used are based on either ignorance or expediency. Unfortunately all too often the people who are responsible for developing strategy simply do not know how to develop it. It is, as I hope I have illustrated thus far, a scientific, yet painstaking, process. Which brings me to the other reason mentioned. It should be obvious by now that a considerable amount of hard work and effort is involved in the intelligence gathering process, not to mention, expense. #ENDCARD #CARD CHAPTER IX: It is oftentimes easier to simply copy a plan or commercial which might have worked for someone else and use it in your own campaign. Unfortunately, this is rarely the case. Just as no two people are completely alike, no two campaigns are completely alike. This is not to say there are not constant values within a campaign environment. Quite the contrary, there are many. As pointed out in one of my other books, THE CAMPAIGN MANUAL, at least 85% of the campaign is, or should be, made up of constants which have almost universal application in American style campaigns. These, however, are tactical considerations. Strategic considerations simply do not fall into such nice, neat patterns. Yet both are vital ingredients to a successful campaign. You cannot win with only one or the other. By going through the steps outlined in the previous chapters, you will gather invaluable information, not only about your opponent, but about yourself as well. You will learn to view yourself, and your opponent, not only how you perceive each other, but how the electorate perceives each of you. Given the nature of a large majority of the voting public, these factors are of paramount importance in the development of campaign strategy. Less than 15% of the electorate votes for an individual on the basis of their position on the issues, according to numerous studies done by the University of Michigan over the last forty years. This percentage actually declines the lower down the ticket you go. Unfortunately, we are so mesmerized by the Presidential and major Senatorial and gubernatorial races which capture the media's, and therefore our, attention, it is easy to presume, or extend, their considerations into all other campaigns. However, those races, by virtue of the massive amounts of money spent and media attention received, are extremely unique. They comprise less than 100 of the 425,000 elections which take place in our country every two years. To base your strategy on what worked for them not only could be, but is almost certain to be, a fatal mistake. I have often used the comparison of football to baseball, they are both games played with a ball but that is where the comparison ends. When developing your strategy, develop your strategy. Know your relative strengths and weakness as well as your opponent's, and vice-versa. Then, armed with this knowledge, begin to examine their relevance within the constraints of the following considerations and factors. Carefully study all the groupings of individual characteristics developed and combine them to develop a realistic profile of yourself and your opponent. #ENDCARD #CARD CHAPTER X: Financial Resources; A. Definition In starting a political campaign, just as in starting a business, the capital available at the start-up is extremely important. A considerable number of campaigns fail because they are undercapitalized, just as businesses fail for this reason. In business you could have the greatest idea since someone mixed peanut butter with jelly, but unless you have the resources to market your idea, it will go nowhere. The United States Patent and Trade Office receives hundreds of great ideas and inventions every week, but the number which ever go into production is insignificant. Those which do are inevitably the ones submitted by major corporations who have the resources to market them. The same is true of political campaigns. Marketing is simply another term for communicating. Unless a candidate can communicate his, or her ideas and reasons why the electorate should vote for them over the opponent, the campaign will inevitably fail. Since most means of communications in the country cost money to use, the best strategy must include the means to acquire it. In my book, THE FINANCE MANUAL, I discuss the techniques which can be used to acquire these necessary funds, but inevitably the start-up capital must be provided by the candidate and/or the candidate's closest supporters. Conversely, if your opponent does not have access to, or the ability to acquire financing of their campaign, then your strategy would change accordingly. B. Available Options. Your first option, of course, is to look at your own ability to provide the necessary start-up capital to finance your campaign. If you do not believe enough in the efficacy of your own candidacy to invest in it, why would others do so? As a rule of thumb, the necessary start-up capital, or seed money as it is sometimes referred to, is between 10 and 20% of the campaign's budget. Generally the less known a candidate is at the start of the campaign, the higher the percentage. For example, a candidate running for Congress for the first time and starting with a relatively low name ID rating would need 20% of the anticipated campaign budget in seed money. The average congressional campaign budget in 1988 was $500,000.00. So you would need $100,000.00 to begin the campaign. If you do not have this amount to invest personally in your campaign, you would normally turn to friends and family who believe in you and the possibility of your campaign winning to assist you. Realistically, your political party, strangers, PACs, or the banks will not assist you at this stage because to them you are an unknown quantity as a campaigner. The banks might be willing to make an exception if you have enough collateral to secure a loan. On the other hand, if you are an incumbent officeholder with a proven track record you should find it relatively easy to raise funds from these other sources. So depending on your status, your strategy is dictated by your options. #ENDCARD #CARD CHAPTER X: C. Legal Restrictions and Time Constraints. State or Federal legal restrictions on candidate financing may further restrict your options. In Federal campaigns, for example, you may not accept corporate contributions and personal contributions are limited to a maximum of $1,000 per person in each election period. Some states have more liberal restrictions for non-federal candidates but others are even more restrictive. Arizona, for example, limits personal contributions to $100.00. Obviously, one of the first things you should do is research the particular laws applicable to the office you are seeking. You would then develop your strategy within the framework of those particular laws. Time is also another constraint on this element of the strategic decision making process. Again, depending on your status at the outset of the campaign, vis a vis name ID ratings, incumbent, first or second time challenger, etc., you would need to plan on when you would start this activity. Generally, the lower the name ID rating, the earlier you would begin. For example, I strongly advise first time challengers to start this activity at least one full year before the election (primary or general). Candidates who have run before, can usually start 2 months later, or ten month before the election. Incumbents, depending upon how long they have been in office, can start 6 to 9 months before the election. D. Developing the Strategy. After you have analyzed your situation with regard to financial resources, analyze your opponent's. As you will see in later chapters the type of campaign tactics used are conditional on the availability of one's financial resources. In other words, if neither you nor your opponent can afford to buy a particular "weapon", then neither of you would have to factor a defense against that weapon. If on the other hand, one can and the other cannot, the one who cannot has a serious problem. In my book, THE CAMPAIGN MANUAL, I use the analogy of a chess game to make this point. If your opponent has a Queen on the board, and you don't, barring an incredible mistake by your opponent, you will lose. In campaigns, as in battles, the one with the superior firepower inevitably wins. There are exceptions of course, but they are extremely rare. As a rule, you must match your opponent's ability to use the tools, or weapons, he/she has at his/her disposal. If not always in quantity, at least in quality. If you are in the enviable position of having a major tool at your disposal which your opponent does not have, use it sparingly until your tracking polls indicate serious problems. You can sometimes provoke a backlash effect among the electorate if they perceive an over-kill. If on the other hand, you and your opponent have relatively equal strength in this regard, then other factors, including the skillful deployment of these means of communication, become a determining factor. We have already discussed several of them, e.g. the building of name ID and favorability rating. We will look at others in future chapters. #ENDCARD #CARD CHAPTER XI: PERSONNEL RESOURCES; A. Definition. A cynic once noted that if all battles were fought by generals only, there would be no wars. The reality is that many people fight in a battle and the same holds true for a campaign. Though the candidate is the focal point, there is usually a number of people, depending upon the size of the campaign, who are behind the scenes making things happen. Once you go beyond an electorate of 5,000 people, you must depend upon volunteers or paid staff members to help you implement your strategy. Whether it is putting up signs, walking precincts, working in a phone bank, etc. you need people as much as you need financial resources. Just as there is a direct correlation between the amount of money needed and the size of the campaign, there is also a direct correlation with the number of people. Generally speaking, you will need one volunteer for every 250 people in your district. So if there are 10,000 people in your district, you will need 40 volunteers. If there are 50,000, you will need 200. It is only at the highest levels, major U. S. Senate, Gubernatorial, or Presidential campaigns, that this ratio is not relevant. B. Available Options. If you are a first time candidate, the first place to look for help is to your friends and relatives. If an incumbent, an appeal for volunteers to the people you have assisted over your term in office will usually produce the desired results. The organizations you belong to, whether professional or social, are also excellent resources. Political organizations which are sympathetic with your stand on major issues of concern to them will also provide assistance. Usually this takes the form of research assistance, but occasionally they can provide volunteer help and sometimes even monetary assistance. Your local party organization may be of assistance; however, in most locales this assistance is very limited. But, it is worth checking into. In some cases your national party can also provide limited assistance. Both major parties have a local elections division to assist non-Federal candidates, and Congressional and Senatorial divisions to assist Federal candidates. In most campaigns, you will need at least one full-time staff person to assist in the day to day management of the campaign. Whether volunteer, or paid, this person should be someone with proven managerial skills. Regardless of the sources, you must be able to recruit these individuals before the start of campaign activities. You will find job duties and descriptions for the various positions in a campaign in THE CAMPAIGN MANUAL, as well as the standard organization chart for the campaign. C. Legal Restrictions and Time Constraints. #ENDCARD #CARD CHAPTER XI: Generally, there are no legal restrictions with regard to the use of genuine volunteers. If however, an organization pays for the services of an individual to work on your campaign this represents a contribution and is subject to the same restrictions which apply to financial contributions. Also, the use of an incumbent's staff is prohibited unless their time is spent after normal working hours. The time constraints are similar to the ones discussed in the previous chapter. Usually, volunteers need to be trained if they are to perform effectively. Materials have to be prepared. At least one person should be designated as the volunteer coordinator, with the responsibility to provide this training and assistance. The average amount of time a volunteer will spend on a campaign is about 20 hours. Therefore, constant recruiting is necessary to replace volunteers. Your strategy should include a plan to accomplish this on an ongoing basis. Sound strategy dictates that the first group of volunteers you recruit should be the members of your finance and steering committees. These are the two core committees of every campaign - your senior staff officers to use the military analogy. The calibre and experience of these people is an integral part of the strategic decision making process. Remember, the best strategy in the world is worthless unless you have the financial and personnel resources available to implement it. D. Developing the Strategy. Carefully analyze your personnel resources. In regard to the finance committee members, do they have the ability to actively raise funds for your campaign? Are they truly dedicated to your candidacy and are they willing to make the necessary sacrifices in time, energy, and money to help you win? The same questions must be asked of your steering committee members. Your political future depends on these people. Do you honestly believe they are capable of fulfilling their obligations. Develop a plan to actively recruit the type of people who can do this activity. One of the best sources is a center of influence within your district. Centers of influence are defined as community leaders such as pastors, rabbis, elected officials, former candidates, heads of service organizations, business leaders, and party chairpersons. After you have critically analyzed your resources, study your opponent's. Given your intelligence regarding the financial and personnel resources of your opponent, are there any types of campaign activity they would not be able to implement? For example, if they lack the resources to staff a phone bank, it would be a safe presumption they would not be using this particular tool during the campaign. What about their ability to canvass the precincts, or do an intensive Get-Out-the-Vote (GOTV) effort on election day? Are there weak spots in their campaign based on these restrictions? If so, how can you exploit them? If there are weak spots, you can take advantage of them by implementing a plan which focuses a significant percentage of your campaign's resources in those areas. As important as it is to match the communication tools which your opponent is using, it is even more important to emphasize those your opponent is not using. For example, I recall one campaign where the district's voter registration data was not computerized. It was still in hard copy format. As a result, the candidate in that district historically placed little emphasis on precinct, phone bank, and direct mail operations. The amount of work required was simply too great to do those things manually. #ENDCARD #CARD CHAPTER XI: Seeing this as a potential weak spot in his opponent's campaign, the candidate, in concert with his party's county committee, keyed into a computer the data on every registered voter in the district. This was a very expensive and tedious undertaking which took three months to accomplish. When finished, the candidate was able to do an extensive precinct, phone bank, and direct mail campaign in the district, virtually unopposed by his opponent. By the time his opponent fully realized the significant impact this was having on the campaign it was too late to counter. The candidate won in one of the most stunning upsets in the country that year. There is nothing onerous about taking advantage of an opponent's weakness in this area. If anything the nature of strategic planning demands it. There are a limited number of communicative tools available to most candidates. They are: 1. Precinct operations (canvassing) 2. Phone Bank operations 3. Print graphics 4. Stationary and mobile signs 5. Direct mail 6. Radio ads 7. Television ads 8. Newspaper ads 9. Candidate activities 10. Free media Some of these tools are functions of financial resources, some of personnel. Analyze carefully which you can employ based on your resources and which ones your opponent can use. If there are any disparities, plan on exploiting them as a part of your strategy. If there are none, then skill and intensity become the next criteria to consider. However, before we can discuss these factors you need to analyze the district (or battlefield) as carefully as you analyzed yourself and your opponent. #ENDCARD #CARD CHAPTER XII: DEMOGRAPHIC CHARACTERISTICS OF THE DISTRICT; A. Definition. As we have already seen, demographics are the characteristics which describe individuals by obvious categories. Gender, race, marital status, occupation, income levels, religious affiliation, party affiliation, age, and nationality are most commonly used in the political process. There are considerably more categories than this, but as a rule, their value in this type of analysis is limited. The extra work and cost involved does not justify their inclusion. The relevant scale of these demographic characteristics usually is prioritized as follows: 1. Gender 2. Race 3. Age 4. Marital Status 5. Party Affiliation 6. Religious Affiliation 7. Occupation 8. Income Levels Numbers 4 thru 8 will shift in priority depending on which issues are of greatest concern in your district at any given time. Also, occupation in some districts, especially in the northeast and upper midwest areas of the country, might have a sub-category of union member or non-union member. B. Relative Value. Demographic groupings tend to share common concerns, values, and perspectives. If you are to effectively communicate your message to these groupings, you must know what they are and how they perceive them. You also need to know what percentile of the whole electorate each grouping constitutes. Your campaign has limited resources and if you are going to use them for maximum effectiveness you cannot afford to waste them on groupings which are not receptive. Idealistically, you should be a leader who would be able to convince all of the groupings to follow your direction. The reality though is that a political campaign is not a pulpit. Unless you win and thereby acquire the ability to provide your solutions to the problems, your campaign becomes virtually meaningless. I am fully aware of the historical significance minor parties and their candidates have had on our public policy. Some have been effective in causing the national parties to shift their positions on major issues. However, whether or not these shifts would have been more purposeful and comprehensive had they won office is a debatable question which never can be answered. As I pointed out early in this book, my presumption is that a person enters a political campaign to win. In order to do this you must identify the major concerns of a majority of the people in your district who are going to vote and develop your strategy accordingly. I do not mean to imply or suggest that you espouse positions which are alien to your philosophy. Rather a winning strategy dictates an emphasis on those issues which you do share with a majority of the electorate and a de-emphasis on those which do not. #ENDCARD #CARD CHAPTER XII: Conversely, if you are aware of a contradictory position held by your opponent with a majority of the district, your strategy would be to expose this differential to the electorate. However, unless you have done the research necessary to determine all of this, you would be unable to implement either of these strategies. C. Available Resources. To obtain a general overview of the demographical make-up of your district, the first data to look at is the U. S. Census data. This data is normally available in major public or university libraries. This data is broken out by most of the major groupings you would be concerned about. Unfortunately, this data is becoming rather outdated since it has been so many years since the last census; however, it should be close enough for your purposes. In 1991, updated and therefore more accurate figures will be available. This data is broken down into what are called census tracts. These are geographical areas designated by a number covering every square inch of the country. Since many political district's boundaries are configured along census tract boundaries, it is relatively easy to acquire specific data for your district. It is helpful in your planning if you superimpose the census tract boundaries and numbers over your precinct or zip code map of the district. If your game plan is using the 5 on 5 organization plan recommended in THE CAMPAIGN MANUAL, you would try to draw your Regional and Area boundary lines based, in part, on major demographical groupings. After you have obtained the census data select the demographic groupings which are most relevant in your district and campaign. Then when drawing your sample for polling or focus group purposes, try to match as closely as possible the percentages based on the census data. For example, if the census data indicates 53% of the people in your district who are of voting age are female, then 53% of your polling sample or focus group should be female. Once you have determined the percentiles for the groupings you have chosen and drawn your sample, you could then proceed to poll or conduct the focus group sessions in order to determine the issues of greatest concern to those individuals. D. Developing the Strategy. Armed with this insight, you would then develop your position papers, basic speech, press releases, ads, etc. emphasizing your position on those particular issues. If, of course, your position coincides with the positions taken by a majority of the people in your district. If there are a number of issues of concern, your poll or focus group should attempt to rank them in order of relative importance. Your strategy should be to focus on a maximum of 2 or 3 issues during the campaign. If you attempt to concentrate on more, not only will you dilute your message, but you will fail to identify a theme the electorate can relate to in their decision-making process. Remember, a critical part of your strategy must be to build a favorable image of yourself as well as a high name ID. Once you have determined what the major concerns of a majority of the electorate are, you would then, by word and pictures, show your concern in all letters, brochures, speeches, etc., your campaign does during the election period. #ENDCARD #CARD CHAPTER XII: Even your choice of campaign colors can reinforce these messages. Certain groupings tend to favor certain colors and combinations. Once you have decided which grouping you are going to focus on, try to find out what are their predominant color preferences. You will find for example that white, adult males, in general, tend to prefer blue. Concentrate the greatest percentage of your campaign activities, at all levels, among those groupings which can provide you with a majority of votes based on your research. Especially in the early stages of the campaign. Though the old cliche is true, that every vote you take away from your opponent is worth two, the amount of effort and cost involved in securing that vote usually is not worth it. Again, you are dealing with limited resources. It may make for good public relations to announce you are going to take your campaign to all the people, but the fact of the matter is, if you do, you will probably lose. Ask Mike Dukakis if you need confirmation of this. Until your polling indicates you have a viable opportunity among a specific grouping which previous research indicated a low chance of winning, do not waste valuable resources going after them. Your signs, general ads, and free press coverage will give you some exposure, in any case. If, toward the latter stages of your campaign, you have totally secured your base and maximized your vote opportunities among the undecideds, or ticket-splitters, you might make some overtures to the other groupings, if resources permit. In THE CAMPAIGN MANUAL there is a very precise method of determining this throughout the campaign. if you follow it, you will know where you are at in relation to your objectives at any given time during the campaign. As a result, you will know if and when to make those overtures. As mentioned previously, if your opponent's position on one or more of the major issues is out of sync with a majority of the electorate, it is sound strategy to bring this up during the campaign. If you do though, remember the timing factor. until your favorability rating is greater than 50%, you should focus your strategy on a positive campaign which will build it up to that percentile. Once you have achieved this credibility as a candidate, your criticisms of your opponent will be acceptable to the electorate. If you start before then, you run a high risk of being dismissed as a negative candidate with no program of your own. Once you have reached this particular plateau in the campaign, you should then evaluate your opponent's favorability rating. If it is well below 50%, stay the course and avoid criticizing. If it is also above 50%, then you have no choice but to pursue this differential aggressively in order to bring your opponent's rating below 50%. Not only does sound strategy dictate this course of action, but an argument could be made that if your opponent is so effectively out of sync with a majority of the electorate, you have an obligation to bring this out in the open. #ENDCARD #CARD CHAPTER XIII: GEOGRAPHIC CHARACTERISTICS OF THE DISTRICT; A. Definition The physical characteristics of the geo-political district in which you are seeking elective office. Its size and topography are the primary considerations. Next you would include accessibility to various points within the district and the modes of transportation required. B. Relevant Factors Time is one of the major problems in most campaigns. Many candidates start their campaign with the mistaken notion that they will be able to personally make contact with all, or most, of the registered voters in their district. They soon find out this is usually impossible. The best you can hope to do is to maximize the percentage you can see. For example, in an average congressional district, the average percentage seen is 20% over a nine month campaign. A well-planned strategy could improve this to 30 or 40%. Since the candidate's activities, i.e. personal contact with the electorate, are some of the most powerful weapons in the campaign, time is a serious consideration. This is one of the reasons why the media has become such a dominant factor in many campaigns. Essentially, it is a substitute for personal contact. Originally, media was used to supplement the candidate's activities. Regrettably, during the past ten years it is becoming more of a substitute. I use the word regrettably, because it is still a poor substitute, at best. People like to meet the candidate face to face. Even if it is just a quick handshake and a few words, they will remember the experience. Numerous polls taken after a candidate has walked a precinct show a marked improvement in the favorability rating and voter preference for the candidate. It really works. Rather than find substitutions for this activity, a good campaign should seek ways to increase it. It is hard work and it does subject the candidate to rejection which is why so many candidates prefer the substitute. C. Analysis of the District What are the physical characteristics of your district? How large is it? Is it urban, suburban, rural, or a combination? Is it flat, mountainous, or a combination? Are there physical barriers such as rivers, lakes, or other bodies of water? What are the roads like and how much time does it take to travel from one point to another at various times of the day and evening? Can it be traveled comfortably by car or is an airplane required? **1** Are the homes relatively close together so you can walk the precinct, or do you need to drive from one home to another? What impact does the local weather have on this activity at any given time of the campaign? A precinct in Minnesota which might be walked in June would probably be an impossibility in February. FootNotes: **1** In districts around the Puget Sound in Washington state, you have to consider boat travel as well. #ENDCARD #CARD CHAPTER XIII: What other campaign activities, besides the candidate's, might be affected by these geographic considerations? Is the district so large that long distance phone charges would make a centralized phone bank economically unsound? What impact does the size of the district and any physical barriers have on scheduling regular meetings with key volunteer personnel or planning campaign events? Does the size of the district have an impact on the electorate's primary issue concerns from one area to another? What effect does the size of the district have on the availability and type of media? These are the types of questions which must be asked and answered in the strategic decision making process. D. Developing the Strategy It has been said that the way to solve a big problem is to break it up into smaller parts and then solve each of these smaller problems individually. In developing this aspect of campaign strategy this is sound advice. In THE CAMPAIGN MANUAL, I discuss at length the advantages of a campaign structural plan which is called the 5 on 5 plan. This plan is so effective in facilitating the administration of the campaign and its internal communications that when Frank Flucke and I first designed Political Campaign Management Software (PCMS), we incorporated the 5 on 5 plan into the program. It is just as effective in solving some of the problems we have been discussing in this chapter. Essentially, the 5 on 5 plan divides a political district into 5 Regions, and then sub-divides each Region into 5 Areas. Each Area is comprised of so many precincts, depending on the number in the district. Ideally there is an equitable distribution of the electorate in each of the Areas and the Regions. However, when the geographic considerations are factored in, this might impact the distribution. The question then becomes one of priority. If there are serious problems with the ideal division, then every effort should be made to accommodate the geographic considerations. **1** In other words, Region and Area lines should be drawn with the geographic constraints in mind. If possible, you would not, for example, configure a Region or Area crossing a major river or freeway. If you have a number of counties in your district, you would attempt to keep county lines intact, and cluster them within the same Region. In doing this, you solve several problems. When campaigning, you can focus your activity in a single day within a specific Region by proper scheduling. This cuts down considerably on travel time and maximizes your more productive efforts, i.e. seeing voters. If the Regions are spread over a large geographical area, you would establish Regional headquarters and phone banks in each one, in order to reduce telephone costs. You would also be able to focus your campaign messages on the issues which are of primary concern to the electorate within each of the Regions. By taking the larger problem and breaking it down in this manner, it not only becomes more manageable, it significantly increases the productive value of one of your campaign's strongest assets. Your strategy would entail scheduling your events and appearances within a specific Region or Area, after your voter analysis indicates where the greatest opportunity to obtain votes is in relation to other areas. That is where the greatest number, in relative terms, of undecided voters reside. FootNotes: **1** This also applies, as we will see in the next chapter, to economic characteristics. #ENDCARD #CARD CHAPTER XIII: Once you have secured your base of support, your next level of activity should be to focus on those voters who are traditionally ticket-splitters or undecideds. The 5 on 5 plan of organization helps you to focus your campaign activities on these groups in an efficient and productive manner. Instead of working against the geographic characteristics of your district, you work within them. This results in a maximization of your time and effort. As to the style of your campaign activity, in regards to door to door campaigning, there are a few basic rules to follow. When canvassing, you should always try to have someone with you. If you have a precinct captain, or representative, that person would be the ideal one to accompany you. Have a sufficient quantity of literature with you to pass out. Some should be stamped with, "I was campaigning in your neighborhood today and would have liked to meet you. Sorry I missed you. If you have any questions about me or my campaign, please don't hesitate to give me a call at ." Leave these in the door, or someplace obvious. Most people will appreciate your thoughtfulness and respond favorably. If you are using a computer program like PCMS 2.0, you should prepare a printout of the precinct you will be walking in street order. That is, with the names and houses listed in sequential order so you can walk one side of the street and then the other. Keep your visit brief. A simple hello and introduction, followed by a request for their support in the upcoming election is all that is necessary. Hand the person a brochure and say goodbye. Sometimes a little gimmick can be very effective. I recall one race where the candidate, who was running on an environmental issue, obtained thousands of little pine tree seedlings, about an inch and a half high. He had a tag put on them which simply stated it was with his compliments and his name and the office he was running for. If someone wasn't home, he left it on their doorstep. The impact was almost unbelievable. He won that state legislative race and went on to become a U. S. Congressman. People are still talking about that little pine tree - many of which were planted and are thriving to this day. As with all other characteristics which we have discussed thus far, the geographic characteristics are an integral part of the strategic decision making process. It must be taken into consideration when developing your strategy. #ENDCARD #CARD CHAPTER XIV: ECONOMIC CHARACTERISTICS OF THE DISTRICT; A. Definition. The economic characteristics of a district are defined as the per capita income of the people living in the district. Also included are factors such as the unemployment rate, the average price of a new house, the relative economic stability of the district during the past ten years, and its projected growth rate. Most of the specific data involved here is available at your local Chamber of Commerce. Also, current census data, the local Board of Realtors Association, and local investment counselors can provide some of this data. B. Relevant Factors. Politics affects economics, and economics affects politics. In fact, the two are so inter-related and inter-dependent that you cannot discuss the problems and/or solutions of one without the other. It has never ceased to amaze me how so many universities attempt to study one discipline without a detailed study of the other. It is as though they believe each one operates in a vacuum in the outside world. Unfortunately, so many political science majors who go on to become politicians or political consultants are poorly prepared to deal with these characteristics in the campaign, and as officeholders. When taken collectively, Federal, State and local taxes account for approximately 42% of the American wage-earners budget. In other words, $ .42 out of every dollar earned is spent on government services of one kind or another. This is a larger percentage then the amounts spent on food, housing, or transportation. I do not mean to digress from this chapter's discussion, but the inter-relationship in this area is so strong, unless you fully understand the ramifications of your decisions as an elected official, or of your opponent's if you are a challenger, you cannot fully evaluate the economic characteristics of your district as it pertains to the strategic decision making process. To the person whose per capita income is $18,000 per year, there is a significantly greater appreciation of that 42% tax factor than the person whose per capita income is $50,000 per year. If the average price of a home is $92,000, this too is of greater significance to the voter averaging $18,000 per year versus the one earning $50,000. Conversely if the average price drops to $52,000 then the degree of differential, as it relates to significance, is not as great. So a study of the economic characteristics of your district is very important in the development of your campaign strategy. #ENDCARD #CARD CHAPTER XIV: C. Analysis of the District In the previous chapter, we discussed the 5 on 5 plan's ability to help solve certain problems in the development of campaign strategy. This tool is also effective in addressing this area of concern. After you have divided your district along the geographical and demographical lines previously discussed, study the economic characteristics of each Region separately from the whole district. In many districts you will find significant differences between them. There is an old adage which says that birds of a feather flock together. This tends to be true in our society, though not necessarily by choice. More often than not, where we live is dictated for us by economic considerations. So the issues you would stress and the solutions proposed should be tailored to the specifics of each Region, as opposed to a generic message delivered district-wide. To some extent, even your style of campaigning and fund-raising should be tailored to the economic considerations of each Region. Using the criteria established in the definition section of this chapter, develop an economic profile for each Region. What is the per capita income, the unemployment rate, the average price of a new home, the 10 year stability rate, and the projected growth rate of each Region? D. Developing the Strategy Throughout the district your campaign message should focus on the two most important factors which determine the successful outcome of an election: building up your name ID and favorability ratings. We have already discussed at length how this can be accomplished. The next step involves the development of specific messages to the electorate which demonstrate your concern about the primary issues of concern to them and your solutions for them, to the extent you can affect them in the office for which you are running. In many cases, you will find that two or more Regions share the same concerns and the messages can then be constant. However, where there is a difference, your message must be different, i.e. tuned to their specific concerns. Primarily, your strategy should be designed to accomplish this through the use of direct mail and your personal campaigning. These two methods of communication are the most effective and economically viable in most campaigns. In the earlier chapters, I discussed tailoring your direct mail to the primary concerns of various demographic groupings. As you will recall, if you were shown how, through focus groups and polling, you could determine what these concerns were for each. Through the same methods, and at the same time, you can identify these concerns based on economic characteristics. Then by developing what are called variable paragraphs, you can tailor your direct mail to address the greatest possible majority of these concerns. It is a tedious process and to implement it does require the use of a computer and a program like PCMS, which has the capability of generating personalized letters. However, it can be done and its impact on the outcome of the campaign will be significant. **1** The methodology involved requires the development of at least thirty to forty paragraphs (usually three or four sentences) differing in content, style, and readability levels. FootNotes: **1** When considering the cost involved, be thankful you are not running as little as four years ago. Then, the only way you could do this was on a main frame computer at ten times the cost. #ENDCARD #CARD CHAPTER XIV: By interchanging these paragraphs between the first and last paragraphs of a five or six paragraph letter, you can create an incredible number of personalized letters in virtually the same amount of time it takes to generate a generic letter. Remember, the letter should be one page in length and comprised of five or six paragraphs. The first and last paragraphs are constants and the middle three or four are variables. Each variable paragraph should deal with a specific issue and be written in different styles and readability levels. The more demographic and economic characteristics you wish to address, the more variable paragraphs you will need. Different writers have different methods and styles of accomplishing this objective. Personally, I find that numbering the paragraphs by related categories and sub-categories is most effective. A system of 1A, 1B, 1C, etc. identifying 1 as the major grouping, and the letters representing the sub-groupings works for me. For example, 1A would be the primary paragraph, 1B would be essentially the same paragraph but written in a different style and level of readability, and 1C, different still. 1A in this example might be white males 18 to 30 years of age. 1B would be white males 30 to 50, and 1C - white males 50 years and older. After I have written a number of paragraphs covering these types of groupings, I would then begin a series combining a different set of groupings which my analysis indicates is prevalent in the district. The content, or message, of each paragraph is, of course, tailored to the primary concerns of that specific grouping. Again, this is determined from your focus groups and polling. When all of the letters are done, they are entered into the computer and the voter registration files are then sorted and selected based on the same criteria, i.e. males 18-30, etc. The computer then melds the two and generates the appropriate letter as quickly as it would a generic letter. The result is you could conceivably have twenty different houses on the same street receiving twenty different personalized letters. Each one addressing their specific concerns and your proposed solutions. The results are dramatic, to say the least. When it comes to writing in a different style and readability level, I find it helps considerably to try and visualize someone you know in that particular grouping. Then use the same words in writing that you would use verbally in discussing that issue. Most of us consciously or unconsciously tailor our speech to our audience. Simply do the same with your letter writing. Avoid stilted language. Be personal and informal. Write as much from the heart as the head. A letter is a very personal means of communication, unlike television or radio which is so impersonal. Think of the people you are writing to as your friends, and share with them your common concerns and their solutions. Don't be afraid to use contractions and idiomatic expressions. This isn't an English 101 assignment. Show the reader you are a real person just like them, with feelings and concern. Be sincere, and always close with an appeal for their vote, their help, and their money to help finance this campaign. These letters should be positive in nature. Avoid saying anything about your opponent, except by inference. Later, we will discuss doing comparative pieces in mailings which are less personal. A letter should be a sharing experience, not an opportunity to bludgeon your opponent. #ENDCARD #CARD CHAPTER XIV: A letter like this should be mailed at least twice during the course of the campaign. As your polling indicates shifts in the electorate by groupings which are for or against you, you can tailor your mail program accordingly. As the old political saying goes, it doesn't make sense to preach to the saved or the damned. Focus your resources on those groupings which show up most consistently in the ranks of the undecideds, or ticket-splitters. This is especially true in the latter stages of the campaign. In your personal campaigning and fund-raising, tailor your style to the group's economic characteristics. This does not mean you should pander to the particular group with whom you are campaigning. It does mean finding a common ground in style of speech and conversation with these groups of people. It means being aware of local colloquialisms and when to use them when speaking. It also means communicating through your speech and body language you are able to relate to them as individuals. For years, I have tried to encourage my clients to take at least one course in Oral Communications at their local college. It is without question the best training I am aware of to help develop these skills. If you feel you need help in this area, you might want to check it out. Tailor your fund-raising activity in a particular Region based on its economic characteristics. in one of my other books, THE FINANCE MANUAL, there is a whole chapter devoted to the various types of fund-raising events which are productive and tailored to these economic characteristics. Remember, as an officeholder at any level from local to national, you are going to make decisions which will affect the economics of every person in your district. A major part of your strategy, therefore, should be to demonstrate to the electorate you have an awareness of this responsibility and the determination to exercise it prudently. Keep the discussion focused on you and your solutions. Remember, if the electorate were completely satisfied with your opponent's understanding and solutions, they wouldn't be listening to you. #ENDCARD #CARD CHAPTER XV: VOTING CHARACTERISTICS OF THE DISTRICT; A. Definition. The voting characteristics of the district are defined as the makeup of the electorate by party identification, i.e. Republicans, Democrats, and non-aligned. It also includes the voting results of the district over the last three election cycles (six years) and the percentage of voter turn-out in each of those election periods. These figures are usually available at your county registrar of voters office, the secretary of states' office, your political party's headquarters, or in a political almanac. B. Relevant Factors. In developing your campaign strategy you must analyze the previous results of campaigns for the office for which you are running. You also need to analyze these results in relation to other campaigns taking place at the same time and covering the same geo-political area, either extending beyond it, or as a part of it. You must also try to determine, as closely as possible, the expected turn-out of voters in your election, i.e. the actual number of votes which will be cast. In a later chapter, we will be discussing the impact of other races on your campaign. In this chapter, I will focus more on historical patterns and their relevance to your campaign. Barring a major calamity or issue, there is a strong tendency for voting history to repeat itself in any given geo-political district. For example, if the voter turn-out in the previous off-year election (a non-Presidential election year) has been 42% of the electorate, the odds are it will be around 42% in your campaign, if it is occurring in a non-Presidential election year. If it goes up to 54% in a Presidential election year, the odds are it will be around that percentile in your campaign if it is occurring in a Presidential election year. However, you must go a step further. There is a propensity for the percentile to drop as you go down the ballot. In other words, it might be 52% for the Presidential campaign, hold around that percentile for the statewide races, and then gradually drop for the Congressional, state representative or senator, and local races. However, this is a general statement. I have seen some campaigns at the lower levels draw a higher percentile than the higher races. If this has occurred in previous campaigns for the office you are running for, it is critically important that you analyze the reasons for this unusual occurrence. The important point is that you need to know what the expected turn-out will be for your specific race in the year you are running. Unless you have an accurate projection of this figure (the percent of turn-out times the total number of registered voters), you have no firm basis for determining your objectives - the number of votes you must have to win. The relevance of party registration in a particular district becomes more significant the lower down the ballot you go. Most ticket-splitting occurs at the Presidential, gubernatorial, U. S. Senate, and Congressional levels. #ENDCARD #CARD CHAPTER XV: If you are running for a different office in a year in which one of these other races is also going on, there is a strong tendency for people to revert to party lines when casting their vote. If it is an odd-year election, this tendency is not as strong. So the registration breakdown in your district could be extremely important in the strategic decision making process. **1** C. Analysis of the District. The most popular tool political campaign consultants use to do this type of analysis is called a PIPS analysis. First developed at Claremont University in California in 1972, it has proven to be a very scientific method of determining specific objectives. However, its accuracy is dependent on your skill in picking the right campaigns to factor into the formula. Normally you would take the voting results for three races in at least the last two cycles. It becomes even more accurate if you use three, but two will normally suffice. The races chosen are referred to as the high, the low and the median. Some people use a Presidential campaign as the high race. I consider this a mistake. As a result of the aforementioned propensity for ticket-splitting at that level, the results tend to be skewered when applied against lower levels. I find that a closely contested race for Governor, or U. S. Senate, provides a more realistic measurement. For the low race, pick one of the more non-controversial state-wide races like Secretary of State, or State Controller, etc. Usually, the votes these races draw are more strictly along party lines. They also tend to draw the lowest turn-out percentage. For the median race, you should use the previous results of the campaigns for the office for which you are running. Once you have decided on the races you will be using in your analysis, the rest is simple arithmetic. On a precinct by precinct basis, add the total number of votes cast for each year's race and divide the sum by three. The result will be a very accurate prediction of the total number of votes which can be expected to be cast in a like year. In most campaigns there will be a differential between the two years you have used in your analysis. You can add the two sets of figures, and divide them by two, or to give yourself a margin for error, use the higher figure. Once you have arrived at this final result, study the voter registration figures for that precinct by party affiliation. Even in states which do not register by party, this percentile can be determined by analyzing the primary election results of a partisan race. For example, assume Precinct 347 has 420 registered voters. Your PIPS analysis indicates the voter turn-out in this precinct will be 46%, or 193 votes. A further analysis of Precinct 347 indicates that 32% of the voters are registered Republican, 38% are Democrat, and the remaining 30% are non-aligned. Applying these percentages to the expected voter turn-out of 193 would produce the following results: 62 Republican voters 73 Democratic voters 58 independent voters Assuming your campaign has secured your base of support, you could plan on receiving 90% of your partisan vote. If you are a Republican, this would equal 56 votes. Since your minimal objective for this precinct is 50% + 1 you would need 97 votes to win. Subtracting your partisan vote of 56 from 97 leaves 41 additional votes needed. FootNotes: **1** Even in non-partisan races, there is a tendency for the votes to fall along party lines. #ENDCARD #CARD CHAPTER XV: Generally you could expect to receive 10% of the Democratic votes, or 7. Subtracting 7 from 41, leaves 34. Therefore, of the 58 independent voters you must receive 59% of those votes, or the remaining 34 needed to win. Obviously, a clear indication of where and how to focus your campaign activity. If you are using a campaign computer program like Political Campaign Management Software (PCMS) you would post these results in the appropriate section for each precinct. The numbers would then print at the top of each telephone bank and precinct walk-sheet printout as a constant reminder of that precinct's objectives. If you are not using a computer, then prepare a wall chart listing all of the precincts and their respective objectives. Post this in your telephone bank, or campaign headquarters. D. Developing the Strategy. In THE CAMPAIGN MANUAL, there is a detailed plan of operations, divided over the five stages of the campaign **1** which is designed to not only focus your campaign's activities on these objectives, but to also monitor the campaign's progress in achieving them. This plan involves a concerted effort at various levels focusing in the early stages on securing your base of support and then directing your efforts toward the independent voters. It enables you to know with a high degree of certainty, at any given stage of the campaign, whether or not you are realizing your objectives. It then enables your campaign to achieve its objectives by focusing its energies on election day in your get-out-the-vote drive (GOTV). Regrettably, doing all of this, from the PIPS analysis to conducting this type of campaign, requires a considerable amount of hard work and effort. All too many candidates, especially challengers, try to take more expedient routes and fail. They prefer to rely on intuition or the advice of others who at best don't know any better or, at worst, stand to profit by their advice. I have spent the better part of this book so far, discussing the necessity of developing demographic profiles of yourself, your opponent and most importantly, of the electorate. I have tried to point out the necessity of sound intelligence gathering as a major factor in the strategic decision making process. If you were to do all of this and then fail to capitalize on that intelligence you will be making a serious error, to say the least. However, if you couple that intelligence with a plan of action as outlined in this chapter, the results will be formidable. If you cross-reference the demographic information developed in the previous chapters with the results of your PIPS analysis, you will have a precise analysis of those groupings of individuals you must convince to vote for you in order to win. Once this is done, you can target your media campaign, including the direct mail program discussed in the previous chapter, with an incredibly high degree of accuracy. This will result in a maximization of all the campaign's efforts, including your own activities. Rather than scheduling your candidate's activities in a reactive manner, you are able to reinforce your other campaign's activities in a very precise, deliberate manner. Instead of wasting large sums of money shotguning your campaign's message, you can conserve this limited resource and focus it for maximum effectiveness. FootNotes: **1** Seven, if there is a contested primary election. #ENDCARD #CARD CHAPTER XV: In twenty years, I have never found an easy way to win an election. I have become, therefore, very suspicious of political consultants and campaigners who say they know of an easy way to win an election. I realize, of course, that occasionally something happens quite by accident and a candidate wins without going through this process but the odds of that happening are extremely small when compared to the total number of campaigns conducted every two years in this country (450,000). If you are a serious candidate for public office, and I presume you are just by virtue of having read this far, you must develop a strategy which is sound and reasonably certain of victory if followed precisely. You owe it not only to yourself for the sacrifices you are making as a candidate, but to your family and the hundreds, if not thousands, of people who are supporting your campaign. #ENDCARD #CARD CHAPTER XVI: MEDIA CHARACTERISTICS OF THE DISTRICT; A. Definition. The media characteristics of the district are defined as commercially available methods of communicating with the electorate. They include television, radio, newspapers, magazines, newsletters, tabloids, direct mail, stationary signs, mobile signs (including airplane banners and blimps), print material, potholders and other novelty items, and sound trucks. B. Relevant Factors. As stated previously, the primary weapons of your campaign are the various types of communications. As with weapons in battle, each one has its primary function and effectiveness. A well developed campaign strategy requires a detailed knowledge of each of those weapons and their proper utilization in a campaign. Which one to use, how and when to use it for maximum effectiveness are relevant factors in the strategic decision making process. Having a precise knowledge of which methods are readily available to your campaign and are most cost-effective in realizing your objectives is also critically important. You can, for example, use television commercials to build up your name ID, but for most campaigns this is a very inefficient use of this device. Knowing which alternative methods of communication are just as effective and more reasonably priced is a critical element of your intelligence gathering. To put it into military terms, only the Pentagon would use a tank to do what a jeep could do just as effectively. In building name ID, for example, you need to know something about the psychology of people as it pertains to the introduction of a new product or idea. In our society we are being bombarded daily with new products and ideas. Most of us have built up a relatively high resistance to the introduction of these new ideas and products. **1** When it comes to political candidates this resistance reaches its peak. I often refer to it as a steel door in the mind. Not only do most people resist the introduction of a new candidate, they repel it. In order to batter down this steel door, you must use a method of communication which is not only persuasive but highly repetitive. The message must be seen at least every other day over a period of six or more months by a majority of the electorate in your district. To sustain this kind of penetration using television, radio, or newspapers would be well beyond the reach of most candidates, unless, of course, you are Jay Rockefeller. Alternate methods, which are available, must therefore, be found. As indicated previously, your name ID rating is the first criteria to be met. Keep in mind, virtually all of these methods will work, given enough time and resources. The relevancy is which work best, relatively speaking, within these constraints. FootNotes: **1** Children, on the other hand, have not yet developed this resistance and are much more susceptible to them. #ENDCARD #CARD CHAPTER XVI: C. Analysis of the District. Before you can make these determinations and develop your strategy accordingly, you need to do an analysis of the available media outlets within your district. 1. Television. Are there one or more television stations located within your district, or are they located outside of it thereby covering a much broader area? What are the average costs for a 30 second spot in news and prime time? What are the station's costs for ROS **1** time? What policies does the station have regarding the allocation of time to all candidates? Federal law requires TV stations to make an equal amount of time available to each candidate requesting it, but some stations limit the total amount of time to be divided among the candidates. 2. Radio. Radio stations should be analyzed based on the same criteria. They too have different rate schedules for different times of the day. Their most expensive time is what is called "drive time." Those periods in the morning and evening when most people are commuting in their cars. They also sell ROS time, and will usually guarantee so many spots in drive time if you purchase it. 3. Newspapers. How many are available in your district? Are they daily or weekly? Do they endorse candidates, and if so, what is their history in this regard? If weeklies, what are their deadline days for ads and articles? What are their rate schedules for various size ads and how do they vary based on the length of the run, i.e. how many times you plan on repeating the ad? As we will see later, newspapers are not subjected to the same Federal regulations regarding political candidates as radio and television. What are their policies regarding space allocation and rates for political candidates? If a daily, what are the circulation rates for each day of the week? Which sections are the most widely read based on their research? Which demographic groups read which sections? In television and radio the Arbitron ratings can provide this information for each show and period of time. Newspapers also use the same type of research. 4. Signs. Does your district permit billboards? Are there buses which use side and rear signs going through your district on a regularly scheduled basis? What about taxis and bus waiting bench signs? Is there a metro rail system in your district which sells sign space in the cars? What are your local restrictions regarding the use of lawn, window and pole signs? Are there any restrictions regarding the use of bumper stickers or signs in public places? What about the use of signs near polling places? 5. Sound trucks or other vehicles. What are the local restrictions regarding the use of sound vehicles in residential neighborhoods? Can they be used in commercial areas? Are blimps or airplane sign towing services available in your district? What are the local restrictions regarding their use? What are their hourly rates? The other methods of communication can be addressed in the same manner. Usually there are no restrictions with regard to campaign novelty items, though an argument could be made about their cost-effectiveness in a campaign. D. Developing the Strategy. After you have completed this analysis, study the results. If a particular method of communication is not readily available to you, or economically viable, discard it. There is no sense considering television for example, if you are running for a state representative's office in a major metropolitan area. FootNotes: **1** Run of the Station. This enables the station to place the commercials whenever they want to fill open time. it is usually much less expensive than scheduled time but you have no assurances of when your commercials will be shown. #ENDCARD #CARD CHAPTER XVI: Not only would it be cost prohibitive, the overflow would be too great to justify the expenditure, i.e. the coverage would greatly exceed the boundary limits of your district. Apply this test to the other methods of communication you researched. Through this process of elimination, many candidates will find their viable options severely limited and this will dictate the strategy to be used. If your race has all or most of these methods available to it, then you should develop your strategy based on your primary objectives in each stage of the campaign. In the early stages, for example, if your primary objective is to build name ID, you would use stationary signs as the most cost-effective manner to accomplish this. In advertising, one of the methods used to evaluate the efficiency of each communication device is the G. R. P. rating for gross rating points. Research is done, and it must be accurate, to determine how many people on any give day and at any hour will see or hear a particular message. In some cases, this is broken down even further by demographic classifications. If for example a certain number of billboards, strategically placed around your district has a 50% G. R. P. rating this would mean that on any given day, 50% of the people who leave their home would see at least one of the billboards. Billboards and 4 X 8 signs strategically placed throughout the district, over a period of at least six months, are extremely effective in building name ID. A 50% G. R. P. rating over this period of time would usually result in an increase of at least 50 points in name ID on a scale of 1 - 100. However, there are several considerations you must make when using this type of communication. First, keep the message simple. The average motorist has only 4 seconds to read a billboard or sign. If it takes longer than that, they will shut it out and drive by without focusing on it. Emphasize your name and the office for which you are running. Have your graphics prepared professionally. It doesn't make sense to spend thousands of dollars for billboard space rental and then have the message look as though it was done by your 8 year old. Use at least two colors and keep it consistent with your campaign's colors. As to the use of pictures, there is much difference of opinion in professional circles. I am on the side which prefers to use them. I believe an attractive picture adds depth to the message and also increases the favorability rating by making the board more personal. Finally, be sure to rotate the boards every two months in a six month cycle. Change both the location and the paper. This keeps the message looking fresh and adds to the pervasiveness of it. During the middle stages of the campaign, use direct mail and tabloids to build your favorability rating. This will also reinforce the message being sent from the campaign by your phone bank, precinct captains, press releases and your own activities. We have already discussed how to use direct mail for maximum effectiveness. Now we will look at the use of the tabloid. Tabloids, first of all, are very inexpensive, usually in the 2 1/2 to 4 1/2 cent range. If done right, they enable you to tell a story, primarily with pictures, about the type of person you are and why you should be elected. There are several types of tabloids. The one designed for building favorability ratings utilizes many pictures, few words - mostly captions, and a great deal of open space between the pictures. #ENDCARD #CARD CHAPTER XVI: Another type is more issue oriented. In this type you reprint all of your press releases, as though they were news stories. It gives those people who are genuinely concerned about the issues, and your position on them, an opportunity to evaluate you. Usually this is mailed selectively to those people who indicate they are undecided to your phone bank callers or precinct captains. The third type is used in the latter stages of the campaign and is referred to as a comparative piece. Some would call it a negative, or attack, piece. The essence of it is to take 10 or 12 key issues as determined by your focus group or polling, as being of primary concern to the electorate. You list these very prominently in the left column. Your heading asks the reader to take a brief test to decide for themselves which candidate best represents their views and interests. In the second column from the left, you would list your opponents position on that issue based upon either votes taken or positions stated in speeches and campaign material. In the next column from the left, you list your positions. In the fourth and final column, you ask the reader to list their position and then make the comparison. This comparative piece can be very effective whether done in a tabloid or as a single page supplement in a letter, or as a full page ad in the newspaper. A word of caution, though. Be absolutely certain of your facts regarding your opponent's positions on those issues. The rule of thumb is -if you can't verify it to an impartial observer's satisfaction - don't use it! Radio and television, if available and usable by your campaign, should also be used during the final stages of the campaign. The particular messages communicated should be based on the results of your polling. If your polling indicates you are ahead, keep your commercials low key. Use POS (Person on the Street) types focusing on a cross-section of the district, i.e. older person, young person, blue collar, etc. Basically, these are interviews of people on the street who say positive things about you. Follow up this series with spots of you talking with people in your district or about them from your backyard, or in front of a plant, or in a corn field, etc. about your concern for their problems and your determination to do something about solving them. If the polling shows you leading, keep the spots positive and avoid any reference to your opponent, except by inference. Protect your position and reinforce it. On the other hand, if the polls show you trailing, you must go on the attack. Remember the second criteria essential to victory - favorability rating. If your opponent's favorability rating is above 50%, you must bring it down if you are to win. Frankly, anything, as long as it relates to the issues or addresses the candidate's qualifications to hold a particular office, is fair game. Normally, pejorative attacks are considered by the electorate to be out of order and unless there is a major case of moral turpitude involved, should be verboten. If your campaign has successfully implemented its strategy in the early and middle stages of the campaign, your name ID and favorability ratings should be high enough by this stage to sustain an attack without hurting your credibility as a viable candidate. Remember, your strategy should always be to attack only from a position of strength. If you were to attempt this type of attack strategy before achieving this position, it will almost certainly boomerang and result in a negative favorability rating for you. #ENDCARD #CARD CHAPTER XVI: In summary then, carefully analyze the media characteristics of your district. Discard those which are not viable for your campaign and focus on maximum utilization of those which are available. Remember, they will all accomplish your objectives if used properly. Use your media to supplement and reinforce your campaign's stated objectives in each stage of the campaign. Make sure all of your media activity is working together in a concerted effort with your other campaign activity to accomplish each stage's objectives. Stationary and mobile signs are most effective in building name ID, and to a lesser degree, your favorability rating. Direct mail, tabloids, television and radio are the best tools to both build your favorability rating and to use when it is necessary to attack. The use of frequent polling is the best intelligence gathering device to help you make these determinations. Note: For more information on how to select, schedule, and buy media, as well as how to make maximum use of free media, read THE CAMPAIGN MANUAL. #ENDCARD #CARD CHAPTER XVII: IMPACT OF OTHER RACES; A. Definition. Other races which can impact, or affect, your campaign can be at the local, state, or Federal levels. They can be individual campaigns, such as ballot propositions or initiatives. They are defined as those campaigns which are occurring among the same electorate for which you are campaigning and at the same time. B. Relevant Factors. The relevancy of this factor depends on several conditions. Most notably the level of office you are campaigning for, its relationship to the other campaigns with the potential for impacting your campaign, and your status as an incumbent or challenger. If your campaign is at the top of the ticket, or relatively close, the impact would not be as great as if you were running for a lower level office. Also, if you are an incumbent, your status makes your campaign less vulnerable than if you are a challenger. As stated previously, the top of the ticket tends to draw the highest percentile of voters. As a rule, and remember there are exceptions, the lower down the ballot you go, the stronger the tendency for a drop-off rate. For example, it is not unusual to see 52% of the electorate in a district cast a vote for the Presidential race and only 40-42% cast a vote for a state representative's race on the same ticket. Drop-off rates will usually go from 5% to as much as 50% of the number of votes cast for the top of the ballot. There are a number of reasons why this occurs but the most common is a lack of awareness and/or interest in the races other than at the top of the ticket. Your analysis should have indicated if this is the case in your district's previous campaigns. In an off-year election, the drop-off rate is not as pronounced at the lower ends of the ballot. The voter turn-out rate in itself is usually 10-20% lower than a Presidential year. In an odd year election, the turn-out rate is usually a couple points less than an off-year. If you have done a PIPS analysis, these differentials should have been taken into account for your campaign. In developing your strategy you must take into account the potential impact of these other races, whether positive or negative, into the development of your strategy. C. Analysis of the District. Your analysis of this factor should be done at the earliest stages of the campaign. In some cases, candidates make this assessment even before deciding to run. If their party registration is in the minority in the district, they might decide to wait until a Presidential election year in the hope of picking up a coat-tail effect, i.e. capitalizing on the higher turn-out rates and the popularity of the Presidential candidate, or major state-wide candidate. #ENDCARD #CARD CHAPTER XVII: When doing this analysis be critical in your assessments. Your ability to control this factor is very limited and could influence the development of your game plan. Whether to run a completely independent campaign, or integrate certain activities with the top of the ticket campaign would be your primary consideration. Your political party committee, whether local, state, or Federal, will want you to run an integrated campaign, but this is a decision you have to make in the best interests of your candidacy. D. Developing the Strategy. As a rule of thumb, you should always plan on running your campaign independently of any other campaign. Your strategy should be designed to ensure your chances of receiving the amount of votes necessary to win. To the extent that alliances with other campaigns are of demonstrable value to your campaign, you could factor them into your plans. However, if you do, you risk bringing whatever negatives they have, or might develop, into your campaign. During the last Presidential campaigns, many democratic candidates were forced to distance themselves from Governor Dukakis' campaign in the latter stages when his negative ratings began to rise and the polls showed him losing decisively. This may appear to be cruel and disloyal but in politics you have to play hardball in order to win. A candidate's first loyalty is to the people of the district, the volunteers, and the campaign contributors. Party loyalty must take a back seat to these other considerations. Frankly, it is for this reason many candidates have learned to be suspicious of the advice given by party staff workers and campaign consultants who have come from their ranks. There is always the fear of divided loyalties in this regard. When the interests of your party and/or the candidates at the upper levels on the ballot coincide with yours, then it is mutually advantageous to develop alliances. If they are not, do not allow your campaign to be pressured into developing them. You can be assured if the situation were reversed and your campaign was perceived to be a liability, they wouldn't come near you. When they are mutually advantageous you might consider doing joint literature drops in your precincts, tying them into your phone bank operations (or vice-versa), and participating in joint appearances. Occasionally your campaign, or their's, might want to sponsor joint rallies and/or fund-raising events. It is also relatively standard practice to develop a joint sample ballot mailer for the final week of the campaign listing all of the party's candidates. I previously referred to coat-tail effects and the impact this might have on your race. Unfortunately for many, coat-tails are more of a legend than a reality. Many years ago when machine politics dominated our political process, there was a real value to the top of the tickets' ability to bring along other candidates of their party with them into office. Those days are long gone. Today, with candidates running their own, independent campaigns, it is not unusual to see reverse coat-tails, i.e. the lower level candidates carrying the top of the ticket. In fact, as previously stated, in recent years we have begun to see cases of a reverse drop-off rate - more people in a district voting for the lower level candidates and/or initiatives than for the top of the ticket. The media in general, persists in perpetuating this myth even though the statistical evidence denies it. This is not unusual. There aren't too many reporters today who have the ability or inclination to do their own research. They find it expedient to simply regurgitate the "conventional wisdom" and pass it on to their readers or viewers as fact. Which of course, influences the people whom they are talking with in the first place and the myth goes on. Bottom line, you must factor into your strategic decision making process the impact of other races only with regard to the effect they might have on voter turn-out. All other considerations must be weighed carefully on an individual basis. #ENDCARD #CARD CHAPTER XVIII: IMPACT OF ELECTION REGULATIONS; A. Definition. Election regulations refer to all local, state, and Federal ordinances, laws, or regulations which impact the political process. They run the gamut from local sign ordinances to financial disclosure reports, to providing access to radio and television. All levels of political campaigns are affected by them to some degree. B. Relevant Factors. Before developing your strategy, you must research which set of laws and regulations affect your specific campaign. Little would be more devastating than having a civil or criminal complaint filed against a candidate during the course of the campaign. Even the filing of a complaint would usually be enough to cause irreparable harm to your campaign. Whether you are guilty or not would have little relevancy to the outcome. In some cases, a violation can be a criminal offense subject to fines, imprisonment, or a combination of both. So in addition to the political consequences, there could be serious personal ones as well. C. Analyzing the District. In analyzing your district in this regard, the analysis really begins with the level of office you are seeking. If it is non-Federal, i.e. local or state, you should immediately contact your Secretary of State's office, or State Board of Elections and obtain a copy of your state's regulations regarding filing as a candidate and obtaining a set of the appropriate campaign financial disclosure report forms. In most states, these parallel the Federal regulations and forms. Essentially every candidate for political office, political action committee, party committee, or independent committee must file these reports several times during the election cycle. Basically, the reports detail all contributions received by the campaign and its expenditures. They also list loans, debts and obligations. The Federal forms, known as FEC reports, are available from the Federal Election Commission in Washington, D. C. Once you have received the appropriate forms, you should study them and whatever supporting documentation is sent with them. Note especially what restrictions, if any, are placed on the type and amount of contributions you may receive. The Federal government, for example, currently places a maximum amount of $1,000.00 per individual per election period limit. The time before the primary election, whether or not you are in a contested primary, is considered one period. The time before the general election date is considered another. Political Action Committees (PACs) are limited to contributing $5,000.00 to one individual in each period, and your party's limits are determined each cycle. Corporate contributions are strictly forbidden. #ENDCARD #CARD CHAPTER XVIII: States have similar restrictions for non-Federal candidates. However, many vary as to maximum amounts, and some do permit corporate contributions. Violations of these restrictions are usually criminal offenses subject to fines and/or jail. In some cases you have to file duplicate sets of these reports with another agency, such as your county registrar of voters if a local candidate, and your Secretary of State if a Federal candidate. The reports are normally filed about six times during the campaign year, and twice during the off year. They must be filed indefinitely if any transaction is still pending. **1** Other possible election restrictions which must be taken into account are local laws with regard to the placement and size of signs and areas in which campaigning is not allowed. Each municipality and county will normally have its own laws regulating these two activities. If your district covers more than one, you will have to research all of them. Once learned, factor them into your strategic decision making process. You should also check the Federal Communications Commission (FCC) regulations regarding your rights as a candidate with regard to radio and television. Since the airwaves are technically public property, the Federal Government can mandate, or restrict, their usage. Currently, the rules state that radio and television stations may not discriminate among candidates in the purchase of air time. Whatever they sell to one, they must make available to another. This applies not just to the quantity of time, but to the quality of time as well. In order to ensure compliance, the regulations state that you may request, at any time, what the advance buy schedule is of your opponent, and the station must tell you and give you the opportunity to match it. Another little known provision mandated by Congress, is that stations must sell time to candidates at their lowest commercial rates. This is the discount rate reserved for major advertisers like the auto companies. When developing your strategy and budget, find out what these rates are before making your decisions as to the amount of air time your campaign will be purchasing. D. Developing the Strategy. The various reports which are filed are public records, which means anyone can request access to them and see them. Since the source and amount of contributions provide not only valuable intelligence as to your opponent's base of support but also the amounts which can be spent on various types of campaign activity, your plan must entail a careful review of his or her reports as soon as filed. By carefully studying them, you can determine your opponent's plan of attack and enact counter-measures. It also enables you to tell whether your opponent has the resources to mount an all-out offensive during the final stages of the campaign. Sometimes the sources of the contributions become a campaign issue in themselves. If your opponent is drawing an inordinate amount of contributions from one segment of the community or an industry, the charge can be made that your opponent is not representative of all the people. Depending on the district, this type of an attack can be very effective, especially in times when the ethics of public officials is so much in question. FootNotes: **1** The filing of these reports is very tedious and time-consuming. They must be done precisely right and accurate each time. This is one reason all campaigns should be computerized and have a program like PCMS which does these reports automatically. #ENDCARD #CARD CHAPTER XVIII: At the very least, it usually forces your opponent on the defensive, a position in which a good campaign will always keep an opponent. (Remember the caveat about securing your own base before going on the attack.) If you are running against an incumbent, be sure to study their reports over the past two elections. Try to discern a pattern of campaigning based on their expenditures. What types of communication are favored? Does your opponent take advantage of the latest techniques and technology available in modern campaigning? Remember, we all tend to be creatures of habit. Once politicians find a formula that works, they are reluctant to change it. Knowing this can be a real advantage. Try to determine not only the types of communication tools used, but the timing as well. Plan your activities accordingly. A sound tenant in campaign strategy is if you can't beat an opponent in a particular skirmish, at the very least, you should neutralize the impact of their activity. If your opponent is an incumbent and consistently drops a mailer in the final stage of the campaign lauding their accomplishments during the previous term, it would be a good time to drop the comparative piece previously mentioned. Or, if the polls warrant, a direct attack piece on your opponents record. In regard to sign and campaigning restrictions, plan your strategy accordingly. Don't order 4 X 8 signs if local ordinances restrict the size to something smaller. However, if they do, check to see if the ordinance restricts only signs on public property or right of ways. Normally they do, which leaves private property available. If this is the case, find supporters who live near major roads who might be willing to put up these signs for the duration of the campaign. If this is prohibited, use magnetic, or roof car signs. I have never seen an ordinance restricting their use. Plan a campaign of having as many volunteers as possible use them on their cars. The point is, if local ordinances restrict this activity, you must find alternative creative ways to accomplish your objective. A final point, during the final four weeks of the campaign, assign a responsible volunteer the job of calling all the radio and TV stations on a daily basis to monitor your opponent's media buy. Plan your campaign budget so you will have the reserves available to match these buys in the final weeks. In the event your opponent attempts a last minute negative attack, be prepared to cut a spot within hours and on the air within 24 hours countering the charge. Never let a serious attack go unanswered. The electorate expects you to defend yourself and an attack unanswered is, in their minds, true until denied. Your message can be a flat denial and an expression of regret that your opponent should stoop to such low gutter tactics in a last minute, desperate attempt to salvage a losing campaign. But the voters of your district are honorable people and will repudiate such shoddy tactics at the polls on election day. In this day of high speed technology, you could cut and air a commercial like this within 3 or 4 hours of the attack. You would simply substitute it for the spots you had already planned to run for two days after the attack. To obtain even more coverage, you would go to a central location, while a staff person is calling all the TV and radio stations to announce an emergency press conference to answer the charges. In summary, as irritating as many of these restrictions can be, a sound strategy can use them in a positive manner. You must first have a thorough understanding of them and an awareness of the alternative methods available within the scope of the restrictions, and still accomplish your primary objectives. #ENDCARD #CARD CHAPTER XIX: IMPACT OF TIME CONSTRAINTS; A. Definition. This consideration refers to all the elements of the campaign which involve functions of timing. It includes the planning phase, the announcement date, the duration of the campaign, the beginning and end of each stage of the campaign, and the time requirements involved for each component of the campaign. B. Relevant Factors. In most business enterprises, timing is a critical consideration. In political campaigns it is crucial. Since campaigns are limited in duration and climax on a single day with its decisive consequences, each hour, of every day takes on critical proportions. In business, there is always tomorrow, in campaigns there is only sorrow. I have already referenced the function of time in building name ID and favorability ratings. Throughout this book, I have referred to almost every element of the strategic decision making process within the context of time. Yet I feel this chapter is one of the most important because, next to finances, timing is so essential, yet so neglected by candidates, especially challengers. One of the reasons many incumbents remain in office so long, is they have learned the value of timing. One campaign ends and within days, they are planning the next. There is no substitute for time. No amount of money will recapture it once it has gone. The physical constraints of man and machinery are unalterable. They have definite limits and must have time to carry out their responsibilities. Almost by definition, a sound campaign strategy implies the time necessary to achieve its objectives. In order to incorporate this crucial factor into the development of your strategy, you must have a thorough understanding of the time requirements of each and every component of the campaign. For example, if your strategy calls for using a phone bank staffed by volunteers, you must know how to calculate the number of volunteers and phone units required to accomplish your objectives within the precise time constraints of the campaign. You must know the lead time required to generate a mailing at any given time. How much lead time is required to plan and execute a major fund-raising event, a press conference, a rally, etc. In THE CAMPAIGN MANUAL, I devote several chapters to this subject with precise formulas to make these calculations. If you are going to be a candidate, or a campaign manager, obtain a copy and study it in detail. If you have the opportunity to attend a campaign training school or seminar, do so. There is so much for you to learn and so relatively little time to learn it. As I personally learned the hard way, twenty years ago, there is much more to being a candidate than having a loyal group of supporters and being on the right side of the issues. C. Analysis of the District. #ENDCARD #CARD CHAPTER XIX: In the chapter on Geographic Characteristics of the District, we covered the time constraints imposed by this particular factor on campaigning. You must now analyze your district in relation to all the other factors which impact timing. For example, what is the availability within your district of the goods and services necessary to implement your planned activities? Graphic shops, printers, mail-processing shops, etc. are just part of what is needed. What facilities are available to hold varying sizes, in terms of attendees, for fund-raising events, debates, rallies, etc.? If there are enough to provide a choice, what are their respective costs and other requirements? Once you have outlined your basic strategy, you must then prepare a time-line. Working backwards from the date of the election, you mark the date for each planned activity. You then continue working backwards from that date and indicate the time requirements necessary for each component of that activity. In order to do this accurately, you will need to know the lead time requirements of the various suppliers who will be involved. More research. You continue in this manner back to the date you decide to be a candidate officially. **1** In analyzing your district, you would find and record the individuals or companies whose services you would need for each activity. To facilitate your budgeting process, you would then obtain estimates for their costs for these services or products. D. Developing the Strategy. Time can be your ally as well as your foe in the campaign. By utilizing it more effectively and efficiently than your opponent, it can help decide the outcome of your campaign. Your strategy should be to take advantage of every hour from the day you decide to become a candidate to the day of the election. If you are financially able to, you should plan on campaigning full time from the day you publicly announce your candidacy. If unable to do this, develop a strategy which relies on surrogates to cover for you at events which you will be unable to attend personally. Maximize the impact of your scheduling during those hours when you are able to campaign personally. This means focusing on events which have the greatest exposure, especially televised events. **2** Develop within your staff and volunteers an appreciation of time. Little things like putting a count down calendar on a wall in the campaign headquarters helps to reinforce this concern. Plan minor events for staff and key volunteers at the beginning of each new stage to keep everyone conscious of the passage of time. Begin your campaign planning at least one full year before the election. Devote the first 3 months to doing the necessary intelligence gathering, or research, outlined in this book. At the same time, organize your basic committees, especially your fund-raising committee. Recruit your staff members, if your plan calls for them, and your key volunteers. Secure and outfit your campaign headquarters. In the Appendix of this book, I have reproduced a check list of things to do before the announcement date. This list first appeared in THE CAMPAIGN MANUAL. FootNotes: **1** THE CAMPAIGN MANUAL contains an extensive discussion on how to develop a time-line and Political Campaign Management Software (PCMS) has the ability to generate a time-line built into its calendar section. **2** There is a section on how to schedule and prioritize events in THE CAMPAIGN MANUAL. #ENDCARD #CARD CHAPTER XIX: Pick a day in February to announce your candidacy and plan a major press conference for it. Have as many of your supporters and family members in attendance as possible. Have a press kit ready for distribution and be prepared to answer questions from the reporters and attendees. The number one question is usually, "Why are you running?" Have a well prepared answer based on positive reasons. Focus on the reasons why people should vote for you - NOT why they shouldn't vote for your opponent. It is said there are only two times in a politician's career when the press is nice to him/her. The day he or she announces their candidacy, and the day they announce their retirement. In between, you're fair game. Take advantage of this one "free" day. If handled well, it will not only set the stage for your campaign, but it might help get you your second one. #ENDCARD #CARD CHAPTER XX: IMPACT OF FINANCIAL CONSTRAINTS; A. Definition. The financial constraints within a campaign are defined as the limitations imposed by the cost of the various elements necessary to accomplish the campaign's objectives. It includes the cost of goods and services, as well as the candidate's ability to finance his or her living expenses throughout the campaign. B. Relevant Factors. Regardless of what particular strategy is developed to accomplish your objectives, unless you can raise the finances necessary to implement that strategy, it will fail. As stated previously, the weapons of a modern campaign are the various types of communication mediums, or devices, available at this time. How effectively you use them is certainly a primary factor in the ultimate outcome of the campaign. But you must have them to use them. Even so-called free media takes money to generate, vis a vis the cost of issuing press releases and holding news conferences. Until the day comes, if ever, when there is public financing for campaigns at all levels, your strategy must include a plan to raise the funds necessary to communicate your messages. There is a direct correlation between the amount of money raised and spent in a campaign and its outcome. Unless a case of scandalous behavior is involved by one of the candidates in the race, or the campaign funds are seriously misspent, the candidate with the most money will invariably win. The cynics refer to this fact as "buying the election." In most cases this is absurd. The days of "walk around," or "street" money are long gone in the vast majority of districts. Money buys communications - period. Without the ability to communicate you cannot win. (Unless something extraordinary happens to your opponent and you win by default.) As has already been pointed out, this is an extremely rare occurrence. Ironically there is a strong self-fulfilling prophecy factor at work in many campaigns. The conventional wisdom says that so and so can't be beat, so people do not contribute the necessary funds to the opponent. Sure enough, without those funds, so and so doesn't lose and the conventional wisdom is proven right. C. Analysis of the District. Before deciding to run for political office, you need to realistically assess your chances of raising the necessary funds to finance your campaign. Starting with yourself, assess you own resources. Do you have the ability to provide the seed money necessary to finance a fund-raising campaign? Are you prepared to commit those resources without hesitation? Do you have the ability to survive financially during the campaign without working? Study the fund-raising results of previous campaigns. How successful were previous candidates in raising funds within the district? There are few outsiders who will contribute funds until you have demonstrated your ability to raise funds in your district. The theory being if members of your community won't support your candidacy indicating their confidence in you and your ability to win, why should they. #ENDCARD #CARD CHAPTER XX: This applies even to your own political party. They too have limited resources to distribute among many candidates. Within the framework of their responsibility, they cannot squander it on losing causes. D. Developing the Strategy. Political campaign consultants know that every campaign requires the development of two game plans. One, is usually called The Finance Plan. It is the operations plan designed to implement your strategy for raising funds. The other is your Campaign Plan detailing the implementation of your campaign strategy. **1** Using the same care you did in developing your campaign strategy, you must also develop your finance strategy. Not only must you have a plan to raise the necessary funds, your plan must incorporate the campaign's time-line, so the funds are there when needed. Before you can develop this strategy, you need to know the budget requirements of implementing your campaign strategy. In other words, your budget should be conditioned on your campaign strategy, not the other way around. A few candidates are able to finance their campaigns with their own resources. The vast majority though must develop a plan which involves the support and assistance of many others. A sound strategy involves breaking down the big problem into a series of little problems and then developing a plan to solve them. The most effective way is to develop a three tiered fund-raising plan. One involving a finance committee whose responsibility it is to focus on large donors and major fund-raising events. The second level involves the community through a direct mail appeal and minor fund-raising events. And the third focuses on raising funds outside the district from individuals, PACs, and party committees. Once you have established your budget, divide the amount among the three levels. A typical division would be 50% raised by level one activities, 35% by level two, and 15% by level three. **2** If you are uncertain as to how to implement these operations, obtain a copy of THE FINANCE MANUAL, or a similar publication. FootNotes: **1** My other two books, THE FINANCE MANUAL and THE CAMPAIGN MANUAL, are essentially operations manuals showing how to do both of these. **2** Level one includes your personal contributions. #ENDCARD #CARD CHAPTER XXI: SUMMARY; A. Once Upon a Time. Once upon a time, in a far off land there lived a noble Baron in a high castle made of solid stone. He was the lord and master off all he surveyed. His subjects were fond of him, though like most subjects, they had their gripes. In a far off corner of the Baron's lands lived a young nobleman. He really didn't like the Baron very much. It seems it had something to do with the tax rates he was levying against the noblemen and the middle class subjects. He decided that he could do a better job of running things if he were the Baron, so he decided to defeat the Baron in combat and become the new Baron. The way he figured things, it wouldn't be so difficult. After all, the subjects were bound to be on his side. They didn't like the tax rates any more than he did. So he threw down his gauntlet and announced his campaign to defeat the Baron. With a small group of loyal followers, he set off for the castle. Unfortunately, he forgot to bring his road map. Along the way he ran into all kinds of nasty obstacles which slowed him down or caused him to detour. Much valuable time was lost and his supplies rapidly dwindled. As he passed through one village after another, he would raise the cry, "Down with the Baron and his oppressive taxes! Follow me to the castle and we shall defeat him and then I'll become the Baron." Well, the further away from his home he was, the more the subjects said, "Who are you?" and "Why should we follow you?" "How can you be so sure you will beat the Baron," or "The Baron is so powerful, he will wipe you out, and then make our lives even more miserable. Besides, he isn't so bad." Well, the nobleman didn't really know what to say to all this, except to repeat his criticisms of the Baron and ask the subjects to follow his lead. A few did and his army marched on. As more and more obstacles were encountered, many of the subjects became disillusioned and left the nobleman's army to return home to their warm, comfortable, split-level cottages. As the date for the battle approached, the nobleman was still struggling to get there. Realizing he was way behind schedule, he ordered his troops into a forced march, causing even more to drop out and leave. Finally he made it to the castle just in time. His troops were exhausted and undernourished. He was low on supplies and armaments. Many of the subjects who left had taken their's with them. He marched up to the castle gates and demanded the Baron surrender to him. The Baron responded by daring him to take the castle. The battle began. All day long it waged. Fortified by the castle's defenses, the nobleman's forces were gradually being picked off. The nobleman tried desperately to force the Baron into the open so they could fight mano y mano. The Baron only laughed. "Never give a sucker an even break," and stayed secure behind the walls. #ENDCARD #CARD CHAPTER XXI: Finally, in desperation, the nobleman forced his supporters to charge the castle. What happened then is too gruesome to recount. It was a total wipe-out. The Baron survived and became stronger than ever. No one seriously challenged his rule for many, many years. Oh, and the nobleman. He survived and made it home. Last heard, he sits by his warm fireplace telling stories to his grandchildren about the time he stormed the castle gates with bare hands to defeat the Baron, each time making himself sound braver and braver. One day, his 6 year old grandson, looked lovingly up to him, and said, "But grandpa, wasn't it stupid to attack a castle with just your fists?" The nobleman, at first taken aback, could only nod his head. Several years later, another nobleman from a different village also had the idea that he would make a better leader than the old Baron. Fed up with high taxes and some new treaties the Baron had entered into with some other Barony's, (which the nobleman was sure would lead to a war) he resolved to challenge the Baron. Unsure how he would do this, he began by studying everything he could find out about the Baron and his fortifications. Back and forth he went across the land, talking with people, exploring the routes, even getting himself invited to the castle for a party. Inside, he made notes of the castle's fortifications and troop strength. He called together some loyal friends and explained what he had in mind, after of course, swearing them to secrecy. They resolved to join him and help him raise the gold necessary to finance a long campaign. While this was going on, the nobleman sent couriers out to all the towns and counties of the Barony. At each church site, or market, the couriers would tack up flyers which had a sketch of the nobleman and a brief description of his background, plus a statement about the way things should be in the Barony. After the nobleman finished his research, he developed a plan which he felt would work. He knew he had to draw the Baron out of the castle and make him fight on open ground if he was going to win. He developed a plan to lay siege to the castle and taunt the Baron until his pride forced him to come out and fight. He kept studying the Baron, learning everything he could about him. The nobleman discovered the Baron had a daughter, who though very ugly, was the apple of her daddy's eye. The Baron worshipped her. Interesting, thought the nobleman, I'll have to remember that. He began to devise his plan. Realizing he had to have a reserve plan in case the first one failed, he decided to investigate a new weapon he had heard about from a traveling minstrel. It seems this new weapon could be fired from a safe distance and had the ability to break down stone. Investigating further, he found the story to be true and made arrangements to secretly obtain one. While these preparations were going on, he sent his supporters to all the villages inquiring of the people, who was loyal to the Baron, who opposed him and who hadn't quite made up their mind. The volunteers explained what the nobleman had in mind and how much better off they would be if the nobleman were the Baron. Little by little, they managed to convince more of the subjects who couldn't make up their minds, to support the nobleman, but only if they were sure he could win. "Fair enough," said the volunteers and away they went. The next day they returned with a copy of the nobleman's battle plan. "Very impressive," said the subjects, not realizing it wasn't the real plan. "May we keep it?" "Sure." said the volunteers, and left, knowing full well the Baron would soon have the copy. #ENDCARD #CARD CHAPTER XXI: Finally the nobleman was ready to advance on the castle. The route having been well scouted, they knew precisely where they were going. The nobleman had some of his advance scouts put up markers along the way, so they could make sure they were on the right path and on schedule. While the main army was marching, the nobleman sent out squads of calvary to hit and run at the Baron's defenses. Always penetrating to find a weak spot, they would hit, run, and hit again. Everywhere the army went, advance troops would lead the way, announcing to the subjects that the nobleman was coming and that he had a secret weapon to defeat the Baron. "Join up with us," they would cry. "Help us to rid the land of this terrible Baron." Well, since the subjects had heard about this fantastic, young, handsome nobleman who spoke of his vision for better days in the Barony, they welcomed his arrival and many joined his army. When the nobleman's army reached the castle, they were refreshed and eager to do battle. The nobleman encamped his army beyond the reach of the Baron's weapons and cut off his source of reinforcements and supplies. The Baron sent out runners to his former allies for help, but the nobleman made it clear he would brook no interference and they stayed neutral. The Baron appealed to his loyal subjects to rise up and help him. Some did, of course, but others held back to see which way the battle was going before they helped anyone. Some subjects are like that, they really don't care who wins, as long as they are on the winning side. The nobleman challenged the Baron to come out and fight mano y mano. The Baron laughed and said, "Come and get me, sucker!" Then the nobleman began to taunt him. Calling him a coward for refusing to fight. Soon the town crier's were picking up the message and the next day's yellings were, "Here Ye, Hear Ye. Baron refuses to fight. Nobleman calls him a chicken. Hear Ye, Hear Ye." The word went out throughout the Barony. This really got the Baron steaming mad. He wanted to charge out and start the battle now, but his advisors held him back and cautioned patience. After all, the old strategy had worked before, they said. It will work again. Seeing this tactic wasn't going to work, the nobleman went into phase two of his plan and began to taunt the Baron, "Hey Baron, I hear you stay holed up in that castle 'cause you have something to hide. Why don't you 'fess up and tell your subjects about it, Baron? What are you trying to hide?" The next day, the town criers were yelling, "Hear Ye, Hear Ye. Baron is hiding something from his subjects. Refuses to answer town crier's questions. Hear Ye, Hear Ye." Well, this really had the Baron fuming. He rallied his troops and came charging out of the castle. His army and the nobleman's army fought one skirmish after another. After a while it began to look as though the nobleman might win, so the Baron and his army beat a hasty retreat back to the safety of the castle. The nobleman had anticipated this. He chased them back to the castle, then sounded the call for his troops to attack the castle. Just like the fake plan called for him to do. "Ha," the Baron thought, "he doesn't know I have a copy of his plan and am ready for this!" He ordered his men to the parapets to prepare the burning oil, while other troops waited to pick off members of the nobleman's army. But then something crazy happened. While most of the Baron's army was on the parapets, the nobleman stopped his army. All of the sudden, out comes this crazy looking weapon. #ENDCARD #CARD CHAPTER XXI: The nobleman's army began firing one salvo after another and no matter how hard they tried, the Baron's men couldn't stop the missiles from chipping away the stone. By nightfall, there were gaping holes all over the wall. The nobleman called out to the Baron, "Tomorrow, we'll fight at dawn on the field of honor and the victor shall be Baron." Sure enough, next morning at dawn, out came the Baron's army and the battle was joined. By nightfall it was over. When all the bodies were counted, the nobleman had won. He occupied the castle, sent the Baron into retirement with a generous pension, and became Baron. He lived happily ever after, until word came of this nobleman in a far off village... B. Moral of the Story. For thousands of years, there have been noblemen and barons fighting for control. Nothing has changed except the weapons used to do the fighting. In trying to think of a way to bring together the chapters of this book, I was feeling frustrated because I didn't know how to re-iterate the points made in each chapter without simply being redundant. The fable occurred to me as a way to make the point, as fables have always done. In essence, what takes place in our short story, takes place in campaigns all over the country. Regrettably, the vast majority of candidates are like the first nobleman. In fact, over 92% of them are like him. I say regrettably, not because I have anything against incumbents but because I believe any system which so permanently ensconces its leaders becomes unresponsive to the will and needs of the people. For seven years I have debated with myself over writing this book. I had always planned to do this one, plus THE FINANCE MANUAL, when I wrote THE CAMPAIGN MANUAL. But I procrastinated because I had a difficult time believing candidates and campaign managers would be willing to do the intensive and exhaustive amount of work required to develop a campaign strategy. I know many political professionals who are paid to do it, who either don't know how or try to get by without doing it. So what would be the sense? Times have changed, though, and candidates and campaign managers are becoming more serious about their campaigns. I decided that whether or not a candidate followed the methodology developed in each chapter, the book would accomplish its objective if it did nothing but slightly raise their consciousness of what needs to be done. The development of campaign strategy is not a hit or miss proposition, it is not an intuitive process. Rather it is more of a scientific process, built upon solid evidence, hard work, with a smidgen of luck thrown in. C. Questions and Answers on Strategy. 1) Is every candidate beatable? Theoretically, yes. Realistically, not really. If a candidate is an incumbent with a high favorability rating and a shrewd campaigner, the odds of a challenger beating that person are extremely low. The challenger would always be playing catch-up. By definition, a shrewd campaigner never takes an opponent for granted. They are campaigning virtually every day they are in office. Reinforcing their name ID and favorability rating through direct mail and constituent service. #ENDCARD #CARD CHAPTER XXI: It's only when an incumbent becomes complacent and predictable, are they truly vulnerable. 2) How should a candidate handle a past indiscretion? By being honest about it. The electorate, by and large, is very fair-minded. They can understand and excuse a past indiscretion, especially one which occurred at a young age. What they are very intolerant of is deceit or hypocrisy. You can be assured whatever happened in your past will surface during the campaign. It is far better for you to bring it out right at the beginning and put it behind you before you start campaigning. 3) Should a candidate take campaign contributions from any legitimate source? Opponents and often, the media, will attempt to make a case of guilt by association. This can be a real political liability if the individual or organization involved is perceived to be a negative factor in your district. Refer back to the discussion on the advantages of political alliances in Chapter XVII. Generally speaking, the rule of thumb is, if you are not sure of the impact, don't take the contribution if there is a chance it would be a liability. 4) What should a candidate do about all the "good" advice received from supporters? This is a difficult situation, especially if the advisor has given, or has the potential, to give a major contribution. If you have done your research thoroughly and developed a sound strategy based on that research, you are the one who is in the best position to judge the merits of any advice and its inclusion in your games plan. Remember a good executive is able to pick and choose from many good ideas and incorporate only those which fit into a long range program to reach an objective. Unless the individual giving the advice has done the same research, they are only seeing a part of the over-all picture. As has already been pointed out, no segment of the campaign operates in a vacuum. An individual who looks at only one problem and tries to apply a generic solution could be doing a real disservice to your campaign. Thank them for their advice, tell them you will consider it and then analyze its impact on the whole campaign. 5) What should a candidate do if repeatedly misquoted in the press? Do not make a public accusation about the media in general, or even the reporter in question. First call the reporter and ask for a face to face meeting to discuss the problem. If unsuccessful, call the editor, or publisher, and again have a private discussion to try and resolve the problem. If this still fails to resolve the problem, ignore the reporter and avoid giving him/her any further interviews unless other members of the press are present. 6) What should a candidate do if unsuccessful in the campaign? Run again. Even a losing candidate has built a formidable base of support. It is much easier the next time around to build on that base. Also, the name ID rating is considerably higher, as is the favorability rating. Plus, the experienced gained is invaluable. Study your previous campaign. Determine precisely what worked and what didn't. Were your objectives met on time? Did you poll enough to measure progress and show up weaknesses in your campaign? Rarely is a loss a result if only one or two factors. Usually it's a series of small things which did not occur as planned that at the time appeared inconsequential, but when added together adversely impacted the game plan. #ENDCARD #CARD EPILOGUE As I stated in the Introduction, this book is not a definitive answer to the development of campaign strategy. There will be many unique situations you will encounter which were not covered here. However, in most of those cases the methodology used in THE CAMPAIGN STRATEGY can be applied to solving even the most unique problems you will encounter. Throughout THE CAMPAIGN STRATEGY, I have frequently referenced a number of tools which can be helpful in implementing your strategy. Please be assured that my intention is not to simply get you to buy more books and software. Quite the opposite, these tools are meant to save you and your campaign money and valuable resources. If nothing else, they will keep you from re-inventing the wheel with all the waste implied in that activity. The investment made in those tools can save your campaign thousands of valuable dollars and countless hours of human resources. Just as you would want the proper and best tools to build a house, so you should have the best tools available to build your campaign. I hope my frankness in these discussions has not offended anyone. That certainly was not my intention. Politics is a serious business. More than even the acquisition of money, the acquisition of power is a driving, passionate force. It is not acquired, nor given up easily. As President Truman so aptly said, "If you can't stand the heat, get out of the kitchen." If you are not prepared to fight with all of your energy and resources, don't begin. S. J. Guzzetta #ENDCARD #CARD EPILOGUE: For Want of a Nail For want of a nail the shoe was lost, For want of the shoe, the horse was lost, For want of the horse, the rider was lost, For want of the rider, the battle was lost, For want of the battle, the kingdom was lost, And all for the want of a horseshoe nail! - Mother Goose - William Rose Ben #ENDCARD #CARD APPENDIX: A. Possible Sources of Assistance. B. Directory of Advertisers. C. SJG&A - Checklist for New Candidate/Client D. Order Form. #ENDCARD #CARD APPENDIX A: Possible Sources of Assistance. 1. Amer. Assn. of Pol. Cons. 1211 Conn. Ave., NW, #506 Washington, DC 20036 (202) 546-1564 2. Clerk of the House H-105 U. S. Capitol Bldg. Washington, DC 20515 (202) 225-7000 3. Democratic Cong. Comm. 430 S. Capitol St., SE Washington, DC 20003 (202) 863-1500 4. Democratic Nat'l. Comm. 430 S. Capitol St., SE Washington, DC 20003 (202) 863-8000 5. Democratic Sen. Comm. 430 S. Capitol St., SE Washington, DC 20003 (202) 224-2447 6. Democratic Study Group 1422 LHOB Washington, DC 20515 (202) 225-5858 7. Federal Election Commission 999 E Street, NW Washington, DC 20463 (202) 376-3120/(800) 424-9530 8. League of Women Voters 1730 M St., NW, 10th Fl. Washington, DC 20036 (202) 429-1965 9. Nat'l. League of Cities 1301 Penn. Ave., NW Washington, DC 20004 (202) 626-3000 10. Nat'l. Rep. Cong. Comm. 320 1st St., SE Washington, DC 20003 (202) 479-7050 11. Nat'l. Rep. Sen. Comm. 425 2nd St., NE Washington, DC 20002 (202) 224-2351 12. Repub. Nat'l Comm. 310 1st St., SE Washington, DC 20003 (202) 863-8500 13. Senate Document Room Senate Hart Office Bldg. SHOB4 Washington, DC 20510 (202) 224-7860 14. Superintendent of Documents U. S. Govt. Printing Office Washington, DC 20402 (202) 783-3238 #ENDCARD #CARD APPENDIX B: Directory of Advertisers. Political Campaign Services S. J. Guzzetta & Associates, P. O. Box 10616, Alexandria, Virginia 22310. (703) 960-4454. Multi-agency. Colby Poster Printing & Screen Process Co., 1332 W. 12th Place, Los Angeles, California 90015-2089. (213) 747-5108. Lawn signs, billboards, bumper stickers, and wire hangers. C. March Miller and Associates, 6114 Sherborn Lane, Springfield, Virginia 22152. (703) 569-1876. Multi-agency, public relations, and fund-raising. Southwest Computer Bureau, Inc., 104-B E. Cornerview Rd., Gonzales, Louisiana 70737. (504) 647-1767. Full range computer services. Campaigns & Elections, James Dwinell, Publisher, 1331 Pennsylvania Avenue, N.W., #12E, Washington, DC 20004. (202) 662-8959. Campaign Magazine. Political Campaign Management Software (PCMS), Political Publishing Company, P. O. Box 4406, Alexandria, Virginia 22303. (800) 562-6624. The Political Resource Directory. Political Resources Inc. (A Division of Carol Hess Associates), P. O. Box 363, Rye, New York 10580. (914) 939-0598 or (800) 423-2673. #ENDCARD #CARD APPENDIX C: SJG&A - CHECKLIST FOR NEW CANDIDATE/CLIENT 1. Prepare and send a complete, detailed biography and self-evaluation of personal strengths/weaknesses. 2. Prepare and send biographies of wife, children, and parents. 3. Prepare and send a statement of at least 1,000 words on why you are running for this office. 4. Prepare and send an appraisal of your opponent, his/her voting record if an incumbent, constituent services, sources of financial and political support, personal and political weaknesses and strengths, etc. 5. If available from your Registrar of Voters, obtain and send a computer tape (9 track, 1600 or 6250 BPI) of all registered voters in District, by Party and Precinct. If not on computer, send raw data. 6. Obtain and send a ZIP code map, or list, of District (available at the Post Office). 7. Obtain and send a Congressional and Legislative Precinct map of District. 8. Develop and send a list showing name, address, phone number of elected officials within the District, identified by Party. 9. Send the names of your County and District Party Chairpersons with statement regarding strength and potential support. 10. Obtain and send previous results of the last two election cycles by Precinct - Presidential, U.S. Senate, U.S. Representative, Governor and Secretary of State, plus the office for which you are running. 11. Prepare a written analysis of the District, describing geographic, demographic, and political boundaries and make-up. Demographics include race, ethnic origin, economic levels, density, etc. 12. Send name, address, telephone number, occupation, and employer of all members of finance and advisory committees. 13. Send 3" x 5" black-and-white glossy photos of self - alone and with family, formal andinformal. 14. Send the name of your committee (recommend your name for office Committee), its officers and P. O. Box number. Ask phone company to reserve a number in the area where headquarters will be located. Obtain bulk permit mailing number from Post Office for 1992. Send number. Note: If you haven't already done so, file your Committee with the Clerk of the House, Washington, DC and the appropriate State office. They will also need to know the name of your Committee's bank and its account number. Suggest opening two accounts - one designated Primary Account and the other General Account. 15. Over holiday period, develop position papers on following subjects: inflation, unemployment, defense, taxes, abortion, school subsidies, crime, drugs, foreign trade, farm problems, business, welfare, arms reduction, balanced budget, and any other subject(s) of particular interest to you or your District. Send by 1/1/92. 16. Develop a list of at least twenty (20) people whom you are absolutely certain will contribute at least $1,000 to your campaign before and after the Primary election. Do the same for those who will give between $500 and $1,000. Send a copy of the list and then begin soliciting them during Nov. and Dec., 1991. Include phone number, occupation, and place of employment. #ENDCARD #CARD APPENDIX C: 17. Develop a list of all potential contributors including friends, relatives, and any kind of acquaintance who might give any amount. Be sure to give complete addresses and phone numbers, plus occupation and place of employment if known. Enter this list and above in computer and send copy by 1/10/92. 18. Send a list of major media outlets in District: radio, TV and newspapers (daily and weekly). Indicate what their past history has been regarding types of coverage for incumbent and challenger. Do they endorse and if so, what is your opinion of the impact the endorsement has on the District? 19. Develop and send a list of all people who will volunteer to work for you on this campaign. Rate them from 1 to 10 (10 being those who will "slave" for you; 1 being those who will put up a yard sign), and be sure to include addresses, occupations, and phone numbers. 20. Send a copy of all telephone books covering your District (Yellow and White pages). 21. Call Congressional Quarterly or LEGI-SLATE in Washington, DC and order a copy of their Opposition Research book on your opponent sent to SJG&A. We will copy pertinent pages and forward to you along with comments. 22. Advise if you have anyone in mind, preferably with campaign experience, to be your Campaign Manager, Field Coordinator, and Campaign Secretary. If you do, ask them to send a biography on themselves before January 15th. If not, let us know by January 1st sowe can begin a search at this end. 23. Contact State and County Party headquarters and see if they will share lists of financial contributors with you. If not, go to Secretary of State's office in State Capitol and make copies of all major State candidates' contributors' lists in the last 4 years and send them to us (unless specifically prohibited by State law). 24. Prepare a list in computer of all Centers of Influence within your District: e.g. church pastors, rabbis, bishops, civic leaders, presidents of civic clubs, editors, station managers, key reporters (print and electronic), directors of service and senior citizen clubs and homes, etc. by 1/15/92. Most of this information is available at City Hall or the Chamber of Commerce. 25. What are your favorite colors? Let us know. 26. Are there any types of campaign activity you have an aversion to, i.e. precinct walking, plant gate, public speaking, debates, etc.? Let us know. 27. How active a role will your spouse, children, or parents play in the campaign? 28. When are your local fairs, parades, or festivals? Let us know by 1/15/92. 29. Are you placing any restrictions on the source or amount of your campaign contributions? Let me know. 30. How much time will you be able to devote to campaigning? Break it down by months starting with January. 31. Make arrangements for a central headquarters and a "storefront" by 1/15/92 to be opened 2/15/92. Central should have at least 4 private office plus a common area - about 2,000 sq.ft. and storefront at least 1 office and 1,500 sq.ft. Provide for utilities. 32. Make arrangements with phone company for 4 lines in rotation plus hold on 5 units (one in each office plus receptionist), 1 dedicated line for computer, and 10 single lines for phone bank in storefront, plus 2 lines for incoming/outgoing calls. Installation on 2/15/92. #ENDCARD #CARD APPENDIX C: 33. Make arrangements for furniture for headquarters. Scrounge wherever possible. 34. Arrange for 2 IBM Selectrics, 1 IBM Memorywriter, 1 medium-sized reproduction machine with 10 bin collator, 1 good tape recorder with phone coupler, 1 used refrigerator, 1 coffee maker, and 1 Pitney-Bowes mailing machine with automatic sealer, all to be delivered 2/15/92. 35. Research main newspaper morgue and make copies of all newspaper articles on opponent during last 4 years. Begin clipping all articles on you and your opponent andmaintain in file. #ENDCARD